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The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

Authors: H. Goelzer; H. Goelzer; H. Goelzer; S. Nowicki; A. Payne; E. Larour; H. Seroussi; +46 Authors

The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

Abstract

Abstract. The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global meansea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arcticcontinues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increasedsurface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat ofmarine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble ofGreenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset ofthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level risecontributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of theIce Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate thesea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climateforcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the twogreenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The resultsindicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in bothscenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largestmass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed bysurface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today.Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced controlexperiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. massloss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcingremained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertaintyexplains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty andocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm,respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, thelargest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding andimplementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheetwith the ocean.

info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Countries
Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, France, Belgium, France, United Kingdom, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Subjects by Vocabulary

Microsoft Academic Graph classification: Greenland ice sheet Meltwater Coupled model intercomparison project geography geography.geographical_feature_category Glacier Future sea level Ice-sheet model Climatology Environmental science Climate model Ice sheet Geology

Library of Congress Subject Headings: lcsh:Environmental sciences lcsh:GE1-350 lcsh:QE1-996.5 lcsh:Geology

Nippon Decimal Classification: 450

Keywords

G1, SDG 13 - Climate Action, GE1-350, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Earth-Surface Processes, Water Science and Technology, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, QE1-996.5, GE, G Geography (General), DAS, Geology, Glaciologie, Environmental sciences, Sciences exactes et naturelles, GE Environmental Sciences

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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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