There are a wide range of natural hazards that impact communities living within, and at the edge of the Himalayan mountains; these are dominated by earthquakes, landslides and floods. In order to reduce the risk from landslides and floods, communities have developed early warning systems to downstream villages and towns, enabling pre-planned responses. Early warning systems require local authorities to be aware of potential dangers. For example, a steep hillslope that is known to be unstable with evidence of past landslides should be monitored, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. However, in order for the local District Disaster Management Authorities (DDMAs) to know where to monitor, medium-term forecasts of the likely risk from different hazards need to be known. For example, certain areas are more prone to earthquakes, and others to landslides and flashfloods. If these risks from different hazards remain constant through time, then the forecasts and monitoring for each community remains steady. However, hazards do not act in isolation, but form cascades, each event triggering another. As a result, the risk from multiple hazards is not stable, but dynamic, and changes in response to upstream triggers. For example a landslide, that leads to a dam that breaks out to form a debris flow that then increases subsequent risk to floods due to choking of river channels with sand and gravel. This project aims to provide the first fully quantitative forecasts of multihazard cascades using a range of new modelling techniques constrained by a history of field observations from the Garwhal Himalaya, Uttarakhand. This area has been devastated by recent landslides and flashfloods such as the Kedarnath disaster in 2013 and the Chomli landslide in 2021. Thick accumulations of sediment in these steep mountain valleys are known as 'sediment bombs' as they pose a danger to downstream communities; such sediment bombs may form where glaciers retreat or where landslides block valleys. In this project, the Indian and UK teams will combine to integrate new methodologies from digital topography, remote sensing, computer models and field monitoring to understand how sediment yield from glaciers and landslides initiate sediment bombs, and how these accumulations are then mobilised to form debris flows, flash floods and downstream flooding. Through understanding the distribution and rates involved in these processes, we will generate medium term forecasts that feed into early warning systems developed in the communities of the Alaknanda Valley. The approach as outlined above suggests that the physical science models will be the sole input into consideration of dynamic risk; but it can't be as simple as that. The communities that live with this risk, and the DDMAs that manage the early warning systems have to be involved in the generation and iteration of the scientific methodology. Consequently, we are working with social scientists in the UK and India who have experience working with communities in the Himalaya through workshops and interviews that respect the diverse cultural, ethnic and gender-based perspectives. By the end of the project, we will have generated a decisional workflow for district authorities that integrates dynamic risk into their medium term forecasts in response to cascading hazards. Having demonstrated this process in the Garwhal Himalaya, we intend to work with the National Disaster Management Authorities in India and Nepal to promote national strategies for dynamic risk assessment.

As a core human capability, creative product design has the capacity to change the physical environment by envisioning, planning and executing solutions to real-world problems that can generate wealth and provide employment (IDSA 2015). Through the development of dedicated methods/tools, design activity has reached high levels of sophistication in the developed world, where outcomes have a major impact on quality of life embodied in the functionality of manufactured products and contribution to wealth generation/employment through a supply chain economy (Proximity Design, 2014). However, the economic and social benefits of such approaches remain problematic in ODA recipient countries due to a lack of appropriate training and education in opportunities and nature of the creative process. This project integrates the distinctive and emerging methods of arts and humanities research in creative product design to share, discuss, co-create and envisage ways in which the discipline can contribute to key areas of the UN2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development i.e. "emerging creative economies, creative practices.....and building on local crafts, products, expertise and experience" (United Nations 2015). The ultimate outcome is to provide employment to tackle poverty as identified in the UK Government Aid Strategy 9 (Department for International Development, 2015). The proposal exploits the PI and CI's expertise in the use of design to support product development for both developed and developing economies by facilitating the identification and application of approaches that are appropriate for ODA recipient countries. It builds on a recent PhD undertaken by the CI who has direct, first-hand experience of the key issues through field work in Myanmar. The project outcomes will be achieved via a six phase network-driven approach that promotes shared learning and dissemination of outcomes: Phase 1 - Establish latest thinking in the use of design-based approaches for creative product design in the four levels of ODA recipient country Phase 2 - Collate case study examples of creative product design undertaken in the four levels of ODA recipient country that effectively address opportunities/challenges Phase 3 - Deliver a UK networking event to explore the challenges and opportunities for creative product development in ODA recipient countries through the presentation/discussion of the Phase 1 case studies; generation of an approach for best practice; exploration/testing of this through a co-design task for a problem/issue/opportunity identified for each of the ODA recipient country (four design briefs); identify a consensus-driven approach for roll-out to all ODA recipient countries Phase 4 - Translate the consensus-driven approach and case studies/designed outcomes into an interactive website, video and booklet for dissemination at a launch event in each of the four levels of ODA recipient country plus distribution to key representatives (academic/government/business) in all 146 ODA recipient countries Phase 5 - Reflect on all project activities and identify opportunities to further extend the work through further applications for funding The outcomes from the project will be embodied in an interactive website and printed booklet that has relevance for anyone wishing to use creative product design in ODA recipient countries to address problems/issues/opportunities and create employment (direct/indirect) that will ultimately contribute to the alleviation of poverty as identified in the UN2030 Agenda. The outcomes from the network will be embodied in the distributed resources, with the interactive website continuing to develop beyond the six month project through the uploading of case studies that demonstrate the successful application of the identified approaches and edited/maintained on a voluntary basis by the PI/CI.

