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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Juan A. Fernández-Granja; Swen Brands; Joaquín Bedia; Ana Casanueva; +1 Authors

    The Jenkinson–Collison weather typing scheme (JC-WT) is an automated method used to classify regional sea-level pressure into a reduced number of typical recurrent patterns. Originally developed for the British Isles in the early 1970’s on the basis of expert knowledge, the method since then has seen many applications. Encouraged by the premise that the JC-WT approach can in principle be applied to any mid-to-high latitude region, the present study explores its global extra-tropical applicability, including the Southern Hemisphere. To this aim, JC-WT is applied at each grid-box of a global 2.5 regular grid excluding the inner tropics (± 5º band). Thereby, 6-hourly JC-WT catalogues are obtained for 5 distinct reanalyses, covering the period 1979–2005, which are then applied to explore (1) the limits of method applicability and (2) observational uncertainties inherent to the reanalysis datasets. Using evaluation criteria, such as the diversity of occurring circulation types and the frequency of unclassified situations, we extract empirically derived applicability thresholds which suggest that JC-WT can be generally used anywhere polewards of 23.5º, with some exceptions. Seasonal fluctuations compromise this finding along the equatorward limits of the domain. Furthermore, unreliable reanalysis sea-level pressure estimates in elevated areas with complex orography (such as the Tibetan Plateau, the Andes, Greenland and Antarctica) prevent the application of the method in these regions. In some other regions, the JC-WT classifications obtained from the distinct reanalyses substantially differ from each other, which may bring additional uncertainties when the method is used in model evaluation experiments. This paper is part of the R+D+i projects CORDyS (PID2020-116595RB-I00) and ATLAS (PID2019-111481RB-I00), funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. J.A.F. has received research support from grant PRE2020-094728 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. J.B. and A.C. received research support from the project INDECIS, part of the European Research Area for Climate Services Consortium (ERA4CS) with co-funding by the European Union (grant no. 690462). Open Access funding provided thanks to the CRUE-CSIC agreement with Springer Nature. Peer reviewed

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ UCrea; Recolector de...arrow_drop_down
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
    DIGITAL.CSIC
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
    Data sources: DIGITAL.CSIC
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ UCrea; Recolector de...arrow_drop_down
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Climate Dynamics
      Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Crossref
      DIGITAL.CSIC
      Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
      Data sources: DIGITAL.CSIC
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Joren Van Nieuwenhuyse; Bert Van Schaeybroeck; Steven Caluwaerts; Jonathan De Deyn; +4 Authors

    Estimating the impact of climate change and emission scenarios on air pollution can be done using regional climate models (RCMs). Climate uncertainties are commonly estimated using RCM ensembles such as provided by EURO-CORDEX. Despite the strong relations between the weather and air pollutants, interactions are usually complex and require meteorological parameters that are not commonly available for the RCM ensembles. Pollution peaks, however, often coincide with stagnant atmospheric conditions that can be captured with widely-available RCM data. We first show that a commonly-used atmospheric stability index that uses rainfall, near-surface and 500 hPa wind speed, relates well to average and extreme air pollutant concentrations over Europe using Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) data. We then provide an in-depth validation of 25 RCMs to reproduce the spatio-temporal features of air stagnation by comparison with ERA5. Overall the models were found to reproduce stagnant episodes fairly well, especially after bias correction. The systematic underestimation of stagnation frequency and duration is traced back to overestimated near-surface wind speed for a large group of models at high-elevation regions where the temporal correlations are also low. Regardless of the reference dataset, two model groups are identified that, independent on their resolution, give strongly different results in terms of orographic dependence of surface wind speed. These strong discrepancies underscore the need for bias correction when using RCM data for analysis of stagnation episodes.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Ghent University Aca...arrow_drop_down
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    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Springer Nature TDM
    Data sources: Crossref
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Ghent University Aca...arrow_drop_down
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      image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
      Climate Dynamics
      Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
      License: Springer Nature TDM
      Data sources: Crossref
      image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Filippo Calì Quaglia; Silvia Terzago; Jost von Hardenberg;

