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The context to BUCOLICO being outlined in the description field, this summary will outline the determinants, risks and solutions to the issue it wishes to address, i.e. the reintegration of socially excluded individuals in marginal areas. More specifically, it wishes to propose a learning standard contributing to the empowerment of NEETs in rural contexts.DETERMINANTS1. CULTURAL: the North-South Europe divide is owed to a Mediterranean model where young adults:A) experience prolonged permanence within their original family core; synchronous exit from that core and the formation of a new familyB) lack support bridging the education-work transition2. EDUCATIONAL:low-education makes youths vulnerable to job loss. Early school drop out lead to fewer graduates, as in Italy where only 26.9% of 30-34 year olds hold a degree (EU average 39.9%). In addition, highly developed human capital finds less opportunities in the Mediterranean, with 77.3% active 30-34 year old graduates (EU average 87.1%).3. ECONOMIC: A third of young adult jobs were lost in the Mediterranean after the 2007-8 crisis and pre-crisis employment levels had yet to be restored. Young adults are at a greater risk of poverty being less eligible to subsidies than older age groups. 4. GOVERNMENTAL: 0.1% of municipal budgets in Italy is spent on active labour schemes (EU range 1.50-2.25%). Public employment schemes do not improve seekers’ prospects as they tend to have too weak a training element. This is the case of Youth Guarantee in locations such as post-industrial Sardinia, where only 7% of youths completed their apprenticeship as employers thought little of them.COSTS1. ECONOMIC: if unmitigated, NEET figures will add to negative demographics, low natality, emigration, long life expectancy in making ever more inactive citizens throw a greater burden on an ever smaller share of actives. Up to 1 in 5 peak-age workers will be lost by 2030 and dependency (number of inactive/active citizens) will rise from 38% to 70% by 2050. Young adults are strategic. Their shrinking will affect the sustainability of public sector systems such as education, defence, healthcare and pensions. This is happening faster in the Mediterranean where low natality has caused peak-age worker numbers to drop 26% in a decade (EU28 average -7%) and employment is low both at pre-peak (30-34 year olds: Greece 66%, Italy 67%, Spain 74%, Croatia 76%, Cyprus 77%, Malta 78%, EU 79%) and at peak age (40-44 year olds: Greece 72%, Italy 73%, Spain 77%, Croatia 79%, Cyprus 80%, Malta 81%, EU 82%). German pre-peak and peak participation is 84% and 85%.Taking Italy as exemplifying the Mediterranean, two 10-year scenarios open up: A. Worst-case: peakers drop to 2.3 million with a 30% productivity loss in their age group.B. Best-case: peakers' participation rises to 95% to maintain today's absolute number of employed. Case 1 and 2 are unsustainable and impossible to realise. A viable middle-ground solution may be to boost labour participation both at pre-peak and peak age as NEETs – while being a structural element to affluent societies – have slightly but steadily decreased over time. Indeed, youth participation is key to reduce the impact on GDP from above- (2% in Greece, Italy, 1.5% Belgium) to below-OECD average (0.4-0.5% in Scandinavia, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland). 2. SOCIETAL: Inactivity leads to decaying well-being and keeps youths from reaching adulthood markers. Mediterranean NEETs are aware of these costs and are also more afraid of getting to 45 without a job (25.5% of Italian, 10.7% of German youth). Despair leads to apathy which leads to sheltering in gaming and social networking putting them at risk of digital, alcohol or substance addiction/abuse. SOLUTIONS In the absence of natality-encouraging policies and immigration being contentious, Mediterraneanites ought to bolster NEETs' reintegration to widen participation to sustainable levels and rescue them from social exclusion. Education is the way: it beget skills which, in turn, beget employment. Thus, 3 sets of actions are needed:1. Harness the speed of development, where advanced (digital) and non-cognitive skills (creativity and entrepreneurship) demand adaptation by all age groups via upward skilling routes;2. Capsize labour policies from apprenticeships to start-up mentoring; 3. Foster work-life balance. Former NEET-age Mediterranean generation X parent-workers suffered from the high barriers to labour market access of the past as well as from increased flexibility demands and precarious terms offered by present contracts, resulting in only 49% of Italian young women being active (EU average 60%).To this end, BUCOLICO's 5-country strong Partnership of experts will devise 6 Intellectual Outputs to engineer a learning standard tailored to facilitate labour participation and market access among socially excluded individuals/groups in geographical marginal rural areas.
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