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37 Research products

  • SDSN - Greece
  • 2014-2023
  • Publications
  • Research software
  • UK Research and Innovation
  • FR
  • Mémoires en Sciences de l'Information et de la Communication
  • Hal-Diderot

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    Authors: Jingjing Liang; Javier G. P. Gamarra; Nicolas Picard; Mo Zhou; +217 Authors

    The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most recognized global patterns of species richness exhibited across a wide range of taxa. Numerous hypotheses have been proposed in the past two centuries to explain LDG, but rigorous tests of the drivers of LDGs have been limited by a lack of high-quality global species richness data. Here we produce a high-resolution (0.025° × 0.025°) map of local tree species richness using a global forest inventory database with individual tree information and local biophysical characteristics from ~1.3 million sample plots. We then quantify drivers of local tree species richness patterns across latitudes. Generally, annual mean temperature was a dominant predictor of tree species richness, which is most consistent with the metabolic theory of biodiversity (MTB). However, MTB underestimated LDG in the tropics, where high species richness was also moderated by topographic, soil and anthropogenic factors operating at local scales. Given that local landscape variables operate synergistically with bioclimatic factors in shaping the global LDG pattern, we suggest that MTB be extended to account for co-limitation by subordinate drivers. The team collaboration and manuscript development are supported by the web-based team science platform: science-i.org, with the project number 202205GFB2. We thank the following initiatives, agencies, teams and individuals for data collection and other technical support: the Global Forest Biodiversity Initiative (GFBI) for establishing the data standards and collaborative framework; United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program; University of Alaska Fairbanks; the SODEFOR, Ivory Coast; University Félix Houphouët-Boigny (UFHB, Ivory Coast); the Queensland Herbarium and past Queensland Government Forestry and Natural Resource Management departments and staff for data collection for over seven decades; and the National Forestry Commission of Mexico (CONAFOR). We thank M. Baker (Carbon Tanzania), together with a team of field assistants (Valentine and Lawrence); all persons who made the Third Spanish Forest Inventory possible, especially the main coordinator, J. A. Villanueva (IFN3); the French National Forest Inventory (NFI campaigns (raw data 2005 and following annual surveys, were downloaded by GFBI at https://inventaire-forestier.ign.fr/spip.php?rubrique159; site accessed on 1 January 2015)); the Italian Forest Inventory (NFI campaigns raw data 2005 and following surveys were downloaded by GFBI at https://inventarioforestale.org/; site accessed on 27 April 2019); Swiss National Forest Inventory, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL and Federal Office for the Environment FOEN, Switzerland; the Swedish NFI, Department of Forest Resource Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences SLU; the National Research Foundation (NRF) of South Africa (89967 and 109244) and the South African Research Chair Initiative; the Danish National Forestry, Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, UCPH; Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel of Brazil (CAPES, grant number 88881.064976/2014-01); R. Ávila and S. van Tuylen, Instituto Nacional de Bosques (INAB), Guatemala, for facilitating Guatemalan data; the National Focal Center for Forest condition monitoring of Serbia (NFC), Institute of Forestry, Belgrade, Serbia; the Thünen Institute of Forest Ecosystems (Germany) for providing National Forest Inventory data; the FAO and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for undertaking the SAFE (Safe Access to Fuel and Energy) and CBIT-Forest projects; and the Amazon Forest Inventory Network (RAINFOR), the African Tropical Rainforest Observation Network (AfriTRON) and the ForestPlots.net