    AbstractThis study considers a set of state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems (ECMWF, MF, UKMO, CMCC, DWD and the corresponding multi-model ensemble) and quantifies their added value (if any) in predicting seasonal and monthly temperature and precipitation anomalies over the Mediterranean region compared to a simple forecasting method based on the ERA5 climatology (CTRL) or the persistence of the ERA5 anomaly (PERS). This analysis considers two starting dates, May 1st and November 1st and the forecasts at lead times up to 6 months for each year in the period 1993–2014. Both deterministic and probabilistic metrics are employed to derive comprehensive information on the forecast quality in terms of association, reliability/resolution, discrimination, accuracy and sharpness. We find that temperature anomalies are better reproduced than precipitation anomalies with varying spatial patterns across different forecast systems. The Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) shows the best agreement in terms of anomaly correlation with ERA5 precipitation, while PERS provides the best results in terms of anomaly correlation with ERA5 temperature. Individual forecast systems and MME outperform CTRL in terms of accuracy of tercile-based forecasts up to lead time 5 months and in terms of discrimination up to lead time 2 months. All seasonal forecast systems also outperform elementary forecasts based on persistence in terms of accuracy and sharpness.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Archivio istituziona...arrow_drop_down
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    Climate Dynamics
    Article
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: UnpayWall
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Albert Ossó; Richard P. Allan; Ed Hawkins; Len Shaffrey; +1 Authors

    AbstractHuman society and natural systems are intrinsically adapted to the local climate mean and variability. Therefore, changes relative to the local expected variability are highly relevant for assessing impact and planning for adaptation as the climate changes. We analyse the emerging climate signal relative to the diagnosed internal variability (signal-to-noise ratio, S/N) of a set of recently published climate indices over Europe. We calculate the signal-to-noise ratio with respect to a recent baseline (1951–1983) which relates to recent societal experience. In this framework, we find that during the 2000–2016 period, many areas of Europe already experienced significant changes in climate extremes, even when compared to this recent period which is within living memory. In particular, the S/N of extreme temperatures is larger than 1 and 2 over 34% and 4% of Europe, respectively. We also find that about 15% of Europe is experiencing more intense winter precipitation events, while in summer, 7% of Europe is experiencing stronger drought-inducing conditions.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Climate Dynamicsarrow_drop_down
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Climate Dynamics
    Article
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: UnpayWall
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Climate Dynamicsarrow_drop_down
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      Climate Dynamics
      Article
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Climate Dynamics
      Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Soulivanh Thao; Mats Garvik; Gregoire Mariethoz; Mathieu Vrac;

    Abstract Global Climate Models are the main tools for climate projections. Since many models exist, it is common to use Multi-Model Ensembles to reduce biases and assess uncertainties in climate projections. Several approaches have been proposed to combine individual models and extract a robust signal from an ensemble. Among them, the Multi-Model Mean (MMM) is the most commonly used. Based on the assumption that the models are centered around the truth, it consists in averaging the ensemble, with the possibility of using equal weights for all models or to adjust weights to favor some models. In this paper, we propose a new alternative to reconstruct multi-decadal means of climate variables from a Multi-Model Ensemble, where the local performance of the models is taken into account. This is in contrast with MMM where a model has the same weight for all locations. Our approach is based on a computer vision method called graph cuts and consists in selecting for each grid point the most appropriate model, while at the same time considering the overall spatial consistency of the resulting field. The performance of the graph cuts approach is assessed based on two experiments: one where the ERA5 reanalyses are considered as the reference, and another involving a perfect model experiment where each model is in turn considered as the reference. We show that the graph cuts approach generally results in lower biases than other model combination approaches such as MMM, while at the same time preserving a similar level of spatial continuity. International audience

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Serveur académique l...arrow_drop_down
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    Serveur académique lausannois
    Article . 2022
    License: CC BY
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    https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3....
    Preprint . 2021
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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    Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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    Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2021
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      Serveur académique lausannois
      Article . 2022
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      https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3....
      Preprint . 2021
      License: CC BY
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      Climate Dynamics
      Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Crossref
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      Climate Dynamics
      Article . 2021
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    Authors: Bianca Mezzina; Froila M. Palmeiro; Javier García-Serrano; Ileana Bladé; +2 Authors