The glaciers and snowfields of the Himalayan mountain range provide meltwater that is critical for the many millions of people living in downstream areas, in Pakistan, India, Nepal and Bhutan for example. Their predominantly subsistence, agriculturally-based economies are entirely dependent on this supply of water during the dry (winter) season. These natural reservoirs are receding in the face of a warming climate, threatening food security in years to come. It is critical that vulnerable communities start to plan now for future water shortages, and develop simple but effective methods for harvesting and storing water during the rainy season, for use when the river discharge is low. At the present time, how the contribution of meltwater to river flows varies through space and time is poorly quantified. We need to know this to be able to identify those communities that will experience the greatest reductions in water supply in the future. We also know relatively little about the communities that depend most on this resource - those in the mountains, generally marginalised from wider society and the national economy. We need to better understand their needs so that we can work with them to develop adaptation solutions. Our understanding of the history behind their current methods for irrigation and water capture and the politics and arrangements that determine their access to water is also very superficial. This needs to be better defined so that we can respect community heritage and offer adaptation solutions that are successfully integrated into current practices and are, ultimately, sustainable. HARVEST will explore the methods with which we can close these knowledge gaps. Our team comprises scientists, social scientists, an environmental historian, an engineer, and an expert in public health. Critically, we are working with Practical Action, a leading international NGO based in Kathmandu, with expertise in grassroots development and poverty alleviation. The scientists will take river water samples at different times of the year and at different locations, and use the concentration of stable isotopes (i.e. chemical signatures) to determine how much of the flow comprises snow and ice melt. This will provide quantitative data to identify those communities that will experience the greatest future water shortages. The social scientists will design and implement a household survey that will explore current issues of water use in the mountains, as well as irrigation and water harvesting/storage methods. The environmental historian will explore the British and Nepali archives for information on water use in Nepal, and establish the political and social contexts on which current access arrangements operate. Our engineer will work with the health scientist and Practical Action to identify adaptation measures that have been used in the past in rural mountain communities, and establish mechanisms by which the findings of the research team can be best used within these communities. Rather than offering particular solutions at this stage, the HARVEST team will have gathered experience and knowledge that will form the foundation of a broader-scale project across the Himalaya in a future funding call.

