Volcanic eruptions are an ever-present hazard facing society both in terms of their immediate devastation, but also global disruption to flights, trade and economic development. While petrological insights into magmatic processes are possible following an eruption, as yet there exists no way to link present day volcano-monitoring techniques to an understanding of the magmatic plumbing system, and its effects on the duration, size and magnitude of the volcanic eruptions prior to and during volcanic crises. This proposal seeks to establish a multidisciplinary team of Earth scientists to attempt to link the geophysical observations of upper crustal stress state (compression, extension, transtension) with petrological inferences of magma storage conditions. Once established, this team will look to undertake some initial data collection of the time it takes for magma to rise and be erupted, at carefully selected target volcanoes which are known to be in different stress states. Longer-term, this new team of experts will look to use the initial data collected from this Global Partnerships Seedcorn Fund to establish a series of crustal stress-magmatism archetypes to be tested and applied at volcanic arcs worldwide. There is potential that in the future, timescales between unrest and eruption at poorly-monitored volcanoes could be better anticipated based on volcanism-stress archetypes coupled with remote observations of upper crustal stress states.

This research proposal links to the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 396 which will drill several scientific research boreholes along the offshore Norwegian continental margin. The Norwegian margin is one of the best studied examples of a passive rifted margin associated with voluminous magmatic activity. However, key scientific questions associated with the origins of magmatism and its impacts on global climate at this time remain. The objectives of the cruise cover a wide range of high impact scientific research areas including assessing the role of the Iceland plume on excess magmatism, understanding along axis variations in magmatism, determining the nature and depositional environment of volcanism, and assessing the role that magmatism played in driving global warming (Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum or PETM) at this time. A secondary goal of the expedition is to appraise the potential of permanent carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the volcanic sequences. This research project will address several of the EXP 396 objectives focusing on three specific areas of research. Objective 1: Understanding the interplay between magmatism and eruption environments during rifting. Volcanic cores will be used to appraise how volcanism and the environment of eruption changed in space and time during continental rifting. Detailed facies analyses of the volcanic sequences will be undertaken to reveal whether the eruptions occurred within subaerial, marginal, or subaqueous environments. Geophysical logging data will be used alongside core observations to build a comprehensive and integrated volcanological model for the borehole penetrated sequences. The geophysical volcanic model will then be used to calibrate extensive 3D seismic surveys in the area which in turn will enable mapping of volcanic facies over large parts of the margin. This aspect of the project will enable new understanding about how extrusive magmatism is linked to margin scale base-level changes which in turn will give new data for testing competing models for volcanic rifted margin evolution such as plume-pulsing versus plate tectonics. Objective 2: Appraising the carbon capture and storage (CCS) potential of break-up related volcanic sequences. Pilot studies on Iceland (Carbfix) and in Washington State, USA (Wallula), have demonstrated that CO2 reacts with basaltic rocks to form carbonate minerals, effectively permanently storing the CO2. Permanent storage clearly reduces the risk of leakage and has been demonstrated to occur over incredibly rapid timescales on the order of a few years. The huge volume of offshore break-up related volcanic sequences that will be tested during EXP. 396 could offer an alternative storage site for permanent storage of anthropogenic CO2. Volcanic sequences can have good reservoir properties, however, extensive weathering and alteration can also significantly diminish and clog up the pore structure. Within this study petrophysical analyses of volcanic cores will be performed to give important new constraints on the reservoir potential and sealing capacity of the Atlantic margin volcanic sequences. Objective 3: Understanding the temporal and spatial evolution of magma petrogenesis within the province and its potential role in driving the PETM. Geochemical analyses from the various volcanic sequences will be used to appraise whether elevated and/or fluctuating mantle temperatures led to excess magmatism in mid-Norway. Regional datasets will be compared to appraise how melting changed along the margin and whether these results resolve competing plume or plate tectonic models. Some sites will target hydrothermal vents associated with break-up related intrusions which caused massive emissions of Greenhouse gases. High resolution core-log-seismic appraisal coupled with isotopic dating of the ejecta layers will hopefully improve the age constraints on these processes in order to better appraise links to the PETM.

Nuclear power is low-carbon and green energy. It presently provides about 10% of the world's electricity and 20% of the UK's electricity, contributing enormously to global Net Zero emissions. Nuclear power will continue to play an important role in the global transition to a low carbon economy. However, one major disadvantage of nuclear power is that its generation process produces radioactive waste that can remain hazardous for hundreds of thousands of years. Over the past more than 60 years' utilisation of nuclear power in the UK and worldwide, many radioactive wastes have accumulated, most of which are stored temporarily in storage near nuclear power plants. It is vital for us to deal with the waste to protect human health and the environment. A global consensus has been reached in this area, that is to isolate radioactive waste that is incompatible with surface disposal permanently in suitable underground rock formations (i.e., host rocks) by developing a geological disposal facility (GDF). As also set out in the 2014 White Paper, the UK Government is committed to implementing geological disposal, with work on developing this led by Radioactive Waste Management Ltd (RWM). Developing a GDF relies on a stable rock formation to ensure mechanical stability and barrier function of host rocks. It is therefore essential to understand factors that influence the integrity of rocks. This is challenging partially because of the complexity of rock fractures that are widespread in the Earth upper crust. Although rock mechanical behaviour has a long record of study, attempts to understand the role of fractures on rock deformation still has unresolved issues. For example, natural rock fractures are often dealt with crudely; almost all previous studies of this problem assume rock fractures to be continuous, with zero or very small cohesion that can be neglected. However, it is almost a ubiquitous feature that natural rock fractures in the subsurface are incipient and heterogeneous, with considerable tensile strength and cohesion. This is either due to secondary minerals having recrystallised, bonding fracture surfaces together, or due to rock bridges. This INFORM project will focus on mineral-filled fractures (i.e., veins) that are frequently seen in the subsurface but often ignored or less researched so far. The aim of INFORM is to increase confidence in the design, construction, and operation of GDFs, by developing a mechanics-based multi-scale framework to understand the influence of fracture heterogeneity on the integrity and deformation behaviour of rocks across scales. The framework will integrate imaging analysis, laboratory experiments, numerical modelling, and field observations, to (1) determine factors contributing to fracture heterogeneity across scales, (2) understand the shear and triaxial deformational behaviour of veined rocks considering natural fracture geometry and heterogeneity, and (3) develop a field-scale model for repository structures considering fracture heterogeneity. Unlike most previous studies, which have focused on the influence of mechanical fractures on rock behaviour, INFORM will for the first time investigate the influence of natural veins, and will consider and implement these observations in the modelling of veined rock behaviour applied to a GDF. INFORM will "inform" a wide range of audiences with new insights through correlating micro-scale observations and macro-scale deformation of heterogenous veined and fractured rocks. This will be possible with the strong support of our academic and industrial partners (RWM, UK; Jacobs, UK; Northeastern University, China; GFZ, Germany; Stanford University, USA) and the help of our well-designed outreach and publication plans. INFORM will lead to a more accurate and reliable examination of fracture heterogeneity, which will not only directly benefit GDF R&D, but also broader rock engineering applications (e.g., tunnelling, cavern construction).

Green-energy transition technologies such as carbon storage, geothermal energy extraction, hydrogen storage, and compressed-air energy storage, all rely to some extent on subsurface injection or extraction of fluids. This process of injection and retrieval is well known to industry, as it has been performed all over the world, for decades. Fluid injection processes create mechanical disturbances in the subsurface, leading to local or regional displacements that may result in tremors. In the vast majority of cases, these tremors are imperceptible to humans, and have no effect on engineered structures. Nonetheless, in recent years, low magnitude induced seismic events have had profound consequences on the social acceptance of subsurface technologies, including the halting of natural gas production at the Groningen field in the Netherlands, halting of carbon storage experiments in Spain, halting of geothermal energy projects in Switzerland, and the moratorium on UK onshore gas extraction. In light of the seismic events of increasing severity recently measured during geothermal mining in Cornwall, the need to develop a rigorous fundamental understanding of induced seismicity is clear, significant, and timely, in order to prevent induced seismicity from jeopardising the ability to effectively develop the green energy transition. Most mathematical models that are used to predict and understand tremors rely on past observations of natural tremors and earthquakes. However, fluid-driven displacement in the subsurface is a controlled event, in which the properties of the injected fluids and the conditions of injection can be adjusted and optimised to avoid large events from happening. This project aims to develop a fundamental understanding of how the conditions of subsurface rocks, and the way in which fluid is injected in these rocks, affect the amount of seismicity that may be produced. We will analyse in detail the behaviour of fluid-driven seismic events, and will develop a physically realistic model based on computer simulations, novel laboratory experiments, and comprehensive field observations. Our model will characterise the relationships between specific subsurface properties, the nature of the fluid injection, and the severity of the seismic event. These findings will be linked to hazard analysis, to identify the conditions under which processes such as carbon storage, deep geothermal energy extraction, and compressed-air energy storage, are more or less likely to create tremors. We will also investigate how to best share our scientific findings with regulators and the general public, so as to maximise the impact of this work. This project will lead to an improved understanding of the processes and conditions that underpin the severity of induced seismic events, with a vision of developing strategies that will improve our ability to prevent and control these events. This project will also provide the scientific basis to improve precision and cost-effectiveness of scientific instruments that are used to monitor the subsurface, so that we can identify tremors as they occur, and better interpret what is causing them as we observe them. In the short term, we need to develop these models so that regulators and decision-makers can develop policies based on scientific evidence, using a variety of analysis tools that inter-validate each other, thereby ensuring that their predictions are robust. This is an important step in supporting the ability of developing a resilient, diversified, sustainable, and environmentally responsible energy security strategy for the UK. In the long term, by creating confidence in the understanding of these subsurface events, and demonstrating evidence of our ability to control them, we will lead the UK into an era where humans understand why certain seismic events have occurred, allowing them to potentially develop mechanisms to forecast their occurrence, and reduce their severity.

The UK along with the rest of the world is becoming increasingly dependent on technological systems, including satellite communications, global positioning systems, and power grids, that are at risk from space weather. Many space weather hazards originate in the ionosphere, the ionised upper part of the atmosphere at altitudes of 90 km and above, where solar wind energy channelled by the Earth's magnetic field can cause a variety of unpredictable and deleterious effects. It causes electrical currents to flow, which heat the atmosphere in a process known as Joule heating, which in turn can cause the atmosphere to expand upwards, producing drag on satellites, hence making their orbits harder to predict and reducing their lifetimes. It produces horizontal motions of the ionosphere which modify the neutral winds in the thermosphere through friction. It produces the auroras, associated with particle precipitation from the magnetosphere above, which modify the ionospheric structure. Moreover, it gives rise to plasma instabilities which cause the ionosphere to become corrugated, scattering radio waves from satellites consequently disturbing communications and GPS. Although the large-scale distribution of such space weather hazards is relatively well reproduced in global circulation models, the physics occurring on spatial scales smaller than the model grid is poorly understood, which holds back improvements in forecasting. The FINESSE project will exploit a new and unique NERC-funded incoherent scatter radar system, EISCAT_3D, located in northern Scandinavia, to study these sub-grid space weather scales. EISCAT_3D will be able to determine the ionospheric structure in a box roughly 200 km to a side horizontally and 800 km vertically, at an unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution, to image the processes leading to space weather effects. FINESSE will also exploit a next-generation coherent scatter radar to measure ionospheric motions, three neutral wind imagers to measure the interaction between the thermosphere and the ionosphere, three all-sky auroral cameras to view regions of precipitation from the magnetosphere above, a fine-scale auroral imager to observe auroral structures on spatial and temporal scales even finer than EISCAT_3D can probe, and a radio telescope and network of GPS receivers to look at the scintillation of radio signals from both cosmic sources and satellites. The main aims of FINESSE are as follows. 1) To determine the small-scale sources of Joule heating, to place these within the context of the larger picture of polar auroral disturbances, to determine the link between Joule heating and satellite drag, and to incorporate these results to improve forecast models. 2) To determine the cause of small-scale ionospheric structuring, and to understand how this leads to scintillation of radio signals. 3) To probe auroral dynamics at the very smallest temporal and spatial scales to understand the physics of coupling between the magnetosphere and ionosphere, the role auroral processes play in heating and structuring the ionosphere and atmosphere, and the instability that leads to substorms (explosive releases of energy into the nightside auroral ionosphere). FINESSE will liaise with space weather forecasters and other stakeholders to disseminate this greater understanding of small-scale processes in producing space weather hazards and to translate it into significant economic benefit to the UK.