    The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the late-winter extra-tropical stratosphere (January–March) is assessed in a multi-model framework. Three state-of-the-art atmospheric models are run with prescribed SST anomalies representative of a strong ENSO event, with symmetric patterns for El Niño and La Niña. The well-known temperature perturbation in the lower stratosphere during El Niño is captured by two models, in which the anomalous warming at polar latitudes is accompanied by a positive geopotential height anomaly that extends over the polar cap. In the third model, which shows a lack of temperature anomalies over the pole, the anomalous anticyclone is confined over Canada and does not expand to the polar cap. This anomalous center of action emerges from the large-scale tropospheric Rossby wave train forced by ENSO, and shrinking/stretching around the polar vortex is invoked to link it to the temperature response. No disagreement across models is found in the lower stratosphere for La Niña, whose teleconnection is opposite in sign but weaker. In the middle-upper stratosphere (above 50 hPa) the geopotential height anomalies project on a wavenumber-1 (WN1) pattern for both El Niño and, more weakly, La Niña, and show a westward tilt with height up to the stratopause. It is suggested that this WN1 pattern arises from the high-latitude lower-stratospheric anomalies, and that the ENSO teleconnection to the polar stratosphere can be interpreted in terms of upward propagation of the stationary Rossby wave train and quasi-geostrophic balance, instead of wave breaking. This work was supported by the MEDSCOPE project. MEDSCOPE is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by AEMET (ES), ANR (FR), BSC (ES), CMCC (IT), CNR (IT), IMR (BE) and Météo-France (FR), with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). B.M. and J.G.-S. were supported by the “Contratos Predoctorales para la Formación de Doctores” (BES-2016-076431) and “Ramón y Cajal” (RYC-2016-21181) programmes, respectively. F.M.P. was partially supported by the Spanish DANAE (CGL2015-68342-R) and GRAVITOCAST (ERC2018-092835) projects. Technical support at BSC (Computational Earth Sciences group) is sincerely acknowledged. We also thank the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful feedback. Peer Reviewed

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    Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
    Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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    Climate Dynamics
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      Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
      Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Stefano Materia; Constantin Ardilouze; Chloé Prodhomme; Markus G. Donat; +6 Authors

    Land surface and atmosphere are interlocked by the hydrological and energy cycles and the effects of soil water-air coupling can modulate near-surface temperatures. In this work, three paired experiments were designed to evaluate impacts of different soil moisture initial and boundary conditions on summer temperatures in the Mediterranean transitional climate regime region. In this area, evapotranspiration is not limited by solar radiation, rather by soil moisture, which therefore controls the boundary layer variability. Extremely dry, extremely wet and averagely humid ground conditions are imposed to two global climate models at the beginning of the warm and dry season. Then, sensitivity experiments, where atmosphere is alternatively interactive with and forced by land surface, are launched. The initial soil state largely affects summer near-surface temperatures: dry soils contribute to warm the lower atmosphere and exacerbate heat extremes, while wet terrains suppress thermal peaks, and both effects last for several months. Land-atmosphere coupling proves to be a fundamental ingredient to modulate the boundary layer state, through the partition between latent and sensible heat fluxes. In the coupled runs, early season heat waves are sustained by interactive dry soils, which respond to hot weather conditions with increased evaporative demand, resulting in longer-lasting extreme temperatures. On the other hand, when wet conditions are prescribed across the season, the occurrence of hot days is suppressed. The land surface prescribed by climatological precipitation forcing causes a temperature drop throughout the months, due to sustained evaporation of surface soil water. Results have implications for seasonal forecasts on both rain-fed and irrigated continental regions in transitional climate zones. This work has been performed in the framework of the MEDSCOPE (MEDiterranean Services Chain based On climate PrEdictions) ERA4CS project (grant agreement no. 690462) funded by the European Union. Chloe Prodhomme was supported by the Spanish Juan de la Cierva (IJCI-2016-30802) program. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 2c dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. Peer Reviewed

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    Authors: Alice Portal; Paolo Ruggieri; Froila M. Palmeiro; Javier García-Serrano; +2 Authors

