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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Miguel‐Berges, María L.; Mouratidou, Theodora; Santaliestra‐Pasias, Alba; Androutsos, Odysseas; +9 Authors

    SummaryBackgroundLifestyle behaviours related to diet and physical activity are associated with increased risk of obesity and evidence suggests that associations might be stronger when a synergetic effect is examined.ObjectiveTo examine the cross‐sectional and longitudinal associations between diet, screen time (ST) and step recommendations and risk of overweight and obesity in European preschoolers participating in the ToyBox‐study.MethodsIn this cluster‐randomized clinical trial, 718 children (51.4% boys) from six European countries participated. Parents filled out questionnaires with information on socio‐demographic status, step recommendations and ST.ResultsLongitudinal results indicate that participants having a low Diet Quality Index (DQI), not meeting ST and step recommendations at T0 and T1 had higher odds of having overweight/obesity at T1 (odds ratio [OR] = 1.116; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.104–2.562) than those children having a high DQI and meeting ST and step recommendations at T0 and T1. Similarly, participants having a high DQI, but not meeting ST and step recommendations at T0 and T1 had increased odds of having overweight/obesity (OR = 2.515; 95% CI = 1.171–3.021).ConclusionsThe proportion of participants having a low DQI, not adhering to both step and ST recommendations was very high, and it was associated with a higher probability of having overweight and obesity.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Ghent University Aca...arrow_drop_down
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    Pediatric Obesity
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY NC ND
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Ghent University Aca...arrow_drop_down
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      Pediatric Obesity
      Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Paolo Annicchiarico; Abco J. de Buck; Dimitrios N. Vlachostergios; Dennis Heupink; +3 Authors

    White lupin is a promising high-protein crop, the cultivation of which is limited by a lack of adaptation to soils that are even just mildly calcareous. This study aimed to assess the phenotypic variation, the trait architecture based on a GWAS, and the predictive ability of genome-enabled models for grain yield and contributing traits of a genetically-broad population of 140 lines grown in an autumn-sown environment of Greece (Larissa) and a spring-sown environment of the Netherlands (Ens) that featured moderately calcareous and alkaline soils. We found large genotype × environment interaction and modest or nil genetic correlation for line responses across locations for grain yield, a lime susceptibility score, and other traits, with the exception of individual seed weight and plant height. The GWAS identified significant SNP markers associated with various traits that were markedly inconsistent across locations, while providing direct or indirect evidence for widespread polygenic trait control. Genomic selection proved to be a feasible strategy, owing to a moderate predictive ability for yield and lime susceptibility in Larissa (the site featuring greater lime soil stress). Other supporting results for breeding programs where the identification of a candidate gene for lime tolerance and the high reliability of genome-enabled predictions for individual seed weight.

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    Plants
    Other literature type . Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
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    Plants
    Article . 2023
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    Plants
    Article . 2023
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      Plants
      Other literature type . Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY
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      Plants
      Article . 2023
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      Plants
      Article . 2023
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    Authors: Vanya Stoycheva; Davide Geneletti;

    There is a high growing demand for regulating ecosystem services such as air quality regulation, regulation of air temperature and humidity, and flood regulation, in urban ecosystems which is important for urban planning. A comprehensive review of the current studies of the urban ecosystem, regulating ecosystem services, and their connection with urban planning actions is needed. The current paper presents such a review conducted in six stages to evaluate the state-of-the-art of regulating ecosystem services and their relationship with urban planning. It includes 58 papers selected after a precise keywords search and developed by publication screening, defining indicators, developing an assessment template, and meta-analysis of the results. The analyses are focused on spatial data used in the studies, the methods applied for ecosystem services assessment, and the relationships between regulating ecosystem services, urban planning, and green infrastructure. The most studied regulating ecosystem services within reviewed publications are regulation of chemical composition of atmosphere and oceans, regulation of temperature and humidity, including ventilation and transpiration, and hydrological cycle and water flow regulation (including flood control, and coastal protection). Although urban planning-related papers are only 1/3 of the pool of papers, appropriate results have been obtained for assessing the urban planning-regulating ecosystem services relation. The review also identified some significant knowledge gaps that can be used as a starting point for future studies.

