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  • SDSN - Greece
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: H. Goelzer; H. Goelzer; H. Goelzer; S. Nowicki; +49 Authors

    Abstract. The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global meansea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arcticcontinues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increasedsurface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat ofmarine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble ofGreenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset ofthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level risecontributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of theIce Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate thesea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climateforcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the twogreenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The resultsindicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in bothscenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largestmass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed bysurface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today.Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced controlexperiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. massloss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcingremained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertaintyexplains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty andocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm,respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, thelargest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding andimplementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheetwith the ocean. info:eu-repo/semantics/published

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    Article . 2020
    License: CC BY
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    The Cryosphere (TC)
    Other literature type . Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
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    St Andrews Research Repository
    Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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    The Cryosphere
    Article . 2020
    Data sources: NARCIS
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    DI-fusion
    Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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    The Cryosphere (TC)
    Article . 2020
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    https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-201...
    Preprint . 2020
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    The Cryosphere; The Cryosphere (TC)
    Article . Preprint . 2020
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    Hal-Diderot
    Article . 2020
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    https://doi.org/10.5194/egusph...
    Other literature type . 2020
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      Article . 2020
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      The Cryosphere (TC)
      Other literature type . Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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      St Andrews Research Repository
      Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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      The Cryosphere
      Article . 2020
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      DI-fusion
      Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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      The Cryosphere (TC)
      Article . 2020
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      https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-201...
      Preprint . 2020
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      The Cryosphere; The Cryosphere (TC)
      Article . Preprint . 2020
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      Hal-Diderot
      Article . 2020
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      https://doi.org/10.5194/egusph...
      Other literature type . 2020
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    Authors: Frantzeskaki, Niki; McPhearson, Timon; Collier, Marcus J.; Kendal, Dave; +11 Authors

    Nature-based solutions offer an exciting prospect for resilience building and advancing urban planning to address complex urban challenges simultaneously. In this article, we formulated through a coproduction process in workshops held during the first IPCC Cities and Climate Science Conference in Edmonton, Canada, in March 2018, a series of synthesis statements on the role, potential, and research gaps of nature-based solutions for climate adaptation and mitigation. We address interlocking questions about the evidence and knowledge needed for integrating nature-based solutions into urban agendas. We elaborate on the ways to advance the planning and knowledge agenda for nature-based solutions by focusing on knowledge coproduction, indicators and big data, and novel financing models. With this article, we intend to open a wider discussion on how cities can effectively mainstream nature-based solutions to mitigate and adapt to the negative effects of climate change and the future role of urban science in coproducing nature-based solutions. Also available at: Frantzeskaki, MacPhearson & Collier et al 2019. If you have any difficulty accessing this document, or you would like to know more about the Connecting Nature project, please email marcus.collier@tcd.ie.

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    Durham Research Online
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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    BioScience
    Other literature type . Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
    License: OUP Standard Publication Reuse
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    ZENODO
    Article . 2019
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    BioScience
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    NARCIS
    Article . 2019
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      Other literature type . Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: J. A. Franke; J. A. Franke; C. Müller; J. Elliott; +33 Authors

    Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

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    Authors: Bosak; T.; Lahr; D.J.G.; +10 Authors

    Foraminifera are an ecologically important group of modern heterotrophic amoeboid eukaryotes whose naked and testate ancestors are thought to have evolved ∼1 Ga ago. However, the single-chambered agglutinated tests of these protists appear in the fossil record only after ca. 580 Ma, coinciding with the appearance of macroscopic and mineralized animals. Here we report the discovery of small, slender tubular microfossils in the Sturtian (ca. 716–635 Ma) cap carbonate of the Rasthof Formation in Namibia. The tubes are 200–1300 μm long and 20–70 μm wide, and preserve apertures and variably wide lumens, folds, constrictions, and ridges. Their sometimes flexible walls are composed of carbonaceous material and detrital minerals. This combination of morphologic and compositional characters is also present in some species of modern single-chambered agglutinated tubular foraminiferans, and is not found in other agglutinated eukaryotes. The preservation of possible early Foraminifera in the carbonate rocks deposited in the immediate aftermath of Sturtian low-latitude glaciation indicates that various morphologically modern protists thrived in microbially dominated ecosystems, and contributed to the cycling of carbon in Neoproterozoic oceans much before the rise of complex animals.