    The predictability of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and its underlying dynamics are investigated in five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model database. Special attention is devoted to the connection between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and lower-stratosphere wave activity (LSWA). We find that in winter (December to February) dynamical forecasts initialised on the first of November are considerably more skilful than empirical forecasts based on October anomalies. Moreover, the coupling of the SPV with mid-latitude LSWA (i.e., meridional eddy heat flux) is generally well reproduced by the forecast systems, allowing for the identification of a robust link between the predictability of wave activity above the tropopause and the SPV skill. Our results highlight the importance of November-to-February LSWA, in particular in the Eurasian sector, for forecasts of the winter stratosphere. Finally, the role of potential sources of seasonal stratospheric predictability is considered: we find that the C3S multi-model overestimates the stratospheric response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and underestimates the influence of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Climate Dynamics, 58 (7) ISSN:1432-0894 ISSN:0930-7575

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    Climate Dynamics
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    Climate Dynamics
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    Authors: Marianna Benassi; Giovanni Conti; Silvio Gualdi; Paolo Ruggieri; +5 Authors

    Abstract El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the major driver of interannual climate variability at global scale. Observational and model-based studies have fostered a long-standing debate on the shape and intensity of the ENSO influence over the Euro-Mediterranean sector. Indeed, the detection of this signal is strongly affected by the large internal variability that characterizes the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic–European (NAE) region. This study explores if and how the low-frequency variability of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) may impact the El Niño-NAE teleconnection in late winter, which consists of a dipolar pattern between middle and high latitudes. A set of idealized atmosphere-only experiments, prescribing different phases of the anomalous SST linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) superimposed onto an El Niño-like forcing in the tropical Pacific, has been performed in a multi-model framework, in order to assess the potential modulation of the positive ENSO signal. The modelling results suggest, in agreement with observational estimates, that the PDO negative phase (PDO − ) may enhance the amplitude of the El Niño-NAE teleconnection, while the dynamics involved appear to be unaltered. On the other hand, the modulating role of the PDO positive phase (PDO + ) is not reliable across models. This finding is consistent with the atmospheric response to the PDO itself, which is robust and statistically significant only for PDO − . Its modulation seems to rely on the enhanced meridional SST gradient and the related turbulent heat-flux released along the Kuroshio–Oyashio extension. PDO − weakens the North Pacific jet, whereby favoring more poleward propagation of wave activity, strengthening the El Niño-forced Rossby wave-train. These results imply that there might be conditional predictability for the interannual Euro-Mediterranean climate variability depending on the background state. International audience

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    Authors: Chloé Prodhomme; Stefano Materia; Constantin Ardilouze; Rachel H. White; +4 Authors

    Under the influence of global warming, heatwaves are becoming a major threat in many parts of the world, affecting human health and mortality, food security, forest fires, biodiversity, energy consumption, as well as the production and transportation networks. Seasonal forecasting is a promising tool to help mitigate these impacts on society. Previous studies have highlighted some predictive capacity of seasonal forecast systems for specific strong heatwaves such as those of 2003 and 2010. To our knowledge, this study is thus the first of its kind to systematically assess the prediction skill of heatwaves over Europe in a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system. One major prerequisite to do so is to appropriately define heatwaves. Existing heatwave indices, built to measure heatwave duration and severity, are often designed for specific impacts and thus have limited robustness for an analysis of heatwave variability. In this study, we investigate the seasonal prediction skill of European summer heatwaves in the ECMWF System 5 operational forecast system by means of several dedicated metrics, as well as its added-value compared to a simple statistical model based on the linear trend. We are able to show, for the first time, that seasonal forecasts initialized in early May can provide potentially useful information of summer heatwave propensity, which is the tendency of a season to be predisposed to the occurrence of heatwaves. This work is a contribution to the HyMeX program through the project ERA4CS-MEDSCOPE, co-funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Program of the European Union (Grant agreement 690462). Chloe Prodhomme and Javier García-Serrano were supported by the Spanish Juan de la Cierva (IJCI-2016-30802) and Ramon y Cajal (RYC-2016-21181) programs, respectively. Rachel H. White received funding from the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement 797961. Peer Reviewed