initiative for their contributions from Amazonian and African forests. The Natural Forest plot data collected between January 2009 and March 2014 by the LUCAS programme for the New Zealand Ministry for the Environment are provided by the New Zealand National Vegetation Survey Databank https://nvs.landcareresearch.co.nz/. We thank the International Boreal Forest Research Association (IBFRA); the Forestry Corporation of New South Wales, Australia; the National Forest Directory of the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development of the Argentine Republic (MAyDS) for the plot data of the Second National Forest Inventory (INBN2); the National Forestry Authority and Ministry of Water and Environment of Uganda for their National Biomass Survey (NBS) dataset; and the Sabah Biodiversity Council and the staff from Sabah Forest Research Centre. All TEAM data are provided by the Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network, a collaboration between Conservation International, the Missouri Botanical Garden, the Smithsonian Institution and the Wildlife Conservation Society, and partially funded by these institutions, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and other donors, with thanks to all current and previous TEAM site manager and other collaborators that helped collect data. We thank the people of the Redidoti, Pierrekondre and Cassipora village who were instrumental in assisting with the collection of data and sharing local knowledge of their forest and the dedicated members of the field crew of Kabo 2012 census. We are also thankful to FAPESC, SFB, FAO and IMA/SC for supporting the IFFSC. This research was supported in part through computational resources provided by Information Technology at Purdue, West Lafayette, Indiana.This work is supported in part by the NASA grant number 12000401 ‘Multi-sensor biodiversity framework developed from bioacoustic and space based sensor platforms’ (J. Liang, B.P.); the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture McIntire Stennis projects 1017711 (J. Liang) and 1016676 (M.Z.); the US National Science Foundation Biological Integration Institutes grant NSF‐DBI‐2021898 (P.B.R.); the funding by H2020 VERIFY (contract 776810) and H2020 Resonate (contract 101000574) (G.-J.N.); the TEAM project in Uganda supported by the Moore foundation and Buffett Foundation through Conservation International (CI) and Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS); the Danish Council for Independent Research | Natural Sciences (TREECHANGE, grant 6108- 00078B) and VILLUM FONDEN grant number 16549 (J.-C.S.); the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK (NERC) project NE/T011084/1 awarded to J.A.-G. and NE/S011811/1; ERC Advanced Grant 291585 (‘T-FORCES’) and a Royal Society-Wolfson Research Merit Award (O.L.P.); RAINFOR plots supported by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the UK Natural Environment Research Council, notably NERC Consortium Grants ‘AMAZONICA’ (NE/F005806/1), ‘TROBIT’ (NE/D005590/1) and ‘BIO-RED’ (NE/N012542/1); CIFOR’s Global Comparative Study on REDD+ funded by the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the European Union, the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety and the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (CRP-FTA) and donors to the CGIAR Fund; AfriTRON network plots funded by the local communities and NERC, ERC, European Union, Royal Society and Leverhume Trust; a grant from the Royal Society and the Natural Environment Research Council, UK (S.L.L.); National Science Foundation CIF21 DIBBs: EI: number 1724728 (A.C.C.); National Natural Science Foundation of China (31800374) and Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation (ZR2019BC083) (H.L.). UK NERC Independent Research Fellowship (grant code: NE/S01537X/1) (T.J.); a Serra-Húnter Fellowship provided by the Government of Catalonia (Spain) (S.d.