ChAOS will quantify the effect of changing sea ice cover on organic matter quality, benthic biodiversity, biological transformations of carbon and nutrient pools, and resulting ecosystem function at the Arctic Ocean seafloor. We will achieve this by determining the amount, source, and bioavailability of organic matter (OM) and associated nutrients exported to the Arctic seafloor; its consumption, transformation, and cycling through the benthic food chain; and its eventual burial or recycling back into the water column. We will study these coupled biological and biogeochemical processes by combining (i) a detailed study of representative Arctic shelf sea habitats that intersect the ice edge, with (ii) broad-scale in situ validation studies and shipboard experiments, (iii) manipulative laboratory experiments that will identify causal relationships and mechanisms, (iv) analyses of highly spatially and temporally resolved data obtained by the Canadian, Norwegian and German Arctic programmes to establish generality, and (v) we will integrate new understanding of controls and effects on biodiversity, biogeochemical pathways and nutrient cycles into modelling approaches to explore how changes in Arctic sea ice alter ecosystems at regional scales. We will focus on parts of the Arctic Ocean where drastic changes in sea ice cover are the main environmental control, e.g., the Barents Sea. Common fieldwork campaigns will form the core of our research activity. Although our preferred focal region is a N-S transect along 30 degree East in the Barents Sea where ice expansion and retreat are well known and safely accessible, we will also use additional cruises to locations that share similar sediment and water conditions in Norway, retrieving key species for extended laboratory experiments that consider future environmental forcing. Importantly, the design of our campaign is not site specific, allowing our approach to be applied in other areas that share similar regional characteristics. This flexibility maximizes the scope for coordinated activities between all programme consortia (pelagic or benthic) should other areas of the Arctic shelf be preferable once all responses to the Announcement of Opportunity have been evaluated. In support of our field campaign, and informed by the analysis of field samples and data obtained by our international partners (in Norway, Canada, USA, Italy, Poland and Germany), we will conduct a range of well-constrained laboratory experiments, exposing incubated natural sediment to environmental conditions that are most likely to vary in response to the changing sea ice cover, and analysing the response of biology and biogeochemistry to these induced changes in present versus future environments (e.g., ocean acidification, warming). We will use existing complementary data sets provided by international project partners to achieve a wider spatial and temporal coverage of different parts of the Arctic Ocean. The unique combination of expertise (microbiologists, geochemists, ecologists, modellers) and facilities across eight leading UK research institutions will allow us to make new links between the quantity and quality of exported OM as a food source for benthic ecosystems, the response of the biodiversity and ecosystem functioning across the full spectrum of benthic organisms, and the effects on the partitioning of carbon and nutrients between recycled and buried pools. To link the benthic sub-system to the Arctic Ocean as a whole, we will establish close links with complementary projects studying biogeochemical processes in the water column, benthic environment (and their interactions) and across the land-ocean transition. This will provide the combined data sets and process understanding, as well as novel, numerically efficient upscaling tools, required to develop predictive models (e.g., MEDUSA) that allow for a quantitative inclusion seafloor into environmental predictions of the changing Arctic Ocean.

Tracking wild animals, such as seabirds, poses substantial logistical difficulties as they often cannot be observed directly, meaning remote tracking technology is integral to the study of natural behaviour. GPS loggers, which store animals' position at fixed time intervals, are one of the most commonly used remote tracking devices. However, they present a significant cost-to-output trade-off. Affordable GPS tags collect data archivally, and so the animal must be recaptured to retrieve the tag its data. They are also limited in memory capacity and battery life, limiting study durations to 2-3 weeks maximum, and their consequentially large size can have significant impacts on normal behaviour for many species. More expensive devices overcome these problems by remotely communicating with satellites to download data to a server, but can cost hundreds or thousands of pounds per tag, limiting the number of individuals that can be tracked at once. Reverse GPS technology overcomes many of these limitations. Under this system, small, radio frequency-emitting tags are attached to animals, which communicate with nearby receiver stations to estimate and download the location of the tagged animal. These tags are very lightweight, not limited by memory, and have very low power consumption, and so can be used to tag many individuals at once, for long durations, and at a low cost. The ATLAS Wildlife Tracking System is a revolutionary reverse GPS system that has been used on a variety of study systems across the globe to remotely track many individuals simultaneously. We propose to install the first ATLAS system in the Arctic, and conduct a proof-of-concept test of its operationality. During this project, we will establish an ATLAS network of 6 base stations, giving coverage of a 26km2 area, encapsulating a kittiwake study colony and a large fraction of the Bijleveld fjord, at the base of which lies the Nordenskjöld Glacier. This glacier is an important foraging site, but is vulnerable to many of the effects of climate change in the Arctic, including sea surface temperature rises and Atlantification (whereby warmer and saltier water extends into the Arctic ocean, altering prey availability). We will fit 200 kittiwakes with tags, a substantial fraction of the colony, to examine to what extent environmental conditions reduce or exacerbate competition in the area, and how individuals respond. Once optimised, this system could be rolled out to multiple other species, giving a wholistic overview of movement and interactions in this ecosystem.