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    Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
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    https://doi.org/10.5194/egusph...
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Recolector de Cienci...arrow_drop_down
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      Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
      Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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      Climate Dynamics
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      https://doi.org/10.5194/egusph...
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Juan A. Fernández-Granja; Swen Brands; Joaquín Bedia; Ana Casanueva; +1 Authors

    The Jenkinson–Collison weather typing scheme (JC-WT) is an automated method used to classify regional sea-level pressure into a reduced number of typical recurrent patterns. Originally developed for the British Isles in the early 1970’s on the basis of expert knowledge, the method since then has seen many applications. Encouraged by the premise that the JC-WT approach can in principle be applied to any mid-to-high latitude region, the present study explores its global extra-tropical applicability, including the Southern Hemisphere. To this aim, JC-WT is applied at each grid-box of a global 2.5 regular grid excluding the inner tropics (± 5º band). Thereby, 6-hourly JC-WT catalogues are obtained for 5 distinct reanalyses, covering the period 1979–2005, which are then applied to explore (1) the limits of method applicability and (2) observational uncertainties inherent to the reanalysis datasets. Using evaluation criteria, such as the diversity of occurring circulation types and the frequency of unclassified situations, we extract empirically derived applicability thresholds which suggest that JC-WT can be generally used anywhere polewards of 23.5º, with some exceptions. Seasonal fluctuations compromise this finding along the equatorward limits of the domain. Furthermore, unreliable reanalysis sea-level pressure estimates in elevated areas with complex orography (such as the Tibetan Plateau, the Andes, Greenland and Antarctica) prevent the application of the method in these regions. In some other regions, the JC-WT classifications obtained from the distinct reanalyses substantially differ from each other, which may bring additional uncertainties when the method is used in model evaluation experiments. This paper is part of the R+D+i projects CORDyS (PID2020-116595RB-I00) and ATLAS (PID2019-111481RB-I00), funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. J.A.F. has received research support from grant PRE2020-094728 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. J.B. and A.C. received research support from the project INDECIS, part of the European Research Area for Climate Services Consortium (ERA4CS) with co-funding by the European Union (grant no. 690462). Open Access funding provided thanks to the CRUE-CSIC agreement with Springer Nature. Peer reviewed

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ UCrea; Recolector de...arrow_drop_down
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    Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    DIGITAL.CSIC
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ UCrea; Recolector de...arrow_drop_down
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      Climate Dynamics
      Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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      DIGITAL.CSIC
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Joren Van Nieuwenhuyse; Bert Van Schaeybroeck; Steven Caluwaerts; Jonathan De Deyn; +4 Authors

    Estimating the impact of climate change and emission scenarios on air pollution can be done using regional climate models (RCMs). Climate uncertainties are commonly estimated using RCM ensembles such as provided by EURO-CORDEX. Despite the strong relations between the weather and air pollutants, interactions are usually complex and require meteorological parameters that are not commonly available for the RCM ensembles. Pollution peaks, however, often coincide with stagnant atmospheric conditions that can be captured with widely-available RCM data. We first show that a commonly-used atmospheric stability index that uses rainfall, near-surface and 500 hPa wind speed, relates well to average and extreme air pollutant concentrations over Europe using Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) data. We then provide an in-depth validation of 25 RCMs to reproduce the spatio-temporal features of air stagnation by comparison with ERA5. Overall the models were found to reproduce stagnant episodes fairly well, especially after bias correction. The systematic underestimation of stagnation frequency and duration is traced back to overestimated near-surface wind speed for a large group of models at high-elevation regions where the temporal correlations are also low. Regardless of the reference dataset, two model groups are identified that, independent on their resolution, give strongly different results in terms of orographic dependence of surface wind speed. These strong discrepancies underscore the need for bias correction when using RCM data for analysis of stagnation episodes.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Ghent University Aca...arrow_drop_down
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    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Springer Nature TDM
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    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Ghent University Aca...arrow_drop_down
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      image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
      Climate Dynamics
      Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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      image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Filippo Calì Quaglia; Silvia Terzago; Jost von Hardenberg;

