Outbreaks of climate sensitive diseases present a major growing threat to human health, but they are predictable and maybe even preventable. The mosquito transmitted disease dengue is one of the fastest growing global infectious diseases and now causes over 400 million annual cases globally. Dengue is becoming the primary acute infectious disease threat in countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia. Between 2017 and 2019, Vietnam averaged over 200,000 cases every year and in Malaysia dengue fever has the highest incidence rate among any other communicable disease (398 cases per 100,000). Dengue outbreaks are preventable with existing interventions, but only if they are used in the right places at the right times. The ability to forecast disease outbreaks months in advance can reduce the burden on health services. This is important in resource-constrained Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs) where they can make the difference between an effective and efficient proactive response compared to a costly and often unsuccessful reactive response. We aim to demonstrate the value of disease forecasting via a local level dengue forecasting system in Vietnam and Malaysia, which will pave the way for scale up of dengue forecasting and other digital health solutions for climate sensitive diseases. We have developed the necessary disease forecasting techniques as part of the Dengue forecasting MOdel Satellite-based System (D-MOSS) project. Although this system has been operational since July 2019 in Vietnam and July 2020 in Malaysia, more work is needed to bridge the implementation gap to ensure forecasts have direct actionable and measurable impacts on preventing outbreaks at a local level. Further research is required to establish if the forecasting techniques already in operation are capable of producing accurate forecasts at the required spatial and temporal resolutions, tailored to the practices applied by specific sectors of the health system. We will test this by co-developing new forecasts that provide advance predictions in Vietnam and Malaysia. Through a series of longitudinal workshops we will develop risk assessment protocols that link forecasts to outbreak prevention activities at different sectors of the Vietnamese and Malaysian health systems. These knowledge gaps will be addressed by a multidisciplinary team of dengue experts, modellers, public health experts, software engineers and early warning systems experts from multiple institutes in Vietnam, Malaysia and the UK. Training and co-design of the research is central to all aspects of our proposal and we intend to leverage the equitable partnerships established as part of the D-MOSS project to meet our aims. Cross-cutting activities will compare and contrast the operational context in these countries and enable collaboration between them with the goal of deriving generalisable principles and specific guidelines for expansion to other countries. This research will demonstrate clear health value against dengue and other Aedes mosquito-borne diseases (e.g. chikungunya, Zika) in Vietnam and Malaysia, and a plan for how the intervention will be scaled up to other LMICs currently struggling to address the growing threat of dengue and other climate-sensitive diseases. In the longer term, this project will provide evidence on the value of forecasting to health systems for a wide range of health conditions.

The research project studies the impact of transnational organised crime and drug-trafficking (TNOC) on poor urban communities in Port-of-Spain, Trinidad, which has seen crime and violence soar since the mid-1990s as the city became transhipment point in the illegal drugs trade. We address the impact of TNOC on vulnerable populations, culture and security by considering the 'transnational-to-community' impact of drug-trafficking. In particular we consider how TNOC contributes to a number of male residents becoming increasingly violent at a micro level as 92% of homicide victims are men: how do relatively benign 'corner kids' turn into violent gang members? In turn we ask, how can these communities work with young men to insulate themselves from the negative impact and violence generation of TNOC? This research uses masculinities as an interpretive lens and draws upon scholars across the disciplines of Peace Studies, Cultural Anthropology, and International Relations. The methodology is rooted in Trinidadian 'Spoken Word' traditions, and art and music, to grasp how male identity, culture, community violence and TNOC intersect. Before high levels of TNOC emerged, the region had relatively low levels of violent crime. However, this changed rapidly with the onset of cocaine trafficking in early 1990s across the Caribbean which dovetailed with the multiple clefts of colonial legacies, exclusion and poverty, worsened by the collapse of traditional agricultural exports, racial divisions and widespread institutional weaknesses. Violent death rates in cities in the region have grown to outstrip many warzones, whilst some of the highest rates of sexual and gender based violence (SGBV) in the world are found in the Caribbean. The answers to understanding violence must be sought at the interface between cocaine-driven TNOC and vulnerable communities, as poor residents have become disproportionately affected by violence. TNOC has weakened the rule of law, posing stiff challenges to already struggling institutions, whilst transforming local communities, hence the rather topical title of this research proposal 'Breaking Bad'. However, we still understand relatively little about the transformative processes between TNOC and community level violence. Furthermore, we understand little about how masculinities become violent in communities traversed by TNOC. It is at the intersection between TNOC, community, and masculinities, that the new violence of Port-of-Spain can be most productively understood. Certainly it is an area where we must strengthen policy and programming. Whilst there is no silver-bullet solution to violence in these cities, masculinities are clearly an important part of the solution and are almost completely overlooked. This research project strives to create pragmatic, evidence based recommendations to lead to concrete impact by promoting innovative, community-led and gender-based solutions for the populations that most suffer from violence, whilst serving to interrupt the negative impact that TNOC has on poor neighbourhoods.