-M.); the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq, grant 442640/2018-8, CNPq/Prevfogo-Ibama number 33/2018) (C.A.S.); a grant from the Franklinia Foundation (D.A.C.); Russian Science Foundation project number 19-77-300-12 (R.V.); the Takenaka Scholarship Foundation (A.O.A.); the German Research Foundation (DFG), grant number Am 149/16-4 (C.A.); the Romania National Council for Higher Education Funding, CNFIS, project number CNFIS-FDI-2022-0259 (O.B.); Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (RGPIN-2019-05109 and STPGP506284) and the Canadian Foundation for Innovation (36014) (H.Y.H.C.); the project SustES—Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797) (E.C.); Consejo de Ciencia y Tecnología del estado de Durango (2019-01-155) (J.J.C.-R.); Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB), New Delhi, Government of India (file number PDF/2015/000447)— ‘Assessing the carbon sequestration potential of different forest types in Central India in response to climate change’ (J.A.D.); Investissement d’avenir grant of the ANR (CEBA: ANR-10-LABEX-0025) (G.D.); National Foundation for Science & Technology Development of Vietnam, 106-NN.06-2013.01 (T.V.D.); Queensland government, Department of Environment and Science (T.J.E.); a Czech Science Foundation Standard grant (19-14620S) (T.M.F.); European Union Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007– 2013) under grant agreement number 265171 (L. Finer, M. Pollastrini, F. Selvi); grants from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (J.F.); CNPq productivity grant number 311303/2020-0 (A.L.d.G.); DFG grant HE 2719/11-1,2,3; HE 2719/14-1 (A. Hemp); European Union’s Horizon Europe research project OpenEarthMonitor grant number 101059548, CGIAR Fund INIT-32-MItigation and Transformation Initiative for GHG reductions of Agrifood systems RelaTed Emissions (MITIGATE+) (M.H.); General Directorate of the State Forests, Poland (1/07; OR-2717/3/11; OR.271.3.3.2017) and the National Centre for Research and Development, Poland (BIOSTRATEG1/267755/4/NCBR/2015) (A.M.J.); Czech Science Foundation 18-10781 S (S.J.); Danish of Ministry of Environment, the Danish Environmental Protection Agency, Integrated Forest Monitoring Program—NFI (V.K.J.); State of São Paulo Research Foundation/FAPESP as part of the BIOTA/FAPESP Program Project Functional Gradient-PELD/BIOTA-ECOFOR 2003/12595-7 & 2012/51872-5 (C.A.J.); Danish Council for Independent Research—social sciences—grant DFF 6109– 00296 (G.A.K.); Russian Science Foundation project 21-46-07002 for the plot data collected in the Krasnoyarsk region (V.K.); BOLFOR (D.K.K.); Department of Biotechnology, New Delhi, Government of India (grant number BT/PR7928/ NDB/52/9/2006, dated 29 September 2006) (M.L.K.); grant from Kenya Coastal Development Project (KCDP), which was funded by World Bank (J.N.K.); Korea Forest Service (2018113A00-1820-BB01, 2013069A00-1819-AA03, and 2020185D10- 2022-AA02) and Seoul National University Big Data Institute through the Data Science Research Project 2016 (H.S.K.); the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq, grant 442640/2018-8, CNPq/Prevfogo-Ibama number 33/2018) (C.K.); CSIR, New Delhi, government of India (grant number 38(1318)12/EMR-II, dated: 3 April 2012) (S.K.); Department of Biotechnology, New Delhi, government of India (grant number BT/ PR12899/ NDB/39/506/2015 dated 20 June 2017) (A.K.); Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) #88887.463733/2019-00 (R.V.L.); National Natural Science Foundation of China (31800374) (H.L.); project of CEPF RAS ‘Methodological approaches to assessing the structural organization and functioning of forest ecosystems’ (AAAA-A18-118052590019-7) funded by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Russia (N.V.L.); Leverhulme Trust grant to Andrew Balmford, Simon Lewis and Jon Lovett (A.R.M.); Russian Science Foundation, project 19-77-30015 for European Russia data processing (O.M.); grant from Kenya Coastal Development Project (KCDP), which was funded by World Bank (M.T.E.M.); the National Centre for Research and Development, Poland (BIOSTRATEG1/267755/4/NCBR/2015) (S.M.); the Secretariat for Universities and of the Ministry of Business and Knowledge of the Government of Catalonia and the European Social Fund (A. Morera); Queensland government, Department of Environment and Science (V.J.N.); Pinnacle Group Cameroon PLC (L.N.N.); Queensland government, Department of Environment and Science (M.R.N.); the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (RGPIN-2018-05201) (A.P.); the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project number 20-05-00540 (E.I.P.); European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement number 778322 (H.P.); Science and Engineering Research Board, New Delhi, government of India (grant number YSS/2015/000479, dated 12 January 2016) (P.S.); the Chilean Government research grants Fondecyt number 1191816 and FONDEF number ID19 10421 (C.S.