    AbstractThis study considers a set of state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems (ECMWF, MF, UKMO, CMCC, DWD and the corresponding multi-model ensemble) and quantifies their added value (if any) in predicting seasonal and monthly temperature and precipitation anomalies over the Mediterranean region compared to a simple forecasting method based on the ERA5 climatology (CTRL) or the persistence of the ERA5 anomaly (PERS). This analysis considers two starting dates, May 1st and November 1st and the forecasts at lead times up to 6 months for each year in the period 1993–2014. Both deterministic and probabilistic metrics are employed to derive comprehensive information on the forecast quality in terms of association, reliability/resolution, discrimination, accuracy and sharpness. We find that temperature anomalies are better reproduced than precipitation anomalies with varying spatial patterns across different forecast systems. The Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) shows the best agreement in terms of anomaly correlation with ERA5 precipitation, while PERS provides the best results in terms of anomaly correlation with ERA5 temperature. Individual forecast systems and MME outperform CTRL in terms of accuracy of tercile-based forecasts up to lead time 5 months and in terms of discrimination up to lead time 2 months. All seasonal forecast systems also outperform elementary forecasts based on persistence in terms of accuracy and sharpness.

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    Climate Dynamics
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    Authors: Albert Ossó; Richard P. Allan; Ed Hawkins; Len Shaffrey; +1 Authors

    AbstractHuman society and natural systems are intrinsically adapted to the local climate mean and variability. Therefore, changes relative to the local expected variability are highly relevant for assessing impact and planning for adaptation as the climate changes. We analyse the emerging climate signal relative to the diagnosed internal variability (signal-to-noise ratio, S/N) of a set of recently published climate indices over Europe. We calculate the signal-to-noise ratio with respect to a recent baseline (1951–1983) which relates to recent societal experience. In this framework, we find that during the 2000–2016 period, many areas of Europe already experienced significant changes in climate extremes, even when compared to this recent period which is within living memory. In particular, the S/N of extreme temperatures is larger than 1 and 2 over 34% and 4% of Europe, respectively. We also find that about 15% of Europe is experiencing more intense winter precipitation events, while in summer, 7% of Europe is experiencing stronger drought-inducing conditions.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Climate Dynamicsarrow_drop_down
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    Climate Dynamics
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    Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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      Climate Dynamics
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      Climate Dynamics
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    Authors: Soulivanh Thao; Mats Garvik; Gregoire Mariethoz; Mathieu Vrac;

    Abstract Global Climate Models are the main tools for climate projections. Since many models exist, it is common to use Multi-Model Ensembles to reduce biases and assess uncertainties in climate projections. Several approaches have been proposed to combine individual models and extract a robust signal from an ensemble. Among them, the Multi-Model Mean (MMM) is the most commonly used. Based on the assumption that the models are centered around the truth, it consists in averaging the ensemble, with the possibility of using equal weights for all models or to adjust weights to favor some models. In this paper, we propose a new alternative to reconstruct multi-decadal means of climate variables from a Multi-Model Ensemble, where the local performance of the models is taken into account. This is in contrast with MMM where a model has the same weight for all locations. Our approach is based on a computer vision method called graph cuts and consists in selecting for each grid point the most appropriate model, while at the same time considering the overall spatial consistency of the resulting field. The performance of the graph cuts approach is assessed based on two experiments: one where the ERA5 reanalyses are considered as the reference, and another involving a perfect model experiment where each model is in turn considered as the reference. We show that the graph cuts approach generally results in lower biases than other model combination approaches such as MMM, while at the same time preserving a similar level of spatial continuity. International audience

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Serveur académique l...arrow_drop_down
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    Serveur académique lausannois
    Article . 2022
    License: CC BY
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    https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3....
    Preprint . 2021
    License: CC BY
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    Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2021
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      Serveur académique lausannois
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      https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3....
      Preprint . 2021
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      Climate Dynamics
      Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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      Climate Dynamics
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    Authors: Bianca Mezzina; Froila M. Palmeiro; Javier García-Serrano; Ileana Bladé; +2 Authors

