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Abstract. The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global meansea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arcticcontinues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increasedsurface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat ofmarine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble ofGreenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset ofthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level risecontributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of theIce Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate thesea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climateforcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the twogreenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The resultsindicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in bothscenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largestmass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed bysurface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today.Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced controlexperiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. massloss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcingremained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertaintyexplains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty andocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm,respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, thelargest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding andimplementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheetwith the ocean. info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Nature-based solutions offer an exciting prospect for resilience building and advancing urban planning to address complex urban challenges simultaneously. In this article, we formulated through a coproduction process in workshops held during the first IPCC Cities and Climate Science Conference in Edmonton, Canada, in March 2018, a series of synthesis statements on the role, potential, and research gaps of nature-based solutions for climate adaptation and mitigation. We address interlocking questions about the evidence and knowledge needed for integrating nature-based solutions into urban agendas. We elaborate on the ways to advance the planning and knowledge agenda for nature-based solutions by focusing on knowledge coproduction, indicators and big data, and novel financing models. With this article, we intend to open a wider discussion on how cities can effectively mainstream nature-based solutions to mitigate and adapt to the negative effects of climate change and the future role of urban science in coproducing nature-based solutions. Also available at: Frantzeskaki, MacPhearson & Collier et al 2019. If you have any difficulty accessing this document, or you would like to know more about the Connecting Nature project, please email marcus.collier@tcd.ie.

Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data have shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently, there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emission estimates back in time based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant, with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 Pg C yr−1. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990s after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates, and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 % of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emission estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations.

Jellyfishes have functionally replaced several overexploited commercial stocks of planktivorous fishes. This is paradoxical, because they use a primitive prey capture mechanism requiring direct contact with the prey, whereas fishes use more efficient visual detection. We have compiled published data to show that, in spite of their primitive life-style, jellyfishes exhibit similar instantaneous prey clearance and respiration rates as their fish competitors and similar potential for growth and reproduction. To achieve this production, they have evolved large, water-laden bodies that increase prey contact rates. Although larger bodies are less efficient for swimming, optimization analysis reveals that large collectors are advantageous if they move through the water sufficiently slowly.

Pockmarks are crater-like depression on the seafloor associated with hydrocarbon ascent through muddy sediments in continental shelves around the world. In this study, we examine the diversity and distribution of benthic microbial communities at shallow-water pockmarks adjacent to the Middle Adriatic Ridge. We integrate microbial diversity data with characterization of local hydrocarbons concentrations and sediment geochemistry. Our results suggest these pockmarks are enriched in sedimentary hydrocarbons, and host a microbial community dominated by Bacteria, even in deeper sediment layers. Pockmark sediments showed higher prokaryotic abundance and biomass than surrounding sediments, potentially due to the increased availability of organic matter and higher concentrations of hydrocarbons linked to pockmark activity. Prokaryotic diversity analyses showed that the microbial communities of these shallow- water pockmarks are unique, and comprised phylotypes associated with the cycling of sulfur and nitrate compounds, as well as numerous know hydrocarbon degraders. Altogether, this study suggests that shallow-water pockmark habitats enhance the diversity of the benthic prokaryotic biosphere by providing specialized environmental niches.

Foraminifera are an ecologically important group of modern heterotrophic amoeboid eukaryotes whose naked and testate ancestors are thought to have evolved ∼1 Ga ago. However, the single-chambered agglutinated tests of these protists appear in the fossil record only after ca. 580 Ma, coinciding with the appearance of macroscopic and mineralized animals. Here we report the discovery of small, slender tubular microfossils in the Sturtian (ca. 716–635 Ma) cap carbonate of the Rasthof Formation in Namibia. The tubes are 200–1300 μm long and 20–70 μm wide, and preserve apertures and variably wide lumens, folds, constrictions, and ridges. Their sometimes flexible walls are composed of carbonaceous material and detrital minerals. This combination of morphologic and compositional characters is also present in some species of modern single-chambered agglutinated tubular foraminiferans, and is not found in other agglutinated eukaryotes. The preservation of possible early Foraminifera in the carbonate rocks deposited in the immediate aftermath of Sturtian low-latitude glaciation indicates that various morphologically modern protists thrived in microbially dominated ecosystems, and contributed to the cycling of carbon in Neoproterozoic oceans much before the rise of complex animals.