-E.); the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) Priority Program 1374 Biodiversity Exploratories (P.S.); European Space Agency projects IFBN (4000114425/15/NL/FF/gp) and CCI Biomass (4000123662/18/I-NB) (D. Schepaschenko); FunDivEUROPE, European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement number 265171 (M.S.-L.); APVV 20-0168 from the Slovak Research and Development Agency (V.S.); Manchester Metropolitan University’s Environmental Science Research Centre (G.S.); the project ‘LIFE+ ForBioSensing PL Comprehensive monitoring of stand dynamics in Białowieża Forest supported with remote sensing techniques’ which is co-funded by the EU Life Plus programme (contract number LIFE13 ENV/PL/000048) and the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management in Poland (contract number 485/2014/WN10/OP-NM-LF/D) (K.J.S.); Global Challenges Research Fund (QR allocation, MMU) (M.J.P.S.); Czech Science Foundation project 21-27454S (M.S.); the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project number 20-05-00540 (N. Tchebakova); Botanical Research Fund, Coalbourn Trust, Bentham Moxon Trust, Emily Holmes scholarship (L.A.T.); the programmes of the current scientific research of the Botanical Garden of the Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (V.A.U.); FCT—Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology—Project UIDB/04033/2020. Inventário Florestal Nacional—ICNF (H. Viana); Grant from Kenya Coastal Development Project (KCDP), which was funded by World Bank (C.W.); grants from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (B.W.); ATTO project (grant number MCTI-FINEP 1759/10 and BMBF 01LB1001A, 01LK1602F) (F.W.); ReVaTene/ PReSeD-CI 2 is funded by the Education and Research Ministry of Côte d’Ivoire, as part of the Debt Reduction-Development Contracts (C2Ds) managed by IRD (I.C.Z.-B.); the National Research Foundation of South Africa (NRF, grant 89967) (C.H.). The Tropical Plant Exploration Group 70 1 ha plots in Continental Cameroon Mountains are supported by Rufford Small Grant Foundation, UK and 4 ha in Sierra Leone are supported by the Global Challenge Research Fund through Manchester Metropolitan University, UK; the National Geographic Explorer Grant, NGS-53344R-18 (A.C.-S.); University of KwaZulu-Natal Research Office grant (M.J.L.); Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Dirección General de Asuntos de Personal Académico, Grant PAPIIT IN-217620 (J.A.M.). Czech Science Foundation project 21-24186M (R.T., S. Delabye). Czech Science Foundation project 20-05840Y, the Czech Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (LTAUSA19137) and the long-term research development project of the Czech Academy of Sciences no. RVO 67985939 (J.A.). The American Society of Primatologists, the Duke University Graduate School, the L.S.B. Leakey Foundation, the National Science Foundation (grant number 0452995) and the Wenner-Gren Foundation for Anthropological Research (grant number 7330) (M.B.). Research grants from Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnologico (CNPq, Brazil) (309764/2019; 311303/2020) (A.C.V., A.L.G.). The Project of Sanya Yazhou Bay Science and Technology City (grant number CKJ-JYRC-2022-83) (H.-F.W.). The Ugandan NBS was supported with funds from the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF), the Austrian Development Agency (ADC) and FAO. FAO’s UN-REDD Program, together with the project on ‘Native Forests and Community’ Loan BIRF number 8493-AR UNDP ARG/15/004 and the National Program for the Protection of Native Forests under UNDP funded Argentina’s INBN2.