Mass extinctions in the geological record have shaped the course of evolution and life on Earth, and without them, humans would not exist. Understanding what causes mass extinctions is therefore one of the most fascinating topics for scientific research. We are still a long way from solving these ancient murder mysteries. By studying the cause and consequence of major changes in deep time, we can gain a unique perspective on current-day climate change and the issues affecting life on Earth. Two of the biggest extinctions ever to affect the Earth occurred within 10 million-years of each other, in the Middle Permian and at the Permian-Triassic (PT) boundary. The latter event killed up to 95% of marine species and is the greatest crisis of life in the geological record. Both extinctions are well-known from Permian equatorial regions, where their probable causes include volcanism, sea-level change, and oceanic oxygen depletion. However, little is known of the record of environmental or faunal change in mid-high latitudes, and it is not clear whether the causes of low-latitude losses were operating elsewhere. This project will test this by examining superb Permian sequences from the Arctic island of Spitsbergen, where marine rocks are exposed in cliffs that contain a record of faunal and environmental change. During the study interval, Spitsbergen was located at 40-60 degrees north, far removed from equatorial settings, in the Boreal seas. Study in the region has been hampered by an inability to accurately date the rocks. Thus, the relative age of events in the Boreal realm is unclear. The rocks are known to contain abundant fossils but their response to the two extinction events is unknown. Volcanism is thought to have caused the Middle Permian extinction in South China, but it is not clear if its effects reached beyond that continent. Warming and lack of oxygen in the oceans are factors in the PT event, but the cool waters of the Boreal seas ought to have been less susceptible (because oxygen is more readily dissolved at lower temperatures). Little is known of the recovery of the Boreal ecosystem between the two extinctions: did life recovery fully before being devastated at the PT boundary, or was that crisis so severe because the ecosystem was already stressed by the earlier event? An improved understanding of faunal loss and recovery in the region will help us to evaluate the competing extinction mechanisms. The correlation of the Boreal record with other parts of the world is integral to the success of the project, and will be achieved using chemostratigraphy. Thus, we will produce a carbon isotope curve - which has recently been established for other regions but not yet for Spitsbergen. The project will therefore: a) develop a Permian age model, allowing Spitsbergen sections to be correlated globally; and b) examine the record of environmental and faunal change within that time framework. To achieve the second objective, we will employ a variety of techniques: field- and microscope examination of fossils to pinpoint the timing of extinction and recovery; sequence stratigraphy (changes in rock type that reflect changing sea-levels); and analysis of pyrite in the rocks (to assess changes in oceanic oxygen levels). All of these methods have been used successfully before, but have never been applied to studies of the Boreal realm. Ultimately this project aims to identify two mass extinction events in the Boreal realm, and to ascertain their timing and causes. This will test whether the drivers of equatorial extinctions during the Permian can truly be considered global. The results will be publicised to a scientific audience through the academic press, and to a wider audience via the project website, school outreach activities, and the mass media.

