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ABSTRACT: Climate change will impact renewable resources and electricity demand, usually not jointly considered when designing future decarbonized power systems. This paper assesses how sensitive the Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector is to climate change by 2050 and what are the implications for the formally approved Portuguese Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. The future capacity factors for wind, solar and hydropower and electricity demand response to temperature are estimated for 22 climate projections along the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5. The eTIMES_PT optimization model is used to assess its combined impact on the cost-optimal configuration of the power sector by 2050. Results show that climate change lowers hydropower generation by 20% (in median terms). Improving spatial and temporal resolution and including future climate patterns, results also in lower cost-effectiveness of solar photovoltaic vis-a-vis the Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. While future climate does not impact onshore wind production, offshore wind power generation is positively affected, being a climate-resilient carbon-neutral option for Portugal. Annual electricity unitary costs at final users (excluding taxes and levies) only increase up to 4% with climate change, but seasonal costs have higher variability. This analysis highlights that climate change affects the cost-optimal annual carbon-neutral power sector and needs to be included in energy planning. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

European small-scale fisheries are confronted with several challenges, notably a decrease in the number of people engaged in capture fishing, growing competition from less expensive extra-EU markets, rising operational costs, strict regulations and the depletion of fishing stocks. Many small-scale fishers must adapt to change to maintain or increase their income using different business strategies. In this respect, we argue that new and diversified institutional arrangements combined with building social capital can help reach long-term economic sustainability for small-scale fisheries businesses, as well as the social-ecological resilience of coastal areas. In order to understand and analyse the multiplicity of strategies applied by small-scale fishers – including expansion towards non–productivist activities – this paper examines the role of new institutional arrangements based on small-scale, traditional, quality-orientated, multifunctional business strategies, as well as non-fishing activities. Using a case study approach, we analyse – in three different European fishery contexts (Greece, Italy, and the UK respectively) – how the interplay between building adaptive arrangements and the creation of social capital in selected small-scale fisheries provides relevant prerequisites for resilience. International audience

Cereal-legume intercropping is known to improve the sustainability of crop production. However, it remains uncommon on commercial farms in Europe due to a number of socio-technical lock-ins and the many practical issues raised when integrating intercrops in cropping systems (e.g. which species, cultivars, sowing densities). Crop modelling is an option to explore integration scenarios and support farmers' decisions. However, available crop models are not able to simulate bundles of ecosystem services provided by a large diversity of binary cereallegume intercropping scenarios. To address this challenge, we developed a hybrid modelling chain that combines process-based, statistical and knowledge-based models to benefit from the strengths of these three different modelling approaches. The chain (i) simulates potential biomass of the sole cereal and legume crops independently using the crop model STICS; (ii) uses statistical interaction models built in R to convert potential biomass in sole cropping into attainable biomass in intercropping by considering competition effects among species, using a field trial database; (iii) converts attainable biomass into actual biomass by considering pest damage using a knowledge-based multi-attribute DEXi model, and also assesses control of pests (i.e. weeds, insects and diseases); and (iv) uses another set of multi-attribute models to assess five additional ecosystem services (i.e. cereal and legume grain yields, cereal protein content, nitrogen supply to the following crop and impact on soil structure) from the actual biomass of the intercrop at harvest and/or cropping system features. The chain was calibrated for grain cereal-legume intercrops sown simultaneously in a random pattern under low-input French conditions. We used an expert-based approach to assess the performances of each model and evaluate the accuracy of the entire modelling chain. In 18 simulated scenarios, 79% of the predicted levels of ecosystem services were consistent with experts' opinion. Predictions were more accurate for intercropping scenarios that included species from the trial database used to build linear interaction models (relative RMSE of 27-31%) but remained satisfactory for other intercropped species (relative RMSE of 32-37%). This is the first modelling chain able to assess bundles of ecosystem services provided by multiple cereal-legume intercrops in function of their cropping system contexts. This chain is intended to be included in an educational tool that is used face to face with farmers or students to design cropping systems that include intercrops. International audience