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    Authors: Magnan, Alexandre K.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Garschagen, Matthias; Buchanan, Maya K.; +13 Authors

    AbstractSea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions.

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    Authors: Geert Jan Van Oldenborgh; Michael F. Wehner; Robert Vautard; Friederike E. L. Otto; +5 Authors

    It sounds straightforward. As the Earth warms due to the increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, global temperatures rise and so heatwaves become warmer as well. This means that a fixed temperature threshold is passed more often: the probability of extreme heat increases. However, land use changes, vegetation change, irrigation, air pollution, and other changes also drive local and regional trends in heatwaves. Sometimes they enhance heatwave intensity, but they can also counteract the effects of climate change, and in some regions, the mechanisms that impact on trends in heatwaves have not yet been fully identified. Climate models simulate heatwaves and the increased intensity and probability of extreme heat reasonably well on large scales. However, changes in annual daily maximum temperatures do not follow global warming over some regions, including the Eastern United States and parts of Asia, reflecting the influence of local drivers as well as natural variability. Also, temperature variability is unrealistic in many models, and can fail standard quality checks. Therefore, reliable attribution and projection of change in heatwaves remain a major scientific challenge in many regions, particularly where the moisture budget is not well simulated, and where land surface changes, changes in short-lived forcers, and soil moisture interactions are important. Earth's Future, 10 (6) ISSN:2328-4277

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    Earth's Future
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      Earth's Future
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    Authors: Cynthia H. Whaley; Rashed Mahmood; Knut von Salzen; Barbara Winter; +52 Authors

    While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, modeling short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles in the Arctic allows us to simulate near-term climate and health impacts for a sensitive, pristine region that is warming at 3 times the global rate. Atmospheric modeling is critical for understanding the long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, as well as the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere. Modeling is also used as a tool to determine SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models by assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over 4 years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2022 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship, and aircraft-based observations. The annual means, seasonal cycles, and 3-D distributions of SLCFs were evaluated using several metrics, such as absolute and percent model biases and correlation coefficients. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean (mmm) was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic and had the best overall performance. For the SLCFs with the greatest radiative impact (CH4, O3, BC, and SO), the mmm was within ±25 % of the measurements across the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, we recommend a multi-model ensemble be used for simulating climate and health impacts of SLCFs. Of the SLCFs in our study, model biases were smallest for CH4 and greatest for OA. For most SLCFs, model biases skewed from positive to negative with increasing latitude. Our analysis suggests that vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfires remain highly uncertain processes. These processes need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment. As model development proceeds in these areas, we highly recommend that the vertical and 3-D distribution of SLCFs be evaluated, as that information is critical to improving the uncertain processes in models. Assessments from the Russian ship-based campaign were performed with the support of RFBR project no. 20-55-12001 and according to the development program of the Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University “Future Planet and Global Environmental Change”. Development of the methodology for aethalometric data treatment was supported by RSF project no. 19-77-30004. The BC observations on R/V Mirai were supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan (Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS) project). Contributions by SMHI were funded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency under contract NV-03174-20 and the Swedish Climate and Clean Air Research program (SCAC) as well as partly by the Swedish National Space Board (NORD-SLCP, grant agreement ID: 94/16) and the EU Horizon 2020 project Integrated Arctic Observing System (INTAROS, grant agreement ID: 727890). Work on ACE-FTS analysis was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). Julia Schmale received funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (project no. 200021_188478). Duncan Watson-Parris received funding from NERC projects NE/P013406/1 (A-CURE) and NE/S005390/1 (ACRUISE) as well as funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program iMIRACLI under Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 860100. LATMOS has been supported by the EU iCUPE (Integrating and Comprehensive Understanding on Polar Environments) project (grant agreement no. 689443) under the European Network for Observing our Changing Planet (ERA-Planet), as well as access to IDRIS HPC resources (GENCI allocation A009017141) and the IPSL mesoscale computing center (CICLAD: Calcul Intensif pour le CLimat, l’Atmosphère et la Dynamique) for model simulations. Naga Oshima was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (grant nos. JP18H03363, JP18H05292, and JP21H03582), the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (grant nos. JPMEERF20202003 and JPMEERF20205001) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II (ArCS II) under program grant no. JPMXD1420318865, and a grant for the Global Environmental Research Coordination System from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (MLIT1753). The research with GISS-E2.1 has been supported by the Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change (iClimate) OH fund (no. 2020-0162731), the FREYA project funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers (grant agreement nos. MST-227-00036 and MFVM-2019-13476), and the EVAM-SLCF funded by the Danish Environmental Agency (grant agreement no. MST-112-00298). Jesper Christensen (for DEHM model) received funding from the Danish Environmental Protection Agency (DANCEA funds for Environmental Support to the Arctic Region project; grant no. 2019-7975). Maria Sand has been supported by the Research Council of Norway (grant 315195, ACCEPT). Peer Reviewed "Article signat per més de 50 autors/es: Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Silvia Becagli, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Sujay Manish Damani, Xinyi Dong, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Fabio Giardi, Wanmin Gong, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Lin Huang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Srinath Krishnan, Zbigniew Klimont, Thomas Kühn, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Andreas Massling, Dirk Olivié, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Yiran Peng, David A. Plummer, Olga Popovicheva, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Maria Sand, Laura N. Saunders, Julia Schmale, Sangeeta Sharma, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Henrik Skov, Fumikazu Taketani, Manu A. Thomas, Rita Traversi, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven Turnock, Vito Vitale, Kaley A. Walker, Minqi Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Tahya Weiss-Gibbons "