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    Geology
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    Geology
    Other literature type . Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
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      Geology
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    Authors: Diana E. Bowler; Anne D. Bjorkman; Maria Dornelas; Isla H. Myers-Smith; +17 Authors

    AbstractClimate change and other anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity change are unequally distributed across the world. The geographic patterns of different drivers, and the spatial overlap among these drivers, have important implications for the direction and pace of biodiversity change, yet are not well documented. Moreover, it is unknown if the geographic patterns of drivers differ between the terrestrial and marine realm, as expected due to marked differences in how humans interact with the land and ocean.We compiled global gridded datasets on climate change, land-use, resource exploitation, pollution, species invasions, and human population density. We used multivariate statistics to examine the spatial relationships among the datasets and to characterize the typical combinations of drivers experienced by different parts of the world.We found stronger positive correlations among drivers in the terrestrial than in the marine realm, leading to areas of high intensities of multiple drivers on land. Climate change tended to be negatively correlated with other drivers in the terrestrial realm (e.g., in the tundra and boreal forest with high climate change but low human use and pollution) whereas the opposite was true in the marine realm (e.g., in the Indo-Pacific with high climate change and high fishing).We show that different regions of the world can be defined by anthropogenic threat complexes (ATCs), distinguished by different sets of drivers with varying intensities. The ATCs can be used to test hypothesis about the pattern of biodiversity change, especially the joint effects of multiple drivers. More generally, our global analysis highlights the broad conservation priorities needed to mitigate the effects of anthropogenic change on biodiversity responses, with different priorities emerging on land and in the ocean, and in different parts of the world.

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    bioRxiv
    Preprint . 2018
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      Preprint . 2018
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    Authors: Gytis Dudas; Luiz Max Carvalho; Trevor Bedford; Andrew J. Tatem; +92 Authors

    The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics. ispartof: Nature vol:544 issue:7650 pages:309- ispartof: location:England status: published

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    e-Prints Soton
    Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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    Europe PubMed Central
    Other literature type . 2017
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    Lirias
    Article . 2017
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    Nature
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    Apollo
    Other literature type . 2017
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    Nature
    Other literature type . Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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    Nature
    Article . 2017
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    Article . 2018
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      e-Prints Soton
      Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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      Other literature type . 2017
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      Apollo
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      Nature
      Other literature type . Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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      Nature
      Article . 2017
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      Apollo
      Article . 2018
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    Authors: J. Kaiser; Glenn M. Wolfe; Birger Bohn; Sebastian Broch; +18 Authors

    Ozone concentrations in the Po Valley of northern Italy often exceed international regulations. As both a source of radicals and an intermediate in the oxidation of most volatile organic compounds (VOCs), formaldehyde (HCHO) is a useful tracer for the oxidative processing of hydrocarbons that leads to ozone production. We investigate the sources of HCHO in the Po Valley using vertical profile measurements acquired from the airship Zeppelin NT over an agricultural region during the PEGASOS 2012 campaign. Using a 1-D model, the total VOC oxidation rate is examined and discussed in the context of formaldehyde and ozone production in the early morning. While model and measurement discrepancies in OH reactivity are small (on average 3.4 ± 13%), HCHO concentrations are underestimated by as much as 1.5 ppb (45%) in the convective mixed layer. A similar underestimate in HCHO was seen in the 2002–2003 FORMAT Po Valley measurements, though the additional source of HCHO was not identified. Oxidation of unmeasured VOC precursors cannot explain the missing HCHO source, as measured OH reactivity is explained by measured VOCs and their calculated oxidation products. We conclude that local direct emissions from agricultural land are the most likely source of missing HCHO. Model calculations demonstrate that radicals from degradation of this non-photochemical HCHO source increase model ozone production rates by as much as 0.6 ppb h−1 (12%) before noon. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15 (3) ISSN:1680-7375 ISSN:1680-7367

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    Other literature type . Article . 2015
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    Research Collection
    Article . 2015
    License: CC BY
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    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)
    Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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    ETH Zürich Research Collection
    Article . 2015
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      Other literature type . Article . 2015
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      Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)
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      ETH Zürich Research Collection
      Article . 2015
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    Authors: Donato Giovannelli; Giuseppe d’Errico; Federica Fiorentino; Daniele Fattorini; +7 Authors

