35% of Africa, 40% of the sub-Saharan Africa land surface and almost 37% of the member states of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is underlain by weathered and fractured 'basement complex' bedrock which contains groundwater within its weathered mantle (most significant under the 'African erosion surface') and to a lesser extent within rock fractures (most significant under the 'post-African erosion surface'). Achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Africa (MDG Target 7.C: to halve, by 2015, the proportion of the population without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation) is therefore fundamentally reliant on the long-term sustainability of groundwater abstractions from these crystalline basement complex aquifers (BCAs). The incentive for our proposal is a recent reconnaissance analysis of the sustainability of groundwater resources of the BCAs in Malawi (the 'Malawi analysis' of Robins et al 2013). The reconnaissance method for estimating groundwater resource limitation compares estimates of groundwater throughflow and storage depletion with actual abstractions at a coarse scale (100s km2). The analysis raises concern that groundwater abstractions exceed long-term recharge in 4 of the 15 'water resource areas' (WRAs) of Malawi, in parts of both the 'weathered' and 'fractured' BCA environments. This controversial conclusion contrasts with the long and widely held view that resource development from BCAs is limited by low transmissivity, hence through low yield of wells, compounded by widespread technological failure of the well-points themselves. Also, it provides a cautionary perspective on a continent-wide assessment of groundwater 'volumes in place' in Africa by MacDonald et al (2012) who have estimated the BCA resource at 500,000 m3/km2 on the basis of published geological maps and estimates of hydrogeological parameters. Availability and sustainability of the groundwater resource, however, fundamentally require ground-truth measurements and process-based analyses (Edmunds 2012). Cumulative groundwater abstraction has greatly increased across much of SSA over the past 30+ years following numerous rural water development and drought relief programmes. Therefore the Malawi experience could be indicative of groundwater resources sustainability in BCAs more widely throughout SSA. If the Malawi analysis is correct, one important implication is that additional, un-recoverable well-point failure will be expected in the affected regions. This expectation forms the basis for the test we will apply to the Malawi analysis. This proposal therefore addresses the concern that the Malawi experience is indicative for groundwater in BCAs throughout SSA. The principal objective is to test the Malawi analysis, by examining the implications for well-point failure using independent data on well-point occurrence and status (available through WaterAid and the Malawi Ministry of Water Development and Irrigation). Concurrently, we will explore the links between well-point failure, health, poverty and gender issues where resource limitation to sustainability of groundwater well-points has been proposed, using census and aggregated heath data. We will carry out field investigations to refine the analysis of groundwater resource limitation over a smaller area and to develop a preliminary analysis for a selected region in southern Zimbabwe. We will develop a methodology for application to water-use policy and local resource/well-point monitoring. We will stimulate awareness and adoption of the methodologies at a regional Workshop. Hence we will support national mitigation measures, and local management of groundwater use. The project will lead to new estimates of resource limitation in Zimbabwe, new collaborations, and form the basis for wider investigation of resource-limitation across SSA basement complex regions.

PREPARE develops a holistic seismic risk management framework for East Africa and co-produces practical tools and guidelines for enhanced disaster preparedness in close partnerships with local governmental and academic institutions. It aims at overcoming existing barriers to designing seismically resilient infrastructure in least developed countries using advanced risk assessments and suitable low-cost engineering solutions. The first case study focuses on Malawi and then extends to other East African countries. PREPARE is problem-led; actual needs have been identified and informed by local partners. The proposal spans the Schools of Engineering and Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol and Cardiff University, with project partners in Malawi and other East African countries. A major goal of this proposal is to communicate and transfer the body of research to local beneficiaries, allowing for community-based emergency responses and ensuring documentable impacts. PREPARE is composed of four work packages (WPs): WP1 - Development of integrated seismic impact assessment tools for Malawi; WP2 - Tectonic investigations of strain accumulation and release in the Malawi Rift system; WP3 - Seismic vulnerability assessment of Malawian masonry buildings; and WP4 - Expansion of the framework to other East African countries. The aims of WP1 are: to implement a comprehensive earthquake risk impact assessment methodology, with versatile capabilities to update the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability modules, to extend the method by accounting for other earthquake-induced hazards, such as liquefaction and landslide; and to produce seismic hazard-risk outcomes in the form of hazard-risk maps, site-specific seismic design spectra, and seismic design guidelines. The main goal of WP2 is to provide more accurate information regarding the potential earthquake rupture characteristics of the fault systems in Malawi (i.e. location, length and recurrence interval of large earthquakes). The results will be integrated into WP1. WP2-1 will focus on updating the fault map of Malawi, studying how fault segments interact and their relationship to geological fabrics. WP2-2 will focus on mapping the strain using satellite- and ground-based geodetic methods to identify which structures are active and the rate and depth of strain accumulation across them. The main goal of WP3 is to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of Malawian buildings through numerical analyses, supported by experimental data. In WP3-1, surveys will be conducted to gather building information in Malawi. WP3-2 will focus on testing of local bricks and brick wall structures in Malawi, whereas WP3-3 will focus on developing numerical models of typical masonry buildings in Malawi and corresponding seismic fragility models for assessing the earthquake risk (WP1). The primary goals of WP4 are to develop a strain-based seismic hazard model for East Africa, which is quite innovative, and to carry out seismic hazard-risk assessments for East African countries (using the updated tools from WP1).