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    Authors: Roberto Martínez-Beamonte; Roberto Martínez-Beamonte; Roberto Martínez-Beamonte; Marina Ripalda; +23 Authors

    IntroductionPulsed electric field (PEF) has been used for improving extraction of extra virgin olive oil (EVOO). However, the biological changes induced by the consumption of pulsed electric field-obtained extra virgin olive oil (PEFEVOO) have not been studied yet.Materials and methodsEVOO oils from Empeltre variety were prepared by standard (STD) cold pressure method involving crushing of the olives, malaxation and decanting and by this procedure including an additional step of PEF treatment. Chemical analyses of EVOO oils were done. Male and female Apoe-deficient mice received diets differing in both EVOOs for 12 weeks, and their plasma, aortas and livers were analyzed.ResultsPEF application resulted in a 17% increase in the oil yield and minimal changes in chemical composition regarding phytosterols, phenolic compounds and microRNA. Only in females mice consuming PEF EVOO, a decreased plasma total cholesterol was observed, without significant changes in atherosclerosis and liver steatosis.ConclusionPEF technology applied to EVOO extraction maintains the EVOO quality and improves the oil yield. The equivalent biological effects in atherosclerosis and fatty liver disease of PEF-obtained EVOO further support its safe use as a food.

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    Frontiers in Nutrition
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    Frontiers in Nutrition
    Article . 2022
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      Frontiers in Nutrition
      Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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      Frontiers in Nutrition
      Article . 2022
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    Authors: Amanda T. Lombard; Jai Clifford-Holmes; Victoria Goodall; Bernadette Snow; +17 Authors

    AbstractWith a focus on oceans, we collaborated across ecological, social and legal disciplines to respond to the United Nations call for transformation in the ‘2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’. We developed a set of 13 principles that strategically and critically connect transformative ocean research to transformative ocean governance (complementing the UN Decade for Ocean Science). We used a rigorous, iterative and transparent consensus-building approach to define the principles, which can interact in supporting, neutral or sometimes conflicting ways. We recommend that the principles could be applied as a comprehensive set and discuss how to learn from their interactions, particularly those that reveal hidden tensions. The principles can bring and keep together partnerships for innovative ocean action. This action must respond to the many calls to reform current ocean-use practices which are based on economic growth models that have perpetuated inequities and fuelled conflict and environmental decline.

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    Nature Sustainability
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3....
    Preprint . 2022
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    UCL Discovery
    Article . 2023
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      Nature Sustainability
      Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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      https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3....
      Preprint . 2022
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      UCL Discovery
      Article . 2023
      Data sources: UCL Discovery
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    Authors: Arnaud Guyennon; Björn Reineking; Roberto Salguero‐Gomez; Jonas Dahlgren; +5 Authors

    AbstractAimLinking local population dynamics and species distributions is crucial to predicting the impacts of climate change. Although many studies focus on the mean fitness of populations, theory shows that species distributions can be shaped by demographic stochasticity or population resilience. Here, we examine how mean fitness (measured by invasion rate), demographic stochasticity and resilience (measured by the ability to recover from disturbance) constrain populations at the edges compared with the climatic centre.LocationEurope: Spain, France, Germany, Finland and Sweden.PeriodForest inventory data used for fitting the models cover the period from 1985 to 2013.Major taxaDominant European tree species; angiosperms and gymnosperms.MethodsWe developed dynamic population models covering the entire life cycle of 25 European tree species with climatically dependent recruitment models fitted to forest inventory data. We then ran simulations using integral projection and individual‐based models to test how invasion rates, risk of stochastic extinction and ability to recover from stochastic disturbances differ between the centre and edges of the climatic niches of species.ResultsResults varied among species, but in general, demographic constraints were stronger at warm edges and for species in harsher climates. Conversely, recovery was more limiting at cold edges. In addition, we found that for several species, constraints at the edges were attributable to demographic stochasticity and capacity for recovery rather than mean fitness.Main conclusionsOur results highlight that mean fitness is not the only mechanism at play at the edges; demographic stochasticity and population capacity to recover also matter for European tree species. To understand how climate change will drive species range shifts, future studies will need to analyse the interplay between population mean growth rate and stochastic demographic processes in addition to disturbances.

