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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Eilis Hannon; Emma Dempster; Georgina Mansell; Joe Burrage; +42 Authors

    We performed a systematic analysis of blood DNA methylation profiles from 4483 participants from seven independent cohorts identifying differentially methylated positions (DMPs) associated with psychosis, schizophrenia, and treatment-resistant schizophrenia. Psychosis cases were characterized by significant differences in measures of blood cell proportions and elevated smoking exposure derived from the DNA methylation data, with the largest differences seen in treatment-resistant schizophrenia patients. We implemented a stringent pipeline to meta-analyze epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) results across datasets, identifying 95 DMPs associated with psychosis and 1048 DMPs associated with schizophrenia, with evidence of colocalization to regions nominated by genetic association studies of disease. Many schizophrenia-associated DNA methylation differences were only present in patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia, potentially reflecting exposure to the atypical antipsychotic clozapine. Our results highlight how DNA methylation data can be leveraged to identify physiological (e.g., differential cell counts) and environmental (e.g., smoking) factors associated with psychosis and molecular biomarkers of treatment-resistant schizophrenia.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ CORE (RIOXX-UK Aggre...arrow_drop_down
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    Article . 2021
    License: CC BY
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    Europe PubMed Central
    Article . 2021
    Data sources: PubMed Central
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    Article . 2021
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    eLife
    Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ CORE (RIOXX-UK Aggre...arrow_drop_down
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      Article . 2021
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Europe PubMed Central
      Article . 2021
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      eLife
      Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Lin Ma; Anne-Laure Fauchille; M. Chandler; Patrick J. Dowey; +3 Authors

    Abstract The feasibility and advantages of synchrotron imaging have been demonstrated to effectively characterise fracture initiation and propagation in shales during indentation tests. These include 1) fast (minute-scale) and high-resolution (μm-scale) imaging of fracture initiation, 2) concurrent spatial and temporal information (4D) about fracture development, 3) quantification and modelling of shale deformation prior to fracture. Imaging experiments were performed on four shale samples with different laminations and compositions in different orientations, representative of three key variables in shale microstructure. Fracture initiation and propagation were successfully captured in 3D over time, and strain maps were generated using digital volume correlation (DVC). Subsequently, post-experimental fracture geometries were characterised at nano-scale using complementary SEM imaging. Characterisation results highlight the influence of microstructural and anisotropy variations on the mechanical properties of shales. The fractures tend to kink at the interface of two different textures at both macroscale and microscale due to deformation incompatibility. The average composition appears to provide the major control on hardness and fracture initiation load; while the material texture and the orientation of the indentation to bedding combine to control the fracture propagation direction and geometry. This improved understanding of fracture development in shales is potentially significant in the clean energy applications.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Spiral - Imperial Co...arrow_drop_down
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Spiral - Imperial Co...arrow_drop_down
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      Energy
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Marta Coll; Lynne J. Shannon; Kristin M. Kleisner; M. J. Juan-Jorda; +34 Authors

