Climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as storms, heatwaves and droughts. Such events can have devastating societal impacts, and it is becoming increasingly clear that the most impactful disasters are often the result of a complex interplay of multiple physical and societal drivers. Climate attribution, which examines the causal links between extreme events, natural variability, and anthropogenic climate change, can help to unravel this complexity and thereby promote societal preparedness and awareness for climate change impacts. The COMPASS project aims to develop a harmonised, yet flexible, methodological framework for climate and impact attribution of various hazard types. COMPASS will go beyond the current frameworks by bridging the gap from the attribution of single-driver extremes to the attribution of more complex extremes (that is compound, sequences and cascading hazard events) and enabling a shift from a hazard-centred analysis to an impact-centred perspective. Main novelties include event-based hazard and impact modelling using a multi-scale approach, the use of weather type analysis for better understanding the physical drivers that give rise compound extremes, and the use of contextualized storylines to communicate attribution results. The framework will be validated and applied to a set of use cases that cover historical extremes for various hazard types and impact context as well as extreme events happening during the project. COMPASS will lay the scientific foundation for the operational deployment as part of the Copernicus Climate Change Services. The project will create a modular and scalable framework for on-the fly analysis, and thus transferable to other extremes and regions. To promote uptake of the project’s results, data, methods and tools will be made openly available, a web-based demonstrator will showcase the results of the use cases, and clear guideline for attribution will be developed.

Worldwide, water resources management is increasingly challenged by water scarcity and climate change, which can trigger and aggravate other ecological (e.g. pests) and socioeconomic threats (e.g. commodity price fluctuations) via feedback loops and cascading impacts across systems. In this context, planning for the future is rife with uncertainties for which conventional decision-making methods and policies are inadequate. The objective of TRANSCEND is to identify and catalyze the adoption of Transformational Adaptation Policies (TAP) to water scarcity, including innovative allocation systems and economic instruments, that are robust and adaptable to uncertainty and change, while simultaneously achieving equitable and sustainable economic growth and welfare. To this end, TRANSCEND will develop a groundbreaking ecosystem of innovation that combines three key pillars: (i) a knowledge network for stakeholder engagement and knowledge sharing, (ii) an actionable modeling suite that integrates interdisciplinary socio-ecological science and ensemble forecasting to guide TAP design, and (iii) an accounting and monitoring toolbox that supports implementation and enforcement of TAP in practice. TRANSCEND will apply the ecosystem of innovation to design and implement TAP in 7 labs: Júcar River Basin (RB) (Spain); Reno RB (Italy); Tympaki RB (Greece); Nitra RB (Slovakia); Caplina-Mauri-Desaguadero RB (Peru, Chile & Bolivia); Orontes RB (Lebanon, Syria & Turkey); and Mahanadi RB (Indian states of Chhattisgarh & Odisha). TRANSCEND will leverage this diverse set of demonstrators to initiate adoption of the ecosystem of innovation in 8+ inspiration labs, train 160+ transformation agents, and mainstream uncertainty analysis in key national and European Green Deal strategies. This will provide the knowledge and tools to catalyze robust and systemic transformations to water scarcity and climate change globally, with a clear impact pathway towards TAP adoption in 100+ basins by 2030.

Worldwide freshwater resources are under increasing pressures of rapidly intensifying climate change effects putting the availability and quality of water resources and socio-economic developments at risk. River basin organisations need to be prepared. STARS4Water aims at improving the understanding of climate change impacts on water resources availability and the vulnerabilities for ecosystems, society and economic sectors at river basin scale. STARS4Water will develop and deliver new data services and data-driven models for better supporting the decision making on planning on actions for adaptative, resilient and sustainable management of fresh water resources. The project team will work with seven river basin organisations through a co-creation, living lab approach. The new services and models will be co-designed with stakeholders to meet their needs on data and information, ensuring relevance and uptake for use beyond the lifetime of the project. The STARS4Water project includes two distinctive elements: first, the need for an international stakeholder community to address the stakeholders’ needs and requirements and second, the development and application of innovative data and model concepts. New datasets and models offer possibilities for improved projections on water resources availability, and the new insights on links between water, nature, society ask for a broader set of indicators to be considered in decision-making on water management. These novel datasets, models and indicators are not yet fully matured and integrated in current river basin management information tools and decision-making processes. We acknowledge that these elements are of a different nature, being a stakeholder-driven approach and rather science-(data-)driven in the application of novel data and models, respectively. It is the consortium’s firm conviction that for substantial progress in climate change adaptation the two elements need to be combined.

The project will develop well-targeted and sound communication material that raises awareness on our (individual and collective) responsibility and interest in ensuring the sustainability of the ocean and of its ecosystems. The project builds on critical assessments of: (1) existing communication strategies, material and governance that focuses on the ocean; (2) the values, perceptions and understanding of the state, functioning and role of the ocean by different types of stakeholders and of the wider public; (3) the (scientific) knowledge that exist on the ocean-human relationship, in particular in terms of ecosystem services that can be delivered by ocean ecosystems and support (future) development opportunities and blue growth and of pressures that are imposed on the oceans. These critical assessments will help identifying priority target groups with key responsibilities and interests in the state of our oceans - today and in the future. Within a participatory process involving the stakeholders of the knowledge creation & sharing system from four European marine regions (Baltic Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Northern Sea and Atlantic _ including in its transatlantic dimension), and building on the scientific knowledge-base established and on project-dedicated IT strucure/platform, the project will then develop and test under real conditions innovative communication tools. Key principles guiding this development will be interactivity, mutual learning, creativity and entertainment. Finally, specific activities will be performed for ensuring proposed communication tools are made accessible and available to their future users in Europe but also elswhere.