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    Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
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    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)
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      Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)
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    Authors: Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto; Reich, Peter B; Gamarra, Javier GP; Crowther, Tom; +144 Authors

    One of the most fundamental questions in ecology is how many species inhabit the Earth. However, due to massive logistical and financial challenges and taxonomic difficulties connected to the species concept definition, the global numbers of species, including those of important and well-studied life forms such as trees, still remain largely unknown. Here, based on global ground-sourced data, we estimate the total tree species richness at global, continental, and biome levels. Our results indicate that there are ∼73,000 tree species globally, among which ∼9,000 tree species are yet to be discovered. Roughly 40% of undiscovered tree species are in South America. Moreover, almost one-third of all tree species to be discovered may be rare, with very low populations and limited spatial distribution (likely in remote tropical lowlands and mountains). These findings highlight the vulnerability of global forest biodiversity to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate, which disproportionately threaten rare species and thus, global tree richness. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119 (6) ISSN:1091-6490 ISSN:0027-8424

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    NARCIS; Research@WUR
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    Apollo
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    Apollo
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      Repositori Obert UdL
      Article . 2022
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      IIASA PURE
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    Authors: Dembélé, Moctar; Vrac, Mathieu; Ceperley, Natalie; Zwart, Sander J.; +4 Authors

    A comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources of the West Africa Volta River basin is conducted in this study, as the region is expected to be hardest hit by global warming. A large ensemble of 12 general circulation models (GCMs) from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that are dynamically downscaled by five regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional-climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-Africa is used. In total, 43 RCM–GCM combinations are considered under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The reliability of each of the climate datasets is first evaluated with satellite and reanalysis reference datasets. Subsequently, the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) multivariate bias correction method is applied to the climate datasets. The bias-corrected climate projections are then used as input to the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) for hydrological projections over the 21st century (1991–2100). Results reveal contrasting dynamics in the seasonality of rainfall, depending on the selected greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the future projection periods. Although air temperature and potential evaporation increase under all RCPs, an increase in the magnitude of all hydrological variables (actual evaporation, total runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage) is only projected under RCP8.5. High- and low-flow analysis suggests an increased flood risk under RCP8.5, particularly in the Black Volta, while hydrological droughts would be recurrent under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, particularly in the White Volta. The evolutions of streamflow indicate a future delay in the date of occurrence of low flows up to 11 d under RCP8.5, while high flows could occur 6 d earlier (RCP2.6) or 5 d later (RCP8.5), as compared to the historical period. Disparities are observed in the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables across climatic zones, with higher warming in the Sahelian zone. Therefore, climate change would have severe implications for future water availability with concerns for rain-fed agriculture, thereby weakening the water–energy–food security nexus and amplifying the vulnerability of the local population. The variability between climate models highlights uncertainties in the projections and indicates a need to better represent complex climate features in regional models. These findings could serve as a guideline for both the scientific community to improve climate change projections and for decision-makers to elaborate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change and strengthen regional socioeconomic development.