Rivers that discharge from mountain ranges support vast populations that depend on annual floods for irrigation and nutrient supply to crops. The largest population of this type is that of the Gangetic Plains where nearly 10% of the world's population depend on waters from the Himalaya. Much of this area is also characterised by extremely low income levels such as in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar states in India, and in Nepal. Consequently, these regions have long been supported through the UK's overseas aid budget. Unfortunately, many of the Himalayan rivers are also the source of devastating floods, with effects further compounded where isolated communities, living on the river floodplain, lack disaster risk management and resilience measures. In Nepal, flood disasters were responsible for over USD 130 million losses and nearly one third of all natural disaster-related deaths between 2001 and 20081; this doesn't include the downstream cross-border impact in India. More recent examples include the 2008 Kosi River avulsion that killed hundreds and rendered millions homeless, and the 2013 Uttarakhand floods that killed over 5000 people and is viewed as India's worst natural disaster since 2004. Most of the damage generated by the Uttarakhand floods resulted from major zones of erosion and deposition during peak discharge of the channel; studies by the Edinburgh Land Surface Dynamics group demonstrated that the main signal of change driven by the dynamic nature of the alluvial topography during flooding was broadly predictable. The dangers of changing river morphology during floods has also been highlighted following major earthquakes such as the 2008 Wenchuan and 1999 Taiwan earthquakes where sediment released into the rivers from landslides caused river beds to rise by up to 18 m causing devastating floods in the years following the earthquakes due to re-routing of river courses. The 'seismic gap' left in western Nepal following the 2015 Gorkha earthquake suggests that readiness for a comparable cascade of flood hazards following a major earthquake is imperative for this region. In this proposal, we aim to build a unique interdisciplinary team based at Edinburgh University combining engineers, geomorphologists, social anthropologists, human geographers and sustainable building designers. This team will rise to the challenge of how academic research can help develop local economies and save lives in response to flooding in the Nepalese plains. We are working closely with the international NGO Practical Action who work with local communities and government bodies to improve resilience. Through a series of workshops in Nepal, we will understand the needs of the communities and the nature of the science that needs to be generated. We will use fieldwork in the region accompanied by the generation of remotely sensed topographic maps to reconstruct past floods, and as input into predictive models. Working with engineers, we will build models that not only predict the passage of flood waters, but also the changing shape of the underlying river bed during these enormous floods. Having developed predictions for future floods, we will also investigate the range of local building constructions that will enable more sustainable flood platforms to be constructed. This project represents the foundations for the expansion of this strategy into the future with applications all the way along the Himalayan floodplains in collaboration with the range of different ethnic and political contexts. Through

This research project is concerned with humanity's potential to achieve low carbon, socially just cities. It focuses on rapidly urbanising areas in the global south, where climate change vulnerabilities and access to energy are pressing issues. The contention in this proposal is that achieving low carbon, socially just cities will require a spatial, socio-economic and political transformation. This transformation will depend on our ability to find low carbon development pathways for urban energy systems. Changes in energy systems and urbanisation processes are mutually dependent. Thus, devising sustainable development pathways towards low carbon and socially just cities will require new methods to analyse the shared history and geography of energy systems and cities. Sociotechnical perspectives focus on the heterogeneous nature of energy systems, including both social components (such as energy use norms and behaviour, economic activities, and government regulations) and technical components (such as generation technologies, distribution networks and home appliances). These perspectives have already advanced our understanding of sustainable development pathways identifying structural factors which prevent the rapid transition towards sustainable energy systems and devising institutional processes to catalyse transitions. These theories, however, have not fully engaged with the spatial, historical and political aspects of those transitions. Moreover, few of these studies have linked the operation of energy systems with their impacts on the everyday life of people in cities in the global South. In this project, I join sociotechnical theories of energy and theories which look at the distribution and histories of energy and everyday life in cities in a new concept called Urban Energy Landscapes (UELs). UELs also draw attention to the equity issues raised by the production, transmission and consumption of energy in cities in the global South, in particular, to the unequal distribution of access to energy services and environmental burdens within those UELs. The contention of this project is that focusing on UELs will help to identify barriers and opportunities for sustainable development pathways towards low carbon, socially just cities. The proposal has a strong methodological component because it is concerned with the lack of methodologies to understand UELs. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) handle large amounts of data in databases where location is explicitly included as part of the data. They enable the identification of urban land use features and spatial changes. However, they can also hide important information regarding the complex interactions of social and technical elements in UELs and the political aspects of urban and energy development. This project will develop a new methodology which will combine critical applications of GIS and qualitative research methods. The methodology will be tested in four cities: Maputo (Mozambique), Lima (Peru), Bangalore (India), and Nanchang (China). A comparative analysis of the cases will help identifying barriers and opportunities for achieving low carbon cities. The project will build on collaborations with and mentorship from world-leading experts in energy and cities. Yet, with this project, I will develop a new conceptual framework and methodology connecting previously separated strands of research. The research will contribute evidence for policy-making on energy and development and practical tools for urban development planning that will be disseminated through partnerships with international organisations, charities and businesses working to increase energy access and improving the sustainability of energy in cities. Overall, the project will seek to make a difference in understanding how energy is produced, transmitted and consumed in cities in the global south, by identifying opportunities for a low carbon, socially-just future.