    Pockmarks are crater-like depression on the seafloor associated with hydrocarbon ascent through muddy sediments in continental shelves around the world. In this study, we examine the diversity and distribution of benthic microbial communities at shallow-water pockmarks adjacent to the Middle Adriatic Ridge. We integrate microbial diversity data with characterization of local hydrocarbons concentrations and sediment geochemistry. Our results suggest these pockmarks are enriched in sedimentary hydrocarbons, and host a microbial community dominated by Bacteria, even in deeper sediment layers. Pockmark sediments showed higher prokaryotic abundance and biomass than surrounding sediments, potentially due to the increased availability of organic matter and higher concentrations of hydrocarbons linked to pockmark activity. Prokaryotic diversity analyses showed that the microbial communities of these shallow- water pockmarks are unique, and comprised phylotypes associated with the cycling of sulfur and nitrate compounds, as well as numerous know hydrocarbon degraders. Altogether, this study suggests that shallow-water pockmark habitats enhance the diversity of the benthic prokaryotic biosphere by providing specialized environmental niches.

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    Europe PubMed Central
    Article . 2016
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    Frontiers in Microbiology
    Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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    Frontiers in Microbiology
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      Europe PubMed Central
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      Frontiers in Microbiology
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    Authors: Sharma, Virender K.; Triantis, Theodoros M.; Antoniou, Maria G.; He, Xuexiang; +8 Authors

    Abstract Cyanobacteria blooms pose an environmental hazard because of the release of water soluble toxic compounds, called cyanotoxins. Microcystins (MCs), hepatotoxic cyclic peptide toxins, are the most widespread cyanotoxins with microcystin-LR (MC-LR) the most common and toxic variant. Health effects of MCs have resulted in the need of using efficient treatment methods for the removal of this class of toxins in water supplies. While physical treatment methods can remove MCs at full or some extent from contaminated water, their function is primary separation of the whole toxins as intact molecules and further processing is required. On the other hand, chemical oxidation processes are a promising alternative treatment option due to the potential of complete destruction of the MCs, transformation to less toxic by-products, and even complete mineralization. MCs reactivity towards different conventional oxidants is strongly affected by water quality parameters like pH, DOC and oxidant dose. Although there is a general trend for MCs oxidation (ozone > permanganate > chlorine >>> chlorine-based oxidants), the selection of the appropriate oxidant for toxin elimination during water treatment should be assessed for each particular source of water. Although advanced oxidation processes are generally more effective on MCs degradation than conventional oxidation processes, scale-up studies are needed before these methods are considered as economically-feasible and practical sustainable alternatives in water treatment facilities. In this review, recent literature concerning treatment of MCs in water by conventional and advanced oxidation processes are reviewed and discussed in terms of the degree of degradation, reaction kinetics, identity and toxicity of oxidation by-products and possible degradation pathways.

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    Separation and Purification Technology
    Other literature type . Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Elsevier TDM
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      Separation and Purification Technology
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    Authors: Graham Mann; Kenneth S. Carslaw; Carly Reddington; Kirsty J. Pringle; +48 Authors

    Abstract. Many of the next generation of global climate models will include aerosol schemes which explicitly simulate the microphysical processes that determine the particle size distribution. These models enable aerosol optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations to be determined by fundamental aerosol processes, which should lead to a more physically based simulation of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. This study examines the global variation in particle size distribution simulated by twelve global aerosol microphysics models to quantify model diversity and to identify any common biases against observations. Evaluation against size distribution measurements from a new European network of aerosol supersites shows that the mean model agrees quite well with the observations at many sites on the annual mean, but there are some seasonal biases common to many sites. In particular, at many of these European sites, the accumulation mode number concentration is biased low during winter and Aitken mode concentrations tend to be overestimated in winter and underestimated in summer. At high northern latitudes, the models strongly underpredict Aitken and accumulation particle concentrations compared to the measurements, consistent with previous studies that have highlighted the poor performance of global aerosol models in the Arctic. In the marine boundary layer, the models capture the observed meridional variation in the size distribution, which is dominated by the Aitken mode at high latitudes, with an increasing concentration of accumulation particles with decreasing latitude. Considering vertical profiles, the models reproduce the observed peak in total particle concentrations in the upper troposphere due to new particle formation, although modelled peak concentrations tend to be biased high over Europe. Overall, the multi-model-mean dataset simulates the global variation of the particle size distribution with a good degree of skill, suggesting that most of the individual global aerosol microphysics models are performing well, although the large model diversity indicates that some models are in poor agreement with the observations. Further work is required to better constrain size-resolved primary and secondary particle number sources, and an improved understanding of nucleation and growth (e.g. the role of nitrate and secondary organics) will improve the fidelity of simulated particle size distributions.

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    https://www.atmos-chem-phys.ne...
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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2014
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    http://www.atmos-chem-phys-dis...
    Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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