    The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the late-winter extra-tropical stratosphere (January–March) is assessed in a multi-model framework. Three state-of-the-art atmospheric models are run with prescribed SST anomalies representative of a strong ENSO event, with symmetric patterns for El Niño and La Niña. The well-known temperature perturbation in the lower stratosphere during El Niño is captured by two models, in which the anomalous warming at polar latitudes is accompanied by a positive geopotential height anomaly that extends over the polar cap. In the third model, which shows a lack of temperature anomalies over the pole, the anomalous anticyclone is confined over Canada and does not expand to the polar cap. This anomalous center of action emerges from the large-scale tropospheric Rossby wave train forced by ENSO, and shrinking/stretching around the polar vortex is invoked to link it to the temperature response. No disagreement across models is found in the lower stratosphere for La Niña, whose teleconnection is opposite in sign but weaker. In the middle-upper stratosphere (above 50 hPa) the geopotential height anomalies project on a wavenumber-1 (WN1) pattern for both El Niño and, more weakly, La Niña, and show a westward tilt with height up to the stratopause. It is suggested that this WN1 pattern arises from the high-latitude lower-stratospheric anomalies, and that the ENSO teleconnection to the polar stratosphere can be interpreted in terms of upward propagation of the stationary Rossby wave train and quasi-geostrophic balance, instead of wave breaking. This work was supported by the MEDSCOPE project. MEDSCOPE is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by AEMET (ES), ANR (FR), BSC (ES), CMCC (IT), CNR (IT), IMR (BE) and Météo-France (FR), with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). B.M. and J.G.-S. were supported by the “Contratos Predoctorales para la Formación de Doctores” (BES-2016-076431) and “Ramón y Cajal” (RYC-2016-21181) programmes, respectively. F.M.P. was partially supported by the Spanish DANAE (CGL2015-68342-R) and GRAVITOCAST (ERC2018-092835) projects. Technical support at BSC (Computational Earth Sciences group) is sincerely acknowledged. We also thank the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful feedback. Peer Reviewed

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    Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
    Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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      Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
      Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Stefano Materia; Constantin Ardilouze; Chloé Prodhomme; Markus G. Donat; +6 Authors

    Land surface and atmosphere are interlocked by the hydrological and energy cycles and the effects of soil water-air coupling can modulate near-surface temperatures. In this work, three paired experiments were designed to evaluate impacts of different soil moisture initial and boundary conditions on summer temperatures in the Mediterranean transitional climate regime region. In this area, evapotranspiration is not limited by solar radiation, rather by soil moisture, which therefore controls the boundary layer variability. Extremely dry, extremely wet and averagely humid ground conditions are imposed to two global climate models at the beginning of the warm and dry season. Then, sensitivity experiments, where atmosphere is alternatively interactive with and forced by land surface, are launched. The initial soil state largely affects summer near-surface temperatures: dry soils contribute to warm the lower atmosphere and exacerbate heat extremes, while wet terrains suppress thermal peaks, and both effects last for several months. Land-atmosphere coupling proves to be a fundamental ingredient to modulate the boundary layer state, through the partition between latent and sensible heat fluxes. In the coupled runs, early season heat waves are sustained by interactive dry soils, which respond to hot weather conditions with increased evaporative demand, resulting in longer-lasting extreme temperatures. On the other hand, when wet conditions are prescribed across the season, the occurrence of hot days is suppressed. The land surface prescribed by climatological precipitation forcing causes a temperature drop throughout the months, due to sustained evaporation of surface soil water. Results have implications for seasonal forecasts on both rain-fed and irrigated continental regions in transitional climate zones. This work has been performed in the framework of the MEDSCOPE (MEDiterranean Services Chain based On climate PrEdictions) ERA4CS project (grant agreement no. 690462) funded by the European Union. Chloe Prodhomme was supported by the Spanish Juan de la Cierva (IJCI-2016-30802) program. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 2c dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. Peer Reviewed

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    Climate Dynamics
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    Authors: Alice Portal; Paolo Ruggieri; Froila M. Palmeiro; Javier García-Serrano; +2 Authors

