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The competitive MSP of end-products and the GHG savings as compared to conventional endproducts and OFMSW management practices demonstrate the high potential of OFMSW-based biorefinery development.

Rapid population growth along with increased rates of economic growth around the globe are placing valuable natural resources, water in particular, under unprecedented stress; this in turn drives the pursuit of innovative tools to support integrated Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus management. This paper presents a framework for the integrated management of the WEF nexus, which brings together four separate models that address the less well-examined socio-anthropological aspects of the nexus. The proposed framework provides insight into the human element as part of the wider ecosystem in terms of socio-cultural and economic activities, the laws and policies that govern these activities, as well as their potential socio-economic impacts and consequences. This paper outlines each individual model, before going on to present a conceptual framework for the integration of the various models for the purpose of supporting more robust decision-making. The framework, which is grounded in systems thinking, adopts the principles of sustainable development as structural foci in order to position the various models in relation to one another; harmonizing their inputs as well as outputs.

One of the most fundamental questions in ecology is how many species inhabit the Earth. However, due to massive logistical and financial challenges and taxonomic difficulties connected to the species concept definition, the global numbers of species, including those of important and well-studied life forms such as trees, still remain largely unknown. Here, based on global ground-sourced data, we estimate the total tree species richness at global, continental, and biome levels. Our results indicate that there are ∼73,000 tree species globally, among which ∼9,000 tree species are yet to be discovered. Roughly 40% of undiscovered tree species are in South America. Moreover, almost one-third of all tree species to be discovered may be rare, with very low populations and limited spatial distribution (likely in remote tropical lowlands and mountains). These findings highlight the vulnerability of global forest biodiversity to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate, which disproportionately threaten rare species and thus, global tree richness. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119 (6) ISSN:1091-6490 ISSN:0027-8424

International audience; A multi-fidelity (MF) active learning method is presented for design optimization problems characterized by noisy evaluations of the performance metrics. Namely, a generalized MF surrogate model is used for design-space exploration, exploiting an arbitrary number of hierarchical fidelity levels, i.e., performance evaluations coming from different models, solvers, or discretizations, characterized by different accuracy. The method is intended to accurately predict the design performance while reducing the computational effort required by simulation-driven design (SDD) to achieve the global optimum. The overall MF prediction is evaluated as a low-fidelity trained surrogate corrected with the surrogates of the errors between consecutive fidelity levels. Surrogates are based on stochastic radial basis functions (SRBF) with least squares regression and in-the-loop optimization of hyperparameters to deal with noisy training data. The method adaptively queries new training data, selecting both the design points and the required fidelity level via an active learning approach. This is based on the lower confidence bounding method, which combines the performance prediction and the associated uncertainty to select the most promising design regions. The fidelity levels are selected considering the benefit-cost ratio associated with their use in the training. The method’s performance is assessed and discussed using four analytical tests and three SDD problems based on computational fluid dynamics simulations, namely the shape optimization of a NACA hydrofoil, the DTMB 5415 destroyer, and a roll-on/roll-off passenger ferry. Fidelity levels are provided by both adaptive grid refinement and multi-grid resolution approaches. Under the assumption of a limited budget for function evaluations, the proposed MF method shows better performance in comparison with the model trained by high-fidelity evaluations only.

Abstract. A comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources of the West Africa Volta River basin is conducted in this study, as the region is expected to be hardest hit by global warming. A large ensemble of twelve general circulation models (GCM) from CMIP5 that are dynamically downscaled by five regional climate models (RCM) from CORDEX-Africa is used. In total, 43 RCM-GCM combinations are considered under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The reliability of each of the climate datasets is first evaluated with satellite and reanalysis reference datasets. Subsequently, the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) multivariate bias correction method is applied to the climate datasets. The corrected simulations are then used as input to the fully distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) for hydrological projections over the twenty-first century (1991–2100). Results reveal contrasting changes in the seasonality of rainfall depending on the selected greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the future projection periods. Although air temperature and potential evaporation increase under all RCPs, an increase in the magnitude of all hydrological variables (actual evaporation, total runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture and terrestrial water storage) is only projected under RCP8.5. High and low flow analysis suggests an increased flood risk under RCP8.5, particularly in the Black Volta, while hydrological droughts would be recurrent under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, particularly in the White Volta. Disparities are observed in the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables across climatic zones, with higher warming in the Sahelian zone. Therefore, climate change would have severe implications for future water availability with concerns for rain-fed agriculture, thereby weakening the water-energy-food security nexus and amplifying the vulnerability of the local population. The variability between climate models highlights uncertainties in the projections and indicates a need to better represent complex climate features in regional models. These findings could serve as a guideline for both the scientific community to improve climate change projections and for decision makers to elaborate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change and strengthen regional socio-economic development.

Cold-water coral (CWC) habitats dwell on continental shelves, slopes, seamounts, and ridge systems around the world’s oceans from 50 to 4000 m depth, providing heterogeneous habitats which support a myriad of associated fauna. These highly diverse ecosystems are threatened by human stressors such as fishing activities, gas and oil exploitation, and climate change. Since their life-history traits such as long lifespan and slow growth rates make CWCs very vulnerable to potential threats, it is a foremost challenge to explore the viability of restoration actions to enhance and speed up their recovery. In contrast to terrestrial and shallow-water marine ecosystems, ecological restoration in deep marine environments has received minimal attention. This review, by means of a systematic literature search, aims to identify CWC restoration challenges, assess the most suitable techniques to restore them, and discuss future perspectives. Outcomes from the few restoration actions performed to date on CWCs, which have lasted between 1 to 4 years, provide evidence of the feasibility of coral transplantation and artificial reef deployments. Scientific efforts should focus on testing novel and creative restoration techniques, especially to scale up to the spatial and temporal scales of impacts. There is still a general lack of knowledge about the biological, ecological and habitat characteristics of CWC species exploration of which would aid the development of effective restoration measures. To ensure the long-term viability and success of any restoration action it is essential to include holistic and long-term monitoring programs, and to ideally combine active restoration with natural spontaneous regeneration (i.e., passive restoration) strategies such as the implementation of deep-sea marine protected areas (MPAs). We conclude that a combination of passive and active restoration approaches with involvement of local society would be the best optimal option to achieve and ensure CWC restoration success MM was funded by a FPU 2014 research grant (FPU2014_06977) from the Spanish government (Spain). AGr received funding from a Juan de la Cierva 2015 research grant (IJCI-2015-23962) from the Spanish government. CL gratefully acknowledges the financial support by ICREA under the ICREA Academia program. This study was supported by the SHELFRECOVER project funded by the Fundación BBVA and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under grant agreements nos. 689518 (MERCES) and 678760 (ATLAS) 21 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, supplementary material https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.621151/full#supplementary-material With the institutional support of the ‘Severo OchoaCentre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) Peer reviewed