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    Global Ecology and Biogeography
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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      Global Ecology and Biogeography
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    Authors: Sophie Mentzel; Merete Grung; Roger Holten; Knut Erik Tollefsen; +3 Authors

    The use of Bayesian networks (BN) for environmental risk assessment has increased in recent years as they offer a more transparent way to characterize risk and evaluate uncertainty than the traditional risk assessment paradigms. In this study, a novel probabilistic approach applying a BN for risk calculation was further developed and explored by linking the calculation a risk quotient to alternative future scenarios. This extended version of the BN model uses predictions from a process-based pesticide exposure model (World Integrated System for Pesticide Exposure - WISPE) in the exposure characterization and toxicity test data in the effect characterization. The probability distributions for exposure and effect are combined into a risk characterization (i.e. the probability distribution of a risk quotient), a common measure of the exceedance of an environmentally safe exposure threshold. The BN model was used to account for variabilities of the predicted pesticide exposure in agricultural streams, and inter-species variability in sensitivity to the pesticide among freshwater species. In Northern Europe, future climate scenarios typically predict increased temperature and precipitation, which can be expected to cause an increase in weed infestations, plant disease and insect pests. Such climate-related changes in pest pressure in turn can give rise to altered agricultural practices, such as increased pesticide application rates, as an adaptation to climate change. The WISPE model was used to link a set of scenarios consisting of two climate models, three pesticide application scenarios and three periods (year ranges), for a case study in South-East Norway. The model was set up for the case study by specifying environmental factors such as soil properties and field slope together with chemical properties of pesticides to predict the pesticide exposure in streams adjacent to the agricultural fields. The model was parameterized and evaluated for five selected pesticides: the three herbicides clopyralid, fluroxypyr-meptyl, and 2-(4-chloro-2-methylphenoxy) acetic acid (MCPA), and the two fungicides prothiocanzole and trifloxystrobin. This approach enabled the calculation and visualization of probability distribution of the risk quotients for the future time horizons 2050 and 2085. The risk posed by the pesticides were in general low for this case study, with highest probability of the risk quotient exceeding 1 for the two herbicides fluroxypyr-meptyl and MCPA. The future climate projections used here resulted in only minor changes in predicted exposure concentrations and thereby future risk. However, a stronger increase in risk was predicted for the scenarios with increased pesticide application, which can represent an adaptation to a future climate with higher pest pressures. In the current study, the specific BN model predictions were constrained by an existing set of climate projections which represented only one IPCC scenario (A1B) and two climate models. Further advancement of the BN modelling demonstrated herein, including more recent climate scenarios and a larger set of climate models, is anticipated to result in more relevant risk characterization also for future climate conditions. This probabilistic approach will have the potential to aid targeted management of ecological risks in support of future research, industry and regulatory needs.

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    Authors: Nicholas Dercas; Nicolas R. Dalezios; Stamatis Stamatiadis; Eleftherios Evangelou; +3 Authors

    AquaCrop is a well-known water-oriented crop model. The model has been often used to simulate various crops and the water balance in the field under different irrigation treatments, but studies that relate AquaCrop to fertilization are rare. In this study, the ability of this model to simulate yield and the water balance parameters was investigated in a wheat field under different nitrogen management practices. During the 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 growing seasons, meteorological data were provided from a nearby meteorological station, and the evolution of soil water content and final yields were recorded. The model showed a very good performance at simulating the soil water content evolution in the root zone. Notwithstanding its simplicity, AquaCrop based on a semi-quantitative approach for fertility performed well at the field level for the final yield estimation under different nitrogen treatments and field topography variation. Although the correlation coefficient between simulated and measured final yields was high, increased values of variations were observed in the various zones of this experimental field (−50% to +140%). The model appears to be an efficient tool for evaluating and improving the management practices at the field level. The experiments were conducted in Thessaly, which is the largest plain and the main agricultural area of Greece. Thessaly, however, has a strong negative water balance, which has led to a strong decrease in the level of the aquifer and, at the same time, to sea intrusion. There is also a significant risk of contamination of the groundwater aquifer due to increased use of agrochemicals. This analysis is particularly important for Thessaly due to the need for improvement of agricultural practices in this area, to decrease the pressure of agricultural activities on natural resources (soil, water) and reverse the consequences of current management.