    IndiSeas (>Indicators for the Seas>) is a collaborative international working group that was established in 2005 to evaluate the status of exploited marine ecosystems using a suite of indicators in a comparative framework. An initial shortlist of seven ecological indicators was selected to quantify the effects of fishing on the broader ecosystem using several criteria (i.e., ecological meaning, sensitivity to fishing, data availability, management objectives and public awareness). The suite comprised: (i) the inverse coefficient of variation of total biomass of surveyed species, (ii) mean fish length in the surveyed community, (iii) mean maximum life span of surveyed fish species, (iv) proportion of predatory fish in the surveyed community, (v) proportion of under and moderately exploited stocks, (vi) total biomass of surveyed species, and (vii) mean trophic level of the landed catch. In line with the Nagoya Strategic Plan of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2011-2020), we extended this suite to emphasize the broader biodiversity and conservation risks in exploited marine ecosystems. We selected a subset of indicators from a list of empirically based candidate biodiversity indicators initially established based on ecological significance to complement the original IndiSeas indicators. The additional selected indicators were: (viii) mean intrinsic vulnerability index of the fish landed catch, (ix) proportion of non-declining exploited species in the surveyed community, (x) catch-based marine trophic index, and (xi) mean trophic level of the surveyed community. Despite the lack of data in some ecosystems, we also selected (xii) mean trophic level of the modelled community, and (xiii) proportion of discards in the fishery as extra indicators. These additional indicators were examined, along with the initial set of IndiSeas ecological indicators, to evaluate whether adding new biodiversity indicators provided useful additional information to refine our understanding of the status evaluation of 29 exploited marine ecosystems. We used state and trend analyses, and we performed correlation, redundancy and multivariate tests. Existing developments in ecosystem-based fisheries management have largely focused on exploited species. Our study, using mostly fisheries independent survey-based indicators, highlights that biodiversity and conservation-based indicators are complementary to ecological indicators of fishing pressure. Thus, they should be used to provide additional information to evaluate the overall impact of fishing on exploited marine ecosystems. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved We thank the Euroceans IndiSeas Working Group funded by the European Network of Excellence EUR-OCEANS (FP6, Contract N° 511106), the European collaborative project MEECE – Marine Ecosystem Evolution in a Changing Environment (FP7, Contract N° 212085) and IRD (Institute of Research for Development) and IOC/UNESCO. [...] MC was partially funded by the European Commission through the Marie Curie Career Integration Grant Fellowships – PCIG10-GA-2011-303534 – to the BIOWEB project and by the Spanish National Program Ramon y Cajal. LJS was supported through the South African Research Chair Initiative, funded through the South African Department of Science and Technology (DST) and administered by the South African National Research Foundation (NRF). LJS and YS were also funded by the European collaborative project MEECE – Marine Ecosystem Evolution in a Changing Environment – (FP7, Contract N° 212085). KMK was supported by the Northeast Fisheries Science Center and the Nature Conservancy through a grant from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. MJJJ was supported by an EU Marie Curie International Outgoing Fellowship – PIOF-GA-2013-628116. MFB was supported by the Portuguese Oceanic and Atmospheric Institute and the trawl survey data collected under Biological Sampling (PNAB) Program. LJG would like to thank the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission for support. HO was financed by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (Grant SF0180005s10). JJH was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council and Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs [Grant Number NE/L003279/1, Marine Ecosystems Research Programme]. GIvdM was supported by the Institute of Marine Research, Norway. KT was partially funded by the project PERSEUS (Policy-oriented marine Environmental Research in the Southern EUropean Seas; FP7 Contract N° 287600). MAT was funded by the Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO) through a Predoctoral FPI fellowship. KNM was supported by a National Research Council fellowship at the Northwest Fishery Science Center. YJS and MTT were partially supported by the French project EMIBIOS (FRB, Contract No. APP-SCEN-2010-II). Chatham Rise trawl survey data were provided by the Ministry for Primary Industries. CL acknowledges DEVOTES – Development of innovative tools for understanding marine biodiversity and assessing good Environmental Status – EC project (FP7 Grant Agreement 308392) Coll, Marta ... et al.-- 16 pages, 6 figures, 6 tables Peer Reviewed

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    Other literature type . 2016
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    Other literature type . 2016
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    Ecological Indicators
    Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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    Hal-Diderot
    Article . 2016
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Recolector de Cienci...arrow_drop_down
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      Horizon / Pleins textes
      Other literature type . 2016
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      Other literature type . 2016
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      Ecological Indicators
      Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
      License: Elsevier TDM
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Hal-Diderot
      Article . 2016
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    Authors: Ana, Popovic; Tran, Hai; Anatoly, Tchigvintsev; Mahbod, Hajighasemi; +17 Authors

    AbstractMetagenomics has made accessible an enormous reserve of global biochemical diversity. To tap into this vast resource of novel enzymes, we have screened over one million clones from metagenome DNA libraries derived from sixteen different environments for carboxylesterase activity and identified 714 positive hits. We have validated the esterase activity of 80 selected genes, which belong to 17 different protein families including unknown and cyclase-like proteins. Three metagenomic enzymes exhibited lipase activity, and seven proteins showed polyester depolymerization activity against polylactic acid and polycaprolactone. Detailed biochemical characterization of four new enzymes revealed their substrate preference, whereas their catalytic residues were identified using site-directed mutagenesis. The crystal structure of the metal-ion dependent esterase MGS0169 from the amidohydrolase superfamily revealed a novel active site with a bound unknown ligand. Thus, activity-centered metagenomics has revealed diverse enzymes and novel families of microbial carboxylesterases, whose activity could not have been predicted using bioinformatics tools.

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    Scientific Reports
    Other literature type . Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: David Leclère; Michael Obersteiner; M. Barrett; Stuart H. M. Butchart; +54 Authors

    Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy. To promote the recovery of the currently declining global trends in terrestrial biodiversity, increases in both the extent of land under conservation management and the sustainability of the global food system from farm to fork are required.

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    Authors: Forth, Jan H.; Forth, Leonie F.; Lycett, Samantha; Bell-Sakyi, Lesley; +8 Authors