    The predictability of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and its underlying dynamics are investigated in five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model database. Special attention is devoted to the connection between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and lower-stratosphere wave activity (LSWA). We find that in winter (December to February) dynamical forecasts initialised on the first of November are considerably more skilful than empirical forecasts based on October anomalies. Moreover, the coupling of the SPV with mid-latitude LSWA (i.e., meridional eddy heat flux) is generally well reproduced by the forecast systems, allowing for the identification of a robust link between the predictability of wave activity above the tropopause and the SPV skill. Our results highlight the importance of November-to-February LSWA, in particular in the Eurasian sector, for forecasts of the winter stratosphere. Finally, the role of potential sources of seasonal stratospheric predictability is considered: we find that the C3S multi-model overestimates the stratospheric response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and underestimates the influence of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Climate Dynamics, 58 (7) ISSN:1432-0894 ISSN:0930-7575

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    Research Collection
    Article . 2022
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    Climate Dynamics
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    Climate Dynamics
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    Authors: Marianna Benassi; Giovanni Conti; Silvio Gualdi; Paolo Ruggieri; +5 Authors

    Abstract El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the major driver of interannual climate variability at global scale. Observational and model-based studies have fostered a long-standing debate on the shape and intensity of the ENSO influence over the Euro-Mediterranean sector. Indeed, the detection of this signal is strongly affected by the large internal variability that characterizes the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic–European (NAE) region. This study explores if and how the low-frequency variability of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) may impact the El Niño-NAE teleconnection in late winter, which consists of a dipolar pattern between middle and high latitudes. A set of idealized atmosphere-only experiments, prescribing different phases of the anomalous SST linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) superimposed onto an El Niño-like forcing in the tropical Pacific, has been performed in a multi-model framework, in order to assess the potential modulation of the positive ENSO signal. The modelling results suggest, in agreement with observational estimates, that the PDO negative phase (PDO − ) may enhance the amplitude of the El Niño-NAE teleconnection, while the dynamics involved appear to be unaltered. On the other hand, the modulating role of the PDO positive phase (PDO + ) is not reliable across models. This finding is consistent with the atmospheric response to the PDO itself, which is robust and statistically significant only for PDO − . Its modulation seems to rely on the enhanced meridional SST gradient and the related turbulent heat-flux released along the Kuroshio–Oyashio extension. PDO − weakens the North Pacific jet, whereby favoring more poleward propagation of wave activity, strengthening the El Niño-forced Rossby wave-train. These results imply that there might be conditional predictability for the interannual Euro-Mediterranean climate variability depending on the background state. International audience

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    Authors: Chloé Prodhomme; Stefano Materia; Constantin Ardilouze; Rachel H. White; +4 Authors

    Under the influence of global warming, heatwaves are becoming a major threat in many parts of the world, affecting human health and mortality, food security, forest fires, biodiversity, energy consumption, as well as the production and transportation networks. Seasonal forecasting is a promising tool to help mitigate these impacts on society. Previous studies have highlighted some predictive capacity of seasonal forecast systems for specific strong heatwaves such as those of 2003 and 2010. To our knowledge, this study is thus the first of its kind to systematically assess the prediction skill of heatwaves over Europe in a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system. One major prerequisite to do so is to appropriately define heatwaves. Existing heatwave indices, built to measure heatwave duration and severity, are often designed for specific impacts and thus have limited robustness for an analysis of heatwave variability. In this study, we investigate the seasonal prediction skill of European summer heatwaves in the ECMWF System 5 operational forecast system by means of several dedicated metrics, as well as its added-value compared to a simple statistical model based on the linear trend. We are able to show, for the first time, that seasonal forecasts initialized in early May can provide potentially useful information of summer heatwave propensity, which is the tendency of a season to be predisposed to the occurrence of heatwaves. This work is a contribution to the HyMeX program through the project ERA4CS-MEDSCOPE, co-funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Program of the European Union (Grant agreement 690462). Chloe Prodhomme and Javier García-Serrano were supported by the Spanish Juan de la Cierva (IJCI-2016-30802) and Ramon y Cajal (RYC-2016-21181) programs, respectively. Rachel H. White received funding from the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement 797961. Peer Reviewed

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    Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
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    https://doi.org/10.5194/egusph...
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Recolector de Cienci...arrow_drop_down
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      https://doi.org/10.5194/egusph...
      Other literature type . 2021
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      This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.

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