"Every human society must justify its inequalities: unless reasons for them are found, the whole political and social edifice stands in danger of collapse" - Thomas Piketty How do citizens of different societies perceive the fairness of inequalities? Answering this question is key to understanding increasing social tensions, and informing the design of policies that address the current and widespread discontent with existing economic and political institutions. There are two reasons why citizens may perceive inequalities as unfair. First, actual inequalities may not square with their fairness preferences, e.g., people may dislike the extent of gender pay gaps, or they may think that the returns to long working hours are too low. Second, they may have biased beliefs about actual inequality, e.g., people may overestimate the size of gender pay gaps, or they may underestimate the earnings effects of working hours. These examples illustrate that an understanding of fairness perceptions requires in-depth knowledge of citizens' fairness preferences and their beliefs about inequality in different domains of the labor market. However, to date, there is no harmonized data collection that integrates these elements and enables us to measure perceived unfairness and understand its consequences for society on a global scale. As a consequence, our current knowledge is either based on strong assumptions about peoples' fairness preferences and beliefs about inequality, or confined to single-country studies that cannot take account of the diversity of perceptions across countries with different geographic, cultural, and economic characteristics. In my FLF, I will address this gap. I will lead a network of stakeholders including the general public, policymakers, and scientists to identify domains of labor market inequality that are at the core of fairness perceptions; collect corresponding data on preferences and beliefs about labor market inequality in 50 countries worldwide; and construct measures of perceived unfairness that allow us to assess the implications of perceived unfairness for important societal outcomes that are essential building blocks for well-functioning societies. In years 1-4, I will divide my FLF into three working packages (WPs): WP1 - Develop a measurement framework and associated survey module taking into account the views of key stakeholders such as the general public, policymakers, and academics from diverse cultural and economic backgrounds (Years 1-2). WP2 - Collect harmonized data on fairness preferences and inequality beliefs in 50 countries (incl. the four nations of the UK) representing a broad range of geographic, cultural, and economic characteristics (Years 2-3). WP3 - Analyze the anatomy of perceived unfairness and its implications for societal outcomes including support for democracy, trust in institutions, and support for public policies (Years 3-4). In years 5-7, I will build on the initial findings and use both field experiments and quasi-experimental variation from policy reforms to investigate whether preferences and beliefs regarding different domains of labor market inequality are malleable by policy intervention. Thereby, I will provide important insights for civil society organizations and policymakers on how to address perceived unfairness and discontent with current economic systems. This agenda will improve our understanding of one of the most widely debated social issues of our times: unfair inequality in labor markets. I will analyze this phenomenon on a global scale while integrating the perspectives of a diverse set of stakeholders. My FLF combines an ambitious and multidisciplinary research programme that will generate a series of high-profile journal articles with a personalized programme for my professional development. These elements make the FLF a unique opportunity to establish myself as a leading expert regarding inequality and fairness in Europe and beyond.