    Additional file 5: Supplementary Appendix. Phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses of ASFLI-elements from different tick genomes and ASFV using different clock-rates and substitution models implemented in BEAST. Supplementary Appendix. Figure A1-A5, Tables A1-A7. FigA1- Phylogenetic tree of ASFV and ASFLI-elements. FigA2 – Phylogenetic tree of NCLDV including ASFV and ASFLI-elements. FigA3 – Time-scaled tree for partial EP1242L sequences from tick samples and reference ASFV (non-integrated). FigA4 - Time-scaled tree for partial EP1242L sequences from tick samples only (5e-7 substitutions per site per year). FigA5 - Time-scaled tree for partial EP1242L sequences from tick samples (1e-8 substitutions per site and year). Table A1 - Summary of EP1242L fragments derived from ticks and the tick cell line OME/CTVM21 (OME21) used in the analysis. Table A2 - Indels in the tick sample sequences relative to the start of EP1242L in ASFV|KM111295|Kenya|Ken06/Bus|2006. Table A3 - Estimated root height and overall mean clock rate for strict clocks with fixed priors. Table A4 - Estimated root height and overall (averaged over all branches) mean clock rate for relaxed clocks with fixed priors of the rate of the relaxed clock (some variation). Table A5 - Estimated root height and overall (averaged over all branches) mean clock rate for relaxed clocks with normal or log-normal priors on the rate of the relaxed clock (most variation). Table A6 - Estimated root height and overall (averaged over all branches) mean clock rate for strict clocks with log-normal priors on the rate of the strict clock for the five ASFV-like sequences from tick samples only. Table A7 - Marginal likelihood estimation using Path Sampling and Stepping Stone Sampling, showing that the log-normal clock rate prior with mean = 5e-7 is best, but not significantly better than the other clock rates.

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    Authors: Forth, Jan H.; Forth, Leonie F.; Lycett, Samantha; Bell-Sakyi, Lesley; +8 Authors

    Additional file 20: Figure S7. BLAST-analysis for identification of ASFLI-element containing contigs and annotation. 66,745 SPAdes assembled contigs were blasted (BLASTn, NCBI, v2.6.0+) against a customised database comprising all sequences with the NCBI taxonomy ID 10497 (African swine fever virus) (as of 16 January 2018). Hits were filtered using a cut off e-value of 1x10-4 and a minimum alignment length of 150 bp, resulting in 34 contigs. These were then blasted against the complete NCBI database (The non-redundant nucleotide collection) to reliably identify and annotate ASFV-like sequences and areas of the host genome using default parameters. BLASTp search of >500 bp ORFs was performed against the “Non-redundant protein sequences” database using default parameters.

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    Authors: Sutcliffe, Laura M. E.; Batáry, Péter; Kormann, Urs; Baldi, Andras; +39 Authors

    A large proportion of European biodiversity today depends on habitat provided by low‐intensity farming practices, yet this resource is declining as European agriculture intensifies. Within the European Union, particularly the central and eastern new member states have retained relatively large areas of species‐rich farmland, but despite increased investment in nature conservation here in recent years, farmland biodiversity trends appear to be worsening. Although the high biodiversity value of Central and Eastern European farmland has long been reported, the amount of research in the international literature focused on farmland biodiversity in this region remains comparatively tiny, and measures within the EU Common Agricultural Policy are relatively poorly adapted to support it. In this opinion study, we argue that, 10 years after the accession of the first eastern EU new member states, the continued under‐representation of the low‐intensity farmland in Central and Eastern Europe in the international literature and EU policy is impeding the development of sound, evidence‐based conservation interventions. The biodiversity benefits for Europe of existing low‐intensity farmland, particularly in the central and eastern states, should be harnessed before they are lost. Instead of waiting for species‐rich farmland to further decline, targeted research and monitoring to create locally appropriate conservation strategies for these habitats is needed now. Volkswagen Foundation

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    NARCIS; Research@WUR
    Other literature type . Article . 2015
    License: CC BY NC ND
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    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.co...
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    https://doi.org/10.7892/boris....
    Other literature type . 2015
    Data sources: Datacite
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    Authors: Tim Cowan; Gabriele C. Hegerl; Andrew Schurer; Simon F. B. Tett; +6 Authors

    The severe drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade coincided with record-breaking summer heatwaves that contributed to the socio-economic and ecological disaster over North America’s Great Plains. It remains unresolved to what extent these exceptional heatwaves, hotter than in historically forced coupled climate model simulations, were forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and exacerbated through human-induced deterioration of land cover. Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world. In the 1930s, the US was hit by a severe drought and record-breaking heatwaves in a period known as the Dust Bowl. Here, the authors present model experiments that suggest that warm North Atlantic temperatures and human devegetation played key roles in making these heatwaves particularly strong.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Europe PubMed Centra...arrow_drop_down
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    Europe PubMed Central
    Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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    Nature Communications
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    Oxford University Research Archive; Nature Communications
    Other literature type . Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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    Nature Communications
    Article . 2020
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    Nature Communications
    Article . 2020
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    Article . 2020
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      Europe PubMed Central
      Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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      Nature Communications
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      Oxford University Research Archive; Nature Communications
      Other literature type . Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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      Nature Communications
      Article . 2020
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      Nature Communications
      Article . 2020
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      Article . 2020
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    Authors: I P, Holman; C, Brown; V, Janes; D, Sandars;

    The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (< 33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability. Highlights • Future European land systems modelled across scenario space. • Substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under divergent conditions • Currently marginal agricultural areas may face complex and difficult choices.

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    Europe PubMed Central
    Article . 2017
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