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One of the most fundamental questions in ecology is how many species inhabit the Earth. However, due to massive logistical and financial challenges and taxonomic difficulties connected to the species concept definition, the global numbers of species, including those of important and well-studied life forms such as trees, still remain largely unknown. Here, based on global ground-sourced data, we estimate the total tree species richness at global, continental, and biome levels. Our results indicate that there are ∼73,000 tree species globally, among which ∼9,000 tree species are yet to be discovered. Roughly 40% of undiscovered tree species are in South America. Moreover, almost one-third of all tree species to be discovered may be rare, with very low populations and limited spatial distribution (likely in remote tropical lowlands and mountains). These findings highlight the vulnerability of global forest biodiversity to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate, which disproportionately threaten rare species and thus, global tree richness. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119 (6) ISSN:1091-6490 ISSN:0027-8424

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends Financial support was provided by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research through ISI-MIP (Grant01LS1201A1), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program (Grant 678193), and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G). We acknowledge additional financial support as follows: to H.K.L., W.W.L.C., and B.W. from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada; to D.P.T. from the Kanne Rasmussen Foundation Denmark; to A.B.-B. from the NSERC Transatlantic Ocean Science and Technology Program; to W.W.L.C. and T.D.E. from the Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program; to E.D.G., M.C. and J. Steenbeek from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Re-search and Innovation Program (Grants 682602 and 689518); to E.A.F., J.L.B., andT.R. from Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization and the Australian Research Council; to N.B., L.B., and O.M. from the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche and Pôle de Calcul et de Données pour la Mer; and to S.J. from the UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 6 pages, 5 figures, supporting information https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900194116.-- All data reported in this paper are archived and publicly available at http://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/pik/showshort.php?id=escidoc:2956913. Peer Reviewed

Rapid economic development in the past century has translated into severe pressures on species survival as a result of increasing land-use change, environmental pollution, and the spread of invasive alien species. However, though the impact of these pressures on biodiversity is substantial, it could be seriously underestimated if population declines of plants and animals lag behind contemporary environmental degradation. Here, we test for such a delay in impact by relating numbers of threatened species appearing on national red lists to historical and contemporary levels of socioeconomic pressures. Across 22 European countries, the proportions of vascular plants, bryophytes, mammals, reptiles, dragonflies, and grasshoppers facing medium-to-high extinction risks are more closely matched to indicators of socioeconomic pressures (i.e., human population density, per capita gross domestic product, and a measure of land use intensity) from the early or mid-, rather than the late, 20th century. We conclude that, irrespective of recent conservation actions, large-scale risks to biodiversity lag considerably behind contemporary levels of socioeconomic pressures. The negative impact of human activities on current biodiversity will not become fully realized until several decades into the future. Mitigating extinction risks might be an even greater challenge if temporal delays mean many threatened species might already be destined toward extinction.