The ecosystem services approach emphasises the many ways nature sustains and enriches people's lives. Valuation of ecosystem services can contribute to ecosystem conservation and human wellbeing. For these efforts to result in poverty alleviation, however, scientists must tackle the relationship between ecosystem services and wellbeing with reference to environmental justice. Ecosystem services tend to benefit some stakeholders more than others. Decision making in ecosystem management is likely to involve some more than others. Can those winner and losers be identified and their responses anticipated? Can the involved social tradeoffs be mapped, just as ecological tradeoffs between competing environmental services, to support ecosystem conservation and poverty alleviation? Recognition of ecological and social tradeoffs is a crucial precondition for just ecosystem management, i.e. ecosystem management that distributes ecosystem services fairly and includes all stakeholders in decision making. The proposed research serves the overarching goal to promote just ecosystem management as a new and innovative concept. The project will contribute to the overarching goal by developing a novel conceptual framework to guide research and practice. Its specific objectives are to (1) incorporate attention to multiple stakeholders and socio-ecological tradeoffs into the ecosystem services approach, (2) analyse the justice dimensions of critical changes in ecosystem services in the management of water, health, forests, biodiversity and coastal ecosystems, and (3) illustrate key justice dimensions in the management of selected coastal and terrestrial ecosystems in China, India and Central Africa. The project is intended to influence future research conducted in multiple academic fields on the feedbacks between ecosystem services and human wellbeing. The conceptual framework will show researchers how to approach long-established topics in their respective fields from new, interdisciplinary perspectives and point out concrete opportunities for linking up with research conducted in other fields. Conservation biologists will recognise new ways to integrate social tradeoffs into their analyses by looking at the distribution of ecosystem services among stakeholders, and by attending to the participation of different stakeholders in decisions over ecosystems. Political economists will benefit from the system-based understanding of 'nature' and the attention to ecological tradeoffs. Ecological economists will gain important insights for the development of new valuation methods which respond to underlying social inequalities and capture ecological tradeoffs. In this way, the research will make a critical contribution to the development of new interdisciplinary understanding of the relationship between ecosystems and human wellbeing that acknowledges the significance of ecological, social and socio-ecological tradeoffs equally. Just ecosystem management will directly benefit poor and socially excluded people dependent upon ecosystem services living in developing countries. Equitable distribution will strengthen the contributions of ecosystem services to poverty alleviation, with particular benefits accruing to people dependent on these services. Inclusive decision making in ecosystem management will allow participation by stakeholders typically excluded due to differences in wealth, race, gender, etc. Just ecosystem management will facilitate stakeholders to recognise, deliberate and respond to ecological, social and socio-ecological tradeoffs together. The project will promote just ecosystem management by engaging UK and international policy-making organisations, policy-making organisations in China, India and Central Africa and organisations implementing conservation and development projects in the three sites of Yunnan, Orissa and the Albertine Rift.

Our Network entitled 'Digital Health for Migrant Mothers' establishes an innovative collaboration between the UN, African and UK-based academics, industry (African-based VR company 'Black Rhino') and midwives to explore how digital tools can be used to enhance maternal care for refugees within camp environments. The UN has noted that despite improving global trends, maternal and neonatal mortality rates remain disproportionately high for women living in humanitarian settings, such as refugee camps. A central component in this challenge is the lack of trained midwifes with Combating these pressing challenges facing women's maternal health care has been strategically identified as part of the SDGs (5 & 3). Our project builds upon previous GCRF-funded research ('Birthing at the Borders' PI Bagelman) and addresses these challenges in one of the worlds' largest and longest-standing refugee camps: Dadaab camps in Kenya which borders Somalia. The Dadaab camps currently host over 400,000 refuges (40% of reproductive age) where maternal morbidity and mortality is notably high (Gee et al, 2019). Our project proposes an innovative Network bringing together a diverse but coherent team to co-design a digital health response to the urgent challenges facing migrant mothers in an environment of protracted displacement. Our project is collaborative in nature, employing agile participatory modes of research rather than imposing models from above. Given the urgent need for midwives to have a more empowered role in the digital provision and education of maternal care our project will develop an engaged Network to explore the possibilities of 'training up' midwives, enhancing their digital literacy through the design of digital 'teaching toolkits' for midwifery education supported by UN. Despite significant international funding spent on reproductive health in Dadaab, maternal and neonatal death rates are disproportionately high as compared to other hardship areas in the region (Gee et al, 2019). Research demonstrates that this discrepancy is due to a systemic disconnect in maternal care within the camp: while most refugee women rely on midwives (as they perceived to provide emotional, culturally-sensitive support) there are only few trained midwives available (Bagelman et al, forthcoming. See CV). Despite the key role that midwives play in supporting refugees in pre to post-natal care, midwifery training remains under-resourced and designed on an ad-hoc basis. While significant resources are earmarked for promoting digital learning and training for biomedical practitioners, midwifery-led health education platforms remain under-supported (WHO, 2016). In particular, digital health tools remain inaccessible to most midwives. For instance, while Virtual Reality (VR) have been well-established within biomedical communities as a productive mechanism for learning and teaching, midwives have little access to such tools. This digital gap is problematic for two main reasons: 1) the absence of digital technology underprivileges women in their ability to provide care 2) and directly impinges upon refugee women in camps who rely - sometimes exclusively - on midwives in receiving care. In sum, our Network places primacy on African digital expertise, is gendered in its approach and centres those often marginalised in digital debates to promote an innovative, and agile response in emergency camp geographies. Reference: Gee, S., Vargas, J. and Foster, A.M., 2019. "exploring the role of sociocultural context and perceptions of care on maternal and newborn health among Somali refugees in UNHCR supported camps in Kenya". Conflict and health, 13(1), p.11.