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    NERC Open Research Archive
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    Oxford University Research Archive
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    https://doi.org/10.48350/16841...
    Article . 2022
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      NERC Open Research Archive
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      https://doi.org/10.48350/16841...
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    Authors: Carbone, F.; Sorriso-Valvo, L.; Khotyaintsev, Y.V.; Steinvall, K.; +27 Authors

    Context.The recently released spacecraft potential measured by the RPW instrument on board Solar Orbiter has been used to estimate the solar wind electron density in the inner heliosphere.Aims.The measurement of the solar wind’s electron density, taken in June 2020, has been analysed to obtain a thorough characterization of the turbulence and intermittency properties of the fluctuations. Magnetic field data have been used to describe the presence of ion-scale waves.Methods.To study and quantify the properties of turbulence, we extracted selected intervals. We used empirical mode decomposition to obtain the generalized marginal Hilbert spectrum, equivalent to the structure functions analysis, which additionally reduced issues typical of non-stationary, short time series. The presence of waves was quantitatively determined by introducing a parameter describing the time-dependent, frequency-filtered wave power.Results.A well-defined inertial range with power-law scalng was found almost everywhere in the sample studied. However, the Kolmogorov scaling and the typical intermittency effects are only present in fraction of the samples. Other intervals have shallower spectra and more irregular intermittency, which are not described by models of turbulence. These are observed predominantly during intervals of enhanced ion frequency wave activity. Comparisons with compressible magnetic field intermittency (from the MAG instrument) and with an estimate of the solar wind velocity (using electric and magnetic field) are also provided to give general context and help determine the cause of these anomalous fluctuations.

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    NARCIS
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    Radboud Repository
    Article . 2021
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    Astronomy and Astrophysics
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    Authors: Marelle, Louis; Thomas, Jennie L.; Ahmed, Shaddy; Tuite, Katie; +5 Authors

    Abstract Elevated concentrations of atmospheric bromine are known to cause ozone depletion in the Arctic, which is most frequently observed during springtime. We implement a detailed description of bromine and chlorine chemistry within the WRF‐Chem 4.1.1 model, and two different descriptions of Arctic bromine activation: (1) heterogeneous chemistry on surface snow on sea ice, triggered by ozone deposition to snow (Toyota et al., 2011 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-3949-2011), and (2) heterogeneous reactions on sea salt aerosols emitted through the sublimation of lofted blowing snow (Yang et al., 2008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl034536). In both mechanisms, bromine activation is sustained by heterogeneous reactions on aerosols and surface snow. Simulations for spring 2012 covering the entire Arctic reproduce frequent and widespread ozone depletion events, and comparisons with observations of ozone show that these developments significantly improve model predictions during the Arctic spring. Simulations show that ozone depletion events can be initiated by both surface snow on sea ice, or by aerosols that originate from blowing snow. On a regional scale, in spring 2012, snow on sea ice dominates halogen activation and ozone depletion at the surface. During this period, blowing snow is a major source of Arctic sea salt aerosols but only triggers a few depletion events. Key Points Halogen activation and its role in Arctic surface ozone depletion events (ODEs) is modeled using WRF‐ChemTwo halogen activation mechanisms are implemented (1) surface snow and (2) blowing snowA spring 2012 case study indicates that both mechanisms can trigger near‐surface ODEs, but that surface snow dominates

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