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ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Authors: H. Seroussi; S. Nowicki; A. J. Payne; H. Goelzer; H. Goelzer; W. H. Lipscomb; A. Abe-Ouchi; +47 Authors

ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Abstract

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution inresponse to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute tofuture sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future massbalance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physicalprocesses, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presentsresults from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolutionof the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet ModelIntercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from theCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climatemodel results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in responseto increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent(SLE) under Representative ConcentrationPathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment withconstant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution underclimate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of theWest Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighingthe increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelfcollapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface ofice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without iceshelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, thecalibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavitiesand the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario basedon two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared tosimulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and displaylimited mass gain in East Antarctica.

info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Countries
France, Belgium, Germany, France, Netherlands, Germany, Belgium
Subjects by Vocabulary

Microsoft Academic Graph classification: Ice stream Antarctic ice sheet Ice shelf geography Coupled model intercomparison project geography.geographical_feature_category Future sea level Ice-sheet model Climatology Environmental science Climate model Ice sheet

Library of Congress Subject Headings: lcsh:Environmental sciences lcsh:GE1-350 lcsh:QE1-996.5 lcsh:Geology

Nippon Decimal Classification: 450

Keywords

F900, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Earth-Surface Processes, Water Science and Technology, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Glaciologie, Sciences exactes et naturelles

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    181
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
downloads
OpenAIRE UsageCountsDownloads provided by UsageCounts
181
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Funded byView all
NWO| Perturbations of System Earth: Reading the Past to Project the Future - A proposal to create the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (ESSC)
Project
  • Funder: Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) (NWO)
  • Project Code: 024.002.001
,
ANR| TROIS-AS
Project
TROIS-AS
Towards a Regional Ocean/ Ice Sheet / Atmosphere modeling System
  • Funder: French National Research Agency (ANR) (ANR)
  • Project Code: ANR-15-CE01-0005
iis
,
NSF| The Management and Operation of the National Center for Atmoshperic Research (NCAR)
Project
  • Funder: National Science Foundation (NSF)
  • Project Code: 1852977
  • Funding stream: Directorate for Geosciences | Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
iis
,
EC| TiPACCs
Project
TiPACCs
Tipping Points in Antarctic Climate Components
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 820575
  • Funding stream: H2020 | RIA
Validated by funder | iis
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