The Arctic Ocean is experiencing an environmental state-change with expanding human activities ranging from commercial shipping and energy development to ship-based tourism. Accordingly, with involvement of indigenous peoples, Arctic and non-Arctic states have begun to develop national and international management regimes to address emerging issues, impacts and resources in the Arctic Ocean. In every case, there will be challenges to implement agreements in the face of political and financial constraints. "Pan-Arctic Options - Holistic Integration for Arctic Coastal- Marine Sustainability" is designed in an international, interdisciplinary and inclusive manner, involving cost-effective collaboration with currentlyfunded projects to contribute to informed decision-making by policy makers from government and industry. The core team includes natural and social scientists from Canada, China, France, Norway, Russia and the United States who will integrate document collections, geospatial data and stakeholder perspectives. This integrated decision-support tool will involve users in the co-design and co-production of options for both policy and built elements that are needed together for sustainable infrastructure development in the Arctic Ocean. A unique observational contribution from Pan- Arctic Options will be the analysis of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data of ship traffic across the Arctic Ocean collected from polar-orbiting satellites from 2009 forward. Results will be disseminated via journals (e.g., Science, Nature) and books as well as less-conventional methods involving facilitated dialogues in annual venues (e.g., Arctic Frontiers, Arctic Circle) and in the 2016 Arctic Expedition Summit involving the National Geographic Society and Google Ocean program. Management of this holistic project will be in the hands of a Steering Committee and an international Advisory Board involving global thought leaders and organizations (e.g., Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme), contributing to Arctic Ocean sustainability on a pan-Arctic scale.

Arctic PRIZE will address the core objective of the Changing Arctic Ocean Program by seeking to understand and predict how change in sea ice and ocean properties will affect the large-scale ecosystem structure of the Arctic Ocean. We will investigate the seasonally and spatially varying relationship between sea ice, water column structure, light, nutrients and productivity and the roles they play in structuring energy transfer to pelagic zooplankton and benthic megafauna. We focus on the seasonal ice zone (SIZ) of the Barents Sea - a highly productive region that is undergoing considerable change in its sea ice distribution - and target the critically important but under-sampled seasonal transition from winter into the post-bloom summer period. Of critical importance is the need to develop the predictive tools necessary to assess how the Arctic ecosystems will respond to a reducing sea ice cover. This will be achieved through a combined experimental/modelling programme. The project is embedded within international Arctic networks based in Norway and Canada and coordinated with ongoing US projects in the Pacific Arctic. Through these international research networks our proposal will have a legacy of cooperation far beyond the lifetime of the funding. The project comprises five integrated work packages. WP1 Physical Parameters: We will measure properties of the water column (temperature, salinity, turbulent fluxes, light, fluorometry) in both open water and under sea ice by deploying animal-borne tags on seals which preferentially inhabit the marginal ice zone (MIZ). We will use ocean gliders to patrol the water around the MIZ and track it as the ice retreats northwards in summer. Measurements of underwater light fields will support development of improved regional remote sensing algorithms to extend the spatial and temporal context of the proposal beyond the immediate deployment period. WP2 Nutrient Dynamics: We will undertake an extensive program of measuring inorganic and organic nutrients, their concentrations, isotopic signatures and vertical fluxes to understand the role of vertical mixing and advection (WP1) in regulating nutrient supply to PP in the surface ocean. WP3 Phytoplankton Production: We will investigate nutrient supply (WP2) and light availability (WP1) linked to sea ice affect the magnitude, timing, and composition of phytoplankton production, and the role of seasonal physiological plasticity. Through new numerical parameterisations - cross-tuned and validated using a rich array of observations - we will develop predictive skill related to biological production and its fate; resolve longstanding questions about the competing effects of increased light and wind mixing associated with sea ice loss; and therefore contribute to the international effort to project the functioning of Pan-Arctic ecosystems. WP4 Zooplankton: Zooplankton undergo vertical migrations to graze on PP at the surface. We will use acoustic instruments on moorings and AUVs, with nets and video profiles to measure the composition and behaviours of pelagic organisms in relation in light and mixing (WP1) and phytoplankton production (WP3) over the seasonal cycle of sea ice cover. The behaviours identified will be used to improve models that capture the life-history and behavioural traits of Arctic zooplankton. These models can then be used to investigate how feeding strategies of key Arctic zooplankton species may be modified during an era of reducing sea ice cover. WP5 Benthic Community: We will use an AUV equipped with camera system to acquire imagery of the large seabed-dwelling organisms to investigate how changes in sea ice duration (WP1), timing of PP (WP3) and bentho-pelagic coupling (WP4) can modify the spatial variation in benthic community composition. We will also conduct time series-studies in an Arctic fjord using a photolander system to record the seasonally varying community response to pulses of organic matter.