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Future Socio-political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: An Operationalized Framework for Marine Fisheries Projections

Authors: Katell G. Hamon; Cornelia M. Kreiss; John K. Pinnegar; John K. Pinnegar; Heleen Bartelings; Jurgen Batsleer; Ignacio A. Catalán; +7 Authors

Future Socio-political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: An Operationalized Framework for Marine Fisheries Projections

Abstract

Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and widespread direct consequences for the European marine ecosystems and subsequently for the European fishery sector. Additionally, many socio-economic and political factors linked to climate change scenarios will impact the future development of fishing industries. Robust projection modeling of bioeconomic consequences of climate change on the European fishing sector must identify all these factors and their potential future interaction. In this study, four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources) were operationalized and used in model projections of marine wild capture fisheries. Four CERES scenarios (“World Markets,” “National Enterprise,” “Global Sustainability” and “Local Stewardship”) were based on the IPCC framework of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). For each of these scenarios, a set of quantitative outputs was generated to allow projections of bio-economic impacts to mid-century (2050) on wild-capture fisheries operating in different European regions. Specifically, projections accounted for future changes in fisheries management targets, access regulations, international agreements, fish and fuel prices, technological developments and marine spatial planning. This study thoroughly describes the elements of these four fisheries scenarios and demonstrates an example of the “regionalization” of these scenarios by summarizing how they were applied to the North Sea flatfish fishery. Bioeconomic projections highlight the importance of future developments in fuel and fish price development to the viability of that and other fisheries. Adapting these scenarios for use in other models and regions outside the 10 European fisheries examined in CERES would be highly beneficial by allowing direct comparison of the bioeconomic risks and opportunities posed by climate change.

Peer reviewed

Countries
Spain, Netherlands, United Kingdom
Subjects by Vocabulary

Library of Congress Subject Headings: lcsh:QH1-199.5 lcsh:General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution lcsh:Science lcsh:Q

Microsoft Academic Graph classification: Fishing Climate change Marine ecosystem Operationalization business.industry Environmental resource management Marine spatial planning Geography Sustainability Fisheries management Stewardship business

Keywords

SIMFISH, economic, Performance and Impact Agrosectors, Science, PESTEL, Economic, Ocean Engineering, QH1-199.5, Aquatic Science, Oceanography, socio-political, Performance en Impact Agrosectoren, Aquaculture and Fisheries, Scenarios, fishery, Climate change, Socio-political, International Policy, Internationaal Beleid, Water Science and Technology, Global and Planetary Change, SSP, Aquacultuur en Visserij, Business Manager projecten Midden-Noord, Q, scenarios, General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution, climate change, Fishery, WIAS, Business Manager projects Mid-North

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  • citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    11
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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download
citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
downloads
OpenAIRE UsageCountsDownloads provided by UsageCounts
11
Top 10%
Average
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21
29
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