AbstractThis study considers a set of state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems (ECMWF, MF, UKMO, CMCC, DWD and the corresponding multi-model ensemble) and quantifies their added value (if any) in predicting seasonal and monthly temperature and precipitation anomali...

AbstractHuman society and natural systems are intrinsically adapted to the local climate mean and variability. Therefore, changes relative to the local expected variability are highly relevant for assessing impact and planning for adaptation as the climate changes. We a...

The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the late-winter extra-tropical stratosphere (January–March) is assessed in a multi-model framework. Three state-of-the-art atmospheric models are run with prescribed SST anomalies representative of a strong ENSO event...

Under the influence of global warming, heatwaves are becoming a major threat in many parts of the world, affecting human health and mortality, food security, forest fires, biodiversity, energy consumption, as well as the production and transportation networks. Seasonal ...

Land surface and atmosphere are interlocked by the hydrological and energy cycles and the effects of soil water-air coupling can modulate near-surface temperatures. In this work, three paired experiments were designed to evaluate impacts of different soil moisture initi...

AbstractThe predictability of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and its underlying dynamics are investigated in five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model database. Special attention is devoted to th...

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the major driver of interannual climate variability at global scale. Observational and model-based studies have fostered a long-standing debate on the shape and intensity of the ENSO influence over the Euro-Mediterranean se...

ABSTRACT: Global Climate Models (GCMs) generally exhibit significant biases in the representation of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Even after a sensible bias adjustment these errors remain and are inherited to some extent by the derived downscaling products, impa...

Orography is known to affect local meteorological conditions by inducing orographic rainfall and a rain shadow i.e. reduced rainfall on the mountain’s leeside with respect to the windward side. Therefore it has a strong effect on the local population and agriculture. Re...

The intimate link between soil moisture and precipitation makes it a “chicken-and-egg situation” that challenges climate studies of the continental water cycle. This association is particularly acute over the Mediterranean, increasingly exposed to droughts with climate ...