Simulating ensembles of extreme events is a necessary task to evaluate their probability distribution and analyze their meteorological properties. Algorithms of importance sampling have provided a way to simulate trajectories of dynamical systems (like climate models) that yield extreme behavior, like heat waves. Such algorithms also give access to the return periods of such events. We present an adaptation based on circulation analogues of importance sampling to provide a data-based algorithm that simulates extreme events like heat waves in a realistic way. This algorithm is a modification of a stochastic weather generator, which gives more weight to trajectories with higher temperatures. This presentation outlines the methodology using European heat waves and illustrates the spatial and temporal properties of simulations.
Downward-facing shadow cameras might play a major role in future energy meteorology. Shadow cameras directly image shadows on the ground from an elevated position. They are used to validate other systems (e.g. all-sky imager based nowcasting systems, cloud speed sensors or satellite forecasts) and can potentially provide short term forecasts for solar power plants. Such forecasts are needed for electricity grids with high penetrations of renewable energy and can help to optimize plant operations. In this publication, two key applications of shadow cameras are briefly presented.
We present high-resolution measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations from a shallow ice core of the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling project (NEEM-2011-S1). An optical-feedback cavity-enhanced absorption spectrometer (OF-CEAS) coupled to a continuous melter system performed continuous, online analysis during a four-week measurement campaign. This analytical setup generated stable measurements of CO concentrations with an external precision of 7.8 ppbv (1σ), based on repeated analyses of equivalent ice core sections. However, this first application of this measurement technique suffered from a poorly constrained procedural blank of 48 ± 25 ppbv and poor accuracy because an absolute calibration was not possible. The NEEM-2011-S1 CO record spans 1800 yr and the long-term trends within the most recent section of this record (i.e., post 1700 AD) resemble the existing discrete CO measurements from the Eurocore ice core. However, the CO concentration is highly variable (75–1327 ppbv range) throughout the ice core with high frequency (annual scale), high amplitude spikes characterizing the record. These CO signals are too abrupt and rapid to reflect atmospheric variability and their prevalence largely prevents interpretation of the record in terms of atmospheric CO variation. The abrupt CO spikes are likely the result of in situ production occurring within the ice itself, although the unlikely possibility of CO production driven by non-photolytic, fast kinetic processes within the continuous melter system cannot be excluded. We observe that 68% of the CO spikes are observed in ice layers enriched with pyrogenic aerosols. Such aerosols, originating from boreal biomass burning emissions, contain organic compounds, which may be oxidized or photodissociated to produce CO within the ice. However, the NEEM-2011-S1 record displays an increase of ~0.05 ppbv yr−1 in baseline CO level prior to 1700 AD (129 m depth) and the concentration remains elevated, even for ice layers depleted in dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Thus, the processes driving the likely in situ production of CO within the NