The GCRF African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (GCRF African-SWIFT) programme aims to develop a sustainable research capability in tropical weather forecasting which will enhance the livelihood of African populations and improve the economies of their countries. Improved forecasts will address key aspects of the UK Aid strategy. The results will be translatable beyond the partner countries to other nations of Africa and the developing world more widely. In order to improve African weather prediction, fundamental scientific research is needed, in the physics of tropical weather systems, evaluation and presentation of complex model and satellite data, and communication and exploitation of forecasts. The programme will develop research capability to yield ongoing forecasting improvements in the coming decades. The overall aims of the project are to: I. Make research advances needed for significant improvements in weather forecasts in Africa, and the tropics more generally, from the hourly to the seasonal timescale. II. Build capability among UK and African partners to improve, maintain and evaluate operational tropical forecasts in future. III. Assist African partners in developing capacity for sustained training of forecasters, in partnership with African academic institutions and international agencies. Our strategy to increase research capability with societal impact is to build upon existing partnerships between forecasting centres and universities within four partner countries (Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya) and within the UK. In-country partnerships combine the strengths of academic and operational perspectives and provide sustainability. The project is embedded within the long-term structures and strategies for international coordination for the region. Specifically, our programme addresses the aims of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO; project partner). The potential applications and benefits are: A. New research capability in observing, modelling and evaluating forecasts of tropical high-impact weather; B. Robust networks of African scientists with capability to advance the science in this field, and pull the science through into operational impact; C. Significant improvements in weather forecasts, as evaluated using tested methods; D. New forecasting tools used operationally for short-term (0-120h) and S2S prediction; E. Significant impact on the regional strategy for provision of user-focussed, quality-controlled weather forecasts, as overseen by the WMO; F. More effective use of weather forecasts to the benefit of African people and nations.

Biological productivity (the growth of phytoplankton) is limited by the availability of iron (Fe) in at least 30% of the ocean. Fe is so insoluble in seawater that the large amounts entering from rivers cannot be transported far from the continental margins. The supply of Fe from dust falling on the ocean becomes the primary way to add Fe (and other elements important to life such as phosphorus) to the open ocean. The pattern and flux of Fe from the atmosphere to the surface ocean is therefore important for ocean ecosystems, and for the global carbon cycle (because ocean life consumes carbon). Despite this importance, the flux of dust and of its incorporated metals to the ocean is poorly known. It is challenging to measure this flux directly, and other observational approaches require quite fundamental assumptions, which limit accuracy. At present, therefore, most estimates of dust flux rely on atmospheric models, and are generally considered to be uncertain by a factor of ten, particularly in remote regions. In the proposed work, we will assess and use a new approach to quantify the inputs of dust and its associated micronutrients to the ocean. This approach relies on measurements of two biologically inactive, partially soluble components of dust: thorium (Th) and aluminium (Al). Two isotopes of Th are used in this assessment. 232Th, is present in continental rocks. If found dissolved in the open ocean, 232Th must have been recently added by dissolution of dust transported from the continents. Another isotope, 230Th, is formed within seawater by the decay of a uranium isotope. Its concentration in seawater reflects a competition between this known rate of formation, and removal due to its insoluble nature. We can therefore use 230Th to assess the removal rate of Th, including 232Th, from seawater. The 232Th removed must be replaced by input from dust to maintain the observed 232Th concentrations, so we can calculate the input of dust. There are two main challenges to the reconstruction of dust fluxes from Th isotopes. One is that the solubility of Th in dust, a critical term in the flux calculation, is not well known. Our new results indicate that Th is amongst a small group of elements whose solubility is very little impacted by transport of dust through the atmosphere, while the solubilities of Fe, Al and several other biologically active elements are all altered greatly during transport. Using aerosol samples collected on a series of research cruises, and at a sampling tower on Bermuda, we will assess the solubility of Th, the controls on how that varies during atmospheric transport, and its relationship to changes in Al and Fe solubility. We will also conduct laboratory studies on desert dust parent soils aimed at better understanding the unusual Th solubility in dust aerosols. Dust fluxes can also be calculated from dissolved Al concentrations, but these estimates are affected by changes in Al solubility during atmospheric transport. The second challenge is that we do not know how far 232Th from the continents might travel after input at the coast. We will address this by incorporating 232Th into an ocean model. Such models have a proven ability to reconstruct 230Th, and we will develop them to also model 232Th, and to indicate where 232Th is dominated by coastal inputs rather than by dust. These models will also be used to assess the uncertainty in using Th isotopes to reconstruct dust inputs. A large number of observations of Th isotopes in seawater has recently been measured during an international programme: GEOTRACES. We will add data from two further cruises, to complete a detailed coverage of Th and Al measurements for the Atlantic Ocean. Combined use of the Th and Al tracers will therefore allow us to produce robust maps of dust inputs (from Th) and soluble Fe inputs (by taking account of the changes in solubility during transport using Al) for the Atlantic (with associated maps of uncertainty).

Title: Process analysis, observations and modelling - Integrated solutions for cleaner air for Delhi (PROMOTE) Air pollution has been widely recognized as a major global health risk. Given that 1 in every 10 total deaths can be attributed to air pollution (World Bank 2016), there are major implications for the cities of the world. As part of the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), Delhi is subject to air pollution from a complex mixture of sources. As a consequence of the complex emissions and meteorology of the region, particulate matter (PM as PM10 and PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx, NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and black carbon (BC) all peak during post-monsoon periods and remain elevated during winter making the National Capital Region (NCR) one of the most polluted areas. Open questions remain regarding the inability of models to accurately predict air pollution during winter time fog events and quantifying incoming air pollution from large distances into Delhi. Over 4 years, PROMOTE aims to reduce uncertainties in air quality prediction and forecasting for Delhi by undertaking process orientated observational and modelling analyses and to derive the most effective mitigation solutions for reducing air pollution over the urban and surrounding region. PROMOTE brings together a cross-disciplinary team of leading researchers from India and the UK to deliver the project aims. Its investigations will address three key questions: Q1 What contribution is made by aerosols to the air pollution burden in Delhi? Q2 How does the lower atmospheric boundary layer affect the long range transport of air pollution incoming into Delhi? Q3 What are the most effective emission controls for mitigation interventions that will lead to significant reductions in air pollution and exposure levels over Delhi and the wider National Capital Region? To address the three key questions we will: 1 Examine the contribution of secondary aerosols to the air pollution burden in Delhi during distinct meteorological seasons by developing a new representative model scheme for subtropical urban environments; 2 Investigate how boundary layer interactions lead to high air pollution events during pre-monsoon and stable winter fog periods affecting Delhi; 3 Quantify local, urban and regional contributions to Delhi's air quality through an improved understanding of aerosols, long-range transport and boundary layer processes; 4 Test the Delhi's air quality forecasting system incorporating improved understanding of aerosol pollution and atmospheric boundary layer processs; 5 Develop the first multiscale modelling system for predicting high resolution concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and other pollutants and then provide the analysis for developing effective mitigation strategies for Delhi; 6 Synthesise and translate the outcomes of PROMOTE with other APHH projects to provide datasets for exposure and health studies and contribute to a roadmap for implementing effective local and regional mitigation strategies to meet current and future compliance and health requirements in Delhi and NCR. Through our analysis, we will deliver new knowledge on how local, urban and regional (LRT) sources of air pollution affect Delhi's air quality. With an improved understanding of aerosols and lower atmosphere dynamics, sensitivities between air pollutant concentrations and changes in local (e.g. traffic, industrial) and regional contributions will be quantified with a new multiscale modelling system for recommending interventions and mitigation options for Delhi.

There is a recognised gap in the communication of information generated by climate scientists and evidence needed by policy makers, in part because influencing policy through research is complex and requires skills that might not be valued or common in research systems. The current situation of our Earth's system, together with the social movements for climate justice, urge a step change in how policy and scientists approach Climate Change. Through this fellowship, I will develop new routes for impact in palaeoclimatology and will lead a vital step change in my field of research. Annual to decadal climate predictions may offer important information to Climate Services and Environmental Agencies, which would help guide short- and medium-term climate change strategies. For example, a better knowledge of the frequency and magnitude of floods in the UK. Decadal climate predictions are skilful for surface temperature, but confidence in projections of atmospheric pattern and the associated ecosystem response are less robust. This is, in part, because the amplitude of the decadal climate response is difficult to verify by the available instrumental data (reanalyses), which only goes back a century or two, and the impact of superimposed low-frequency variability might not be well represented. One way to provide more information on the decadal climate response is to include high-temporal resolution palaeoclimate timeseries in reanalyses. So far, the availability of proxy data suitable for this purpose is limited by the nature of the data (qualitative vs quantitative), chronological constrains (dating uncertainty and time-resolution of the proxy records) and geographical location of the proxy records (i.e limited to specific climate regions as ice-cores and corals), hence the study of decadal climate variability in the past is still in its infancy. In order to make developments in this field, I will lead an international research team that integrates palaeoclimatologists and climate modellers. We will combine emerging methodological approaches in proxy developments, chronological constraints, statistical tools and data-model comparison to provide advanced information of past decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic-European region such as shifting atmospheric circulation and occurrence of extreme weather events; and we will develop emergent constraints based on past climate scenarios to be applied to decadal prediction systems. Beyond the scientific goals, the fellowship aims at a better integration of palaeo evidence into climate policy to create a step change in how long-term climate data are viewed and used by policy and stakeholders. We will create a network of policy advisers, policy makers and other end users willing to engage. A co-development model of research will be adopted to develop shared understanding to design the research outputs, and ensure the research contributes to the specific and current needs of the decision makers across various sectors. The ultimate challenge is to create a leading centre for Palaeo Evidence for Policy at Royal Holloway University of London to: (1) build a palaeo-climate service feeding policy makers with evidence to assist decision-making; (2) support palaeoclimatologists in the UK and overseas to make impact cases studies; (3) train the next generation of early career researchers in policy skills. The fellowship will also explore art-based methods for impact. In particular, creative writing to promote climate science literacy for young children.

Anthropogenic disturbance and land-use change in the tropics is leading to irrevocable changes in biodiversity and substantial shifts in ecosystem biogeochemistry. Yet, we still have a poor understanding of how human-driven changes in biodiversity feed back to alter biogeochemical processes. This knowledge gap substantially restricts our ability to model and predict the response of tropical ecosystems to current and future environmental change. There are a number of critical challenges to our understanding of how changes in biodiversity may alter ecosystem processes in the tropics; namely: (i) how the high taxonomic diversity of the tropics is linked to ecosystem functioning, (ii) how changes in the interactions among trophic levels and taxonomic groups following disturbance impacts upon functional diversity and biogeochemistry, and (iii) how plot-level measurements can be used to scale to whole landscapes. We have formed a consortium to address these critical challenges to launch a large-scale, replicated, and fully integrated study that brings together a multi-disciplinary team with the skills and expertise to study the necessary taxonomic and trophic groups, different biogeochemical processes, and the complex interactions amongst them. To understand and quantify the effects of land-use change on the activity of focal biodiversity groups and how this impacts biogeochemistry, we will: (i) analyse pre-existing data on distributions of focal biodiversity groups; (ii) sample the landscape-scale treatments at the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems (SAFE) Project site (treatments include forest degradation, fragmentation, oil palm conversion) and key auxiliary sites (Maliau Basin - old growth on infertile soils, Lambir Hills - old growth on fertile soils, Sabah Biodiversity Experiment - rehabilitated forest, INFAPRO-FACE - rehabilitated forest); and (iii) implement new experiments that manipulate key components of biodiversity and pathways of belowground carbon flux. The manipulations will focus on trees and lianas, mycorrhizal fungi, termites and ants, because these organisms are the likely agents of change for biogeochemical cycling in human-modified tropical forests. We will use a combination of cutting-edge techniques to test how these target groups of organisms interact each other to affect biogeochemical cycling. We will additionally collate and analyse archived data on other taxa, including vertebrates of conservation concern. The key unifying concept is the recognition that so-called 'functional traits' play a key role in linking taxonomic diversity to ecosystem function. We will focus on identifying key functional traits associated with plants, and how they vary in abundance along the disturbance gradient at SAFE. In particular, we propose that leaf functional traits (e.g. physical and chemical recalcitrance, nitrogen content, etc.) play a pivotal role in determining key ecosystem processes and also strongly influence atmospheric composition. Critically, cutting-edge airborne remote sensing techniques suggest it is possible to map leaf functional traits, chemistry and physiology at landscape-scales, and so we will use these novel airborne methods to quantify landscape-scale patterns of forest degradation, canopy structure, biogeochemical cycling and tree distributions. Process-based mathematical models will then be linked to the remote sensing imagery and ground-based measurements of functional diversity and biogeochemical cycling to upscale our findings over disturbance gradients.