To identify whether EU certified food – here organic and geographical indications – is more sustainable than a conventional reference, we developed 25 indicators covering the three sustainability pillars. Original data was collected on 52 products at farm, processing and retail levels, allowing the estimation of circa 2000 indicator values. Most strikingly, we show that, in our sample, certified food outperforms its non-certified reference on most economic and social indicators. On major environmental indicators – carbon and water footprint – their performance is similar. Although certified food is 61% more expensive, the extra-performance per euro is similar to classical policy interventions to improve diet sustainability such as subsidies or taxes. Cumulatively, our findings legitimate the recent initiatives by standards to cover broader sustainability aspects. International audience

We study green specialization across EU countries and detailed 4-digit industrial sectors over the period of 1995-2015 by harmonizing product-level data (PRODCOM). We propose a new list of green goods that refines lists proposed by international organizations by excluding goods with double usages. Our exploratory analysis reveals important structural properties of green specialization. First, green production is highly concentrated, with 13 out of 119 4-digit industries accounting for 95% of the total. Second, green and polluting productions do not occur in the same sectors, and countries tend to specialize in either green or brown sectors. This suggests that the distributional effect of European environmental policies can be large. Third, green specialization is highlypath dependent, but it is also reinforced by the presence of non-green capabilities within the same sector. This helps explain why economies with better engineering and technical capabilities have built a comparative advantage in green production.

Our paper emphasizes the importance of the kitchen layout in facilitating consumers' food hygiene practices. A significant correlation was found between the sink placement (inside or outside the kitchen) and hygienic practices during food handling based on a survey performed on consumers from ten European countries, indicating that those who had the sink in the kitchen were more likely to perform proper hygiene practices than those who have not. The self-reported practices were supported by observed practices in 64 households from five European countries. The observational study combined with the examination of kitchen layouts revealed that the kitchen work triangle with its apexes represented by the kitchen sink, cooking stove and refrigerator, which is recommended for ergonomic reasons by architects and designers, did not necessarily support food hygiene practices in kitchens. Cross-contamination events were associated with the sink – countertop distances longer than 1 m. Based on this, a new kitchen triangle with its apexes represented by the kitchen sink, working place (usually countertop) and cooking stove, with the distance between the sink and the working place less than 1 m is proposed to be used as norm in kitchen designs for combining ergonomics with safety. This triangle is proposedly named the food safety triangle and is aimed to mitigate the risks of foodborne illnesses by creating an arrangement that facilitates hygiene practices. This study is the first to highlight the importance of implementing the concept of food safety in the kitchen design based on significant correlations between kitchen equipment placement and consumers’ food safety practices. Highlights • Sink placement in kitchens correlates with self-reported food handling practices. • Sink placement is also correlated with observed cross-contamination events. • Kitchen layouts based on the work triangle do not support food hygiene practices. • A new triangle named food safety triangle is suggested for kitchens' organisation. • Sink – countertop distances ≤1 m favour consumers' food hygiene practices. Graphical abstract Image 1

Analyzing the impact of climate variables into the operational planning processes is essential for the robust implementation of a sustainable power system. This paper deals with the modeling of the run-of-river hydropower production based on climate variables on the European scale. A better understanding of future run-of-river generation patterns has important implications for power systems with increasing shares of solar and wind power. Run-of-river plants are less intermittent than solar or wind but also less dispatchable than dams with storage capacity. However, translating time series of climate data (precipitation and air temperature) into time series of run-of-river-based hydropower generation is not an easy task as it is necessary to capture the complex relationship between the availability of water and the generation of electricity. This task is also more complex when performed for a large interconnected area. In this work, a model is built for several European countries by using machine learning techniques. In particular, we compare the accuracy of models based on the Random Forest algorithm and show that a more accurate model is obtained when a finer spatial resolution of climate data is introduced. We then discuss the practical applicability of a machine learning model for the medium term forecasts and show that some very context specific but influential events are hard to capture. International audience