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    Hydrology
    Other literature type . Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    Hydrology
    Article . 2022
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    Authors: GIAMBERINI, MARIASILVIA; Provenzale, Antonello; Marangi, Carmela; Donato, Assunta;

    Poster presented at the EUROGEOSS 2019 conference - Lisbona (PT) ��� Pavilaho do Conoscimiento

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  • Authors: Manios, Y; Lambert, Katrina; Karaglani, E; Mavrogianni, C; +82 Authors

    Objective: To examine the effect of the intervention implemented in the ToyBox study on changes observed in age and sex specific BMI percentile and investigate the role of perinatal factors, parental perceptions and characteristics on this change. Design: A multicomponent, kindergarten-based, family-involved intervention with a cluster-randomized design. A standardized protocol was used to measure children’s body weight and height. Information was also collected from parents/caregivers via the use of validated questionnaires. Linear mixed effect models with random intercept for country, socioeconomic status and school were used. Setting: Selected preschools within the provinces of Oost-Flanders and West-Flanders (Belgium), Varna (Bulgaria), Bavaria (Germany), Attica (Greece), Mazowieckie (Poland) and Zaragoza (Spain). Participants: A sample of 6,268 pre-schoolers aged 3.5-5.5 (51.9% boys). Results: There was no intervention effect on the change in children’s BMI percentile. However, parents’ underestimation of their children’s actual weight status, parental overweight and mothers’ pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity were found to be significantly and independently associated with increases in children’s BMI percentile in multivariate modelling. Conclusion: Before or as part of the implementation of any childhood obesity intervention initiative, it is important to assist parents/caregivers to correctly perceive their own and their children’s weight status. Recognition of excessive weight by parents/caregivers can increase their readiness to change and as such facilitate higher adherence to favourable behavioural changes within the family.

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    Authors: Miguel‐Berges, María L.; Mouratidou, Theodora; Santaliestra‐Pasias, Alba; Androutsos, Odysseas; +9 Authors

    SummaryBackgroundLifestyle behaviours related to diet and physical activity are associated with increased risk of obesity and evidence suggests that associations might be stronger when a synergetic effect is examined.ObjectiveTo examine the cross‐sectional and longitudinal associations between diet, screen time (ST) and step recommendations and risk of overweight and obesity in European preschoolers participating in the ToyBox‐study.MethodsIn this cluster‐randomized clinical trial, 718 children (51.4% boys) from six European countries participated. Parents filled out questionnaires with information on socio‐demographic status, step recommendations and ST.ResultsLongitudinal results indicate that participants having a low Diet Quality Index (DQI), not meeting ST and step recommendations at T0 and T1 had higher odds of having overweight/obesity at T1 (odds ratio [OR] = 1.116; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.104–2.562) than those children having a high DQI and meeting ST and step recommendations at T0 and T1. Similarly, participants having a high DQI, but not meeting ST and step recommendations at T0 and T1 had increased odds of having overweight/obesity (OR = 2.515; 95% CI = 1.171–3.021).ConclusionsThe proportion of participants having a low DQI, not adhering to both step and ST recommendations was very high, and it was associated with a higher probability of having overweight and obesity.

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    Pediatric Obesity
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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      Pediatric Obesity
      Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Paolo Annicchiarico; Abco J. de Buck; Dimitrios N. Vlachostergios; Dennis Heupink; +3 Authors

    White lupin is a promising high-protein crop, the cultivation of which is limited by a lack of adaptation to soils that are even just mildly calcareous. This study aimed to assess the phenotypic variation, the trait architecture based on a GWAS, and the predictive ability of genome-enabled models for grain yield and contributing traits of a genetically-broad population of 140 lines grown in an autumn-sown environment of Greece (Larissa) and a spring-sown environment of the Netherlands (Ens) that featured moderately calcareous and alkaline soils. We found large genotype × environment interaction and modest or nil genetic correlation for line responses across locations for grain yield, a lime susceptibility score, and other traits, with the exception of individual seed weight and plant height. The GWAS identified significant SNP markers associated with various traits that were markedly inconsistent across locations, while providing direct or indirect evidence for widespread polygenic trait control. Genomic selection proved to be a feasible strategy, owing to a moderate predictive ability for yield and lime susceptibility in Larissa (the site featuring greater lime soil stress). Other supporting results for breeding programs where the identification of a candidate gene for lime tolerance and the high reliability of genome-enabled predictions for individual seed weight.

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    Plants
    Other literature type . Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    Plants
    Article . 2023
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    Plants
    Article . 2023
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      Plants
      Other literature type . Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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      Plants
      Article . 2023
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      Plants
      Article . 2023
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    Authors: Vanya Stoycheva; Davide Geneletti;

    There is a high growing demand for regulating ecosystem services such as air quality regulation, regulation of air temperature and humidity, and flood regulation, in urban ecosystems which is important for urban planning. A comprehensive review of the current studies of the urban ecosystem, regulating ecosystem services, and their connection with urban planning actions is needed. The current paper presents such a review conducted in six stages to evaluate the state-of-the-art of regulating ecosystem services and their relationship with urban planning. It includes 58 papers selected after a precise keywords search and developed by publication screening, defining indicators, developing an assessment template, and meta-analysis of the results. The analyses are focused on spatial data used in the studies, the methods applied for ecosystem services assessment, and the relationships between regulating ecosystem services, urban planning, and green infrastructure. The most studied regulating ecosystem services within reviewed publications are regulation of chemical composition of atmosphere and oceans, regulation of temperature and humidity, including ventilation and transpiration, and hydrological cycle and water flow regulation (including flood control, and coastal protection). Although urban planning-related papers are only 1/3 of the pool of papers, appropriate results have been obtained for assessing the urban planning-regulating ecosystem services relation. The review also identified some significant knowledge gaps that can be used as a starting point for future studies.

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    Authors: Roberto Martínez-Beamonte; Roberto Martínez-Beamonte; Roberto Martínez-Beamonte; Marina Ripalda; +23 Authors

    IntroductionPulsed electric field (PEF) has been used for improving extraction of extra virgin olive oil (EVOO). However, the biological changes induced by the consumption of pulsed electric field-obtained extra virgin olive oil (PEFEVOO) have not been studied yet.Materials and methodsEVOO oils from Empeltre variety were prepared by standard (STD) cold pressure method involving crushing of the olives, malaxation and decanting and by this procedure including an additional step of PEF treatment. Chemical analyses of EVOO oils were done. Male and female Apoe-deficient mice received diets differing in both EVOOs for 12 weeks, and their plasma, aortas and livers were analyzed.ResultsPEF application resulted in a 17% increase in the oil yield and minimal changes in chemical composition regarding phytosterols, phenolic compounds and microRNA. Only in females mice consuming PEF EVOO, a decreased plasma total cholesterol was observed, without significant changes in atherosclerosis and liver steatosis.ConclusionPEF technology applied to EVOO extraction maintains the EVOO quality and improves the oil yield. The equivalent biological effects in atherosclerosis and fatty liver disease of PEF-obtained EVOO further support its safe use as a food.

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    Frontiers in Nutrition
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    Frontiers in Nutrition
    Article . 2022
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      Frontiers in Nutrition
      Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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      Frontiers in Nutrition
      Article . 2022
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    Authors: Amanda T. Lombard; Jai Clifford-Holmes; Victoria Goodall; Bernadette Snow; +17 Authors

    AbstractWith a focus on oceans, we collaborated across ecological, social and legal disciplines to respond to the United Nations call for transformation in the ‘2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’. We developed a set of 13 principles that strategically and critically connect transformative ocean research to transformative ocean governance (complementing the UN Decade for Ocean Science). We used a rigorous, iterative and transparent consensus-building approach to define the principles, which can interact in supporting, neutral or sometimes conflicting ways. We recommend that the principles could be applied as a comprehensive set and discuss how to learn from their interactions, particularly those that reveal hidden tensions. The principles can bring and keep together partnerships for innovative ocean action. This action must respond to the many calls to reform current ocean-use practices which are based on economic growth models that have perpetuated inequities and fuelled conflict and environmental decline.

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    Nature Sustainability
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3....
    Preprint . 2022
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    UCL Discovery
    Article . 2023
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      Nature Sustainability
      Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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      https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3....
      Preprint . 2022
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      UCL Discovery
      Article . 2023
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    Authors: Arnaud Guyennon; Björn Reineking; Roberto Salguero‐Gomez; Jonas Dahlgren; +5 Authors

    AbstractAimLinking local population dynamics and species distributions is crucial to predicting the impacts of climate change. Although many studies focus on the mean fitness of populations, theory shows that species distributions can be shaped by demographic stochasticity or population resilience. Here, we examine how mean fitness (measured by invasion rate), demographic stochasticity and resilience (measured by the ability to recover from disturbance) constrain populations at the edges compared with the climatic centre.LocationEurope: Spain, France, Germany, Finland and Sweden.PeriodForest inventory data used for fitting the models cover the period from 1985 to 2013.Major taxaDominant European tree species; angiosperms and gymnosperms.MethodsWe developed dynamic population models covering the entire life cycle of 25 European tree species with climatically dependent recruitment models fitted to forest inventory data. We then ran simulations using integral projection and individual‐based models to test how invasion rates, risk of stochastic extinction and ability to recover from stochastic disturbances differ between the centre and edges of the climatic niches of species.ResultsResults varied among species, but in general, demographic constraints were stronger at warm edges and for species in harsher climates. Conversely, recovery was more limiting at cold edges. In addition, we found that for several species, constraints at the edges were attributable to demographic stochasticity and capacity for recovery rather than mean fitness.Main conclusionsOur results highlight that mean fitness is not the only mechanism at play at the edges; demographic stochasticity and population capacity to recover also matter for European tree species. To understand how climate change will drive species range shifts, future studies will need to analyse the interplay between population mean growth rate and stochastic demographic processes in addition to disturbances.

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    Global Ecology and Biogeography
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      Global Ecology and Biogeography
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    Authors: Sophie Mentzel; Merete Grung; Roger Holten; Knut Erik Tollefsen; +3 Authors

    The use of Bayesian networks (BN) for environmental risk assessment has increased in recent years as they offer a more transparent way to characterize risk and evaluate uncertainty than the traditional risk assessment paradigms. In this study, a novel probabilistic approach applying a BN for risk calculation was further developed and explored by linking the calculation a risk quotient to alternative future scenarios. This extended version of the BN model uses predictions from a process-based pesticide exposure model (World Integrated System for Pesticide Exposure - WISPE) in the exposure characterization and toxicity test data in the effect characterization. The probability distributions for exposure and effect are combined into a risk characterization (i.e. the probability distribution of a risk quotient), a common measure of the exceedance of an environmentally safe exposure threshold. The BN model was used to account for variabilities of the predicted pesticide exposure in agricultural streams, and inter-species variability in sensitivity to the pesticide among freshwater species. In Northern Europe, future climate scenarios typically predict increased temperature and precipitation, which can be expected to cause an increase in weed infestations, plant disease and insect pests. Such climate-related changes in pest pressure in turn can give rise to altered agricultural practices, such as increased pesticide application rates, as an adaptation to climate change. The WISPE model was used to link a set of scenarios consisting of two climate models, three pesticide application scenarios and three periods (year ranges), for a case study in South-East Norway. The model was set up for the case study by specifying environmental factors such as soil properties and field slope together with chemical properties of pesticides to predict the pesticide exposure in streams adjacent to the agricultural fields. The model was parameterized and evaluated for five selected pesticides: the three herbicides clopyralid, fluroxypyr-meptyl, and 2-(4-chloro-2-methylphenoxy) acetic acid (MCPA), and the two fungicides prothiocanzole and trifloxystrobin. This approach enabled the calculation and visualization of probability distribution of the risk quotients for the future time horizons 2050 and 2085. The risk posed by the pesticides were in general low for this case study, with highest probability of the risk quotient exceeding 1 for the two herbicides fluroxypyr-meptyl and MCPA. The future climate projections used here resulted in only minor changes in predicted exposure concentrations and thereby future risk. However, a stronger increase in risk was predicted for the scenarios with increased pesticide application, which can represent an adaptation to a future climate with higher pest pressures. In the current study, the specific BN model predictions were constrained by an existing set of climate projections which represented only one IPCC scenario (A1B) and two climate models. Further advancement of the BN modelling demonstrated herein, including more recent climate scenarios and a larger set of climate models, is anticipated to result in more relevant risk characterization also for future climate conditions. This probabilistic approach will have the potential to aid targeted management of ecological risks in support of future research, industry and regulatory needs.

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    Authors: Nicholas Dercas; Nicolas R. Dalezios; Stamatis Stamatiadis; Eleftherios Evangelou; +3 Authors

    AquaCrop is a well-known water-oriented crop model. The model has been often used to simulate various crops and the water balance in the field under different irrigation treatments, but studies that relate AquaCrop to fertilization are rare. In this study, the ability of this model to simulate yield and the water balance parameters was investigated in a wheat field under different nitrogen management practices. During the 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 growing seasons, meteorological data were provided from a nearby meteorological station, and the evolution of soil water content and final yields were recorded. The model showed a very good performance at simulating the soil water content evolution in the root zone. Notwithstanding its simplicity, AquaCrop based on a semi-quantitative approach for fertility performed well at the field level for the final yield estimation under different nitrogen treatments and field topography variation. Although the correlation coefficient between simulated and measured final yields was high, increased values of variations were observed in the various zones of this experimental field (−50% to +140%). The model appears to be an efficient tool for evaluating and improving the management practices at the field level. The experiments were conducted in Thessaly, which is the largest plain and the main agricultural area of Greece. Thessaly, however, has a strong negative water balance, which has led to a strong decrease in the level of the aquifer and, at the same time, to sea intrusion. There is also a significant risk of contamination of the groundwater aquifer due to increased use of agrochemicals. This analysis is particularly important for Thessaly due to the need for improvement of agricultural practices in this area, to decrease the pressure of agricultural activities on natural resources (soil, water) and reverse the consequences of current management.

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    Hydrology
    Other literature type . Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    Hydrology
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    Authors: GIAMBERINI, MARIASILVIA; Provenzale, Antonello; Marangi, Carmela; Donato, Assunta;

    Poster presented at the EUROGEOSS 2019 conference - Lisbona (PT) ��� Pavilaho do Conoscimiento

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  • Authors: Manios, Y; Lambert, Katrina; Karaglani, E; Mavrogianni, C; +82 Authors

    Objective: To examine the effect of the intervention implemented in the ToyBox study on changes observed in age and sex specific BMI percentile and investigate the role of perinatal factors, parental perceptions and characteristics on this change. Design: A multicomponent, kindergarten-based, family-involved intervention with a cluster-randomized design. A standardized protocol was used to measure children’s body weight and height. Information was also collected from parents/caregivers via the use of validated questionnaires. Linear mixed effect models with random intercept for country, socioeconomic status and school were used. Setting: Selected preschools within the provinces of Oost-Flanders and West-Flanders (Belgium), Varna (Bulgaria), Bavaria (Germany), Attica (Greece), Mazowieckie (Poland) and Zaragoza (Spain). Participants: A sample of 6,268 pre-schoolers aged 3.5-5.5 (51.9% boys). Results: There was no intervention effect on the change in children’s BMI percentile. However, parents’ underestimation of their children’s actual weight status, parental overweight and mothers’ pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity were found to be significantly and independently associated with increases in children’s BMI percentile in multivariate modelling. Conclusion: Before or as part of the implementation of any childhood obesity intervention initiative, it is important to assist parents/caregivers to correctly perceive their own and their children’s weight status. Recognition of excessive weight by parents/caregivers can increase their readiness to change and as such facilitate higher adherence to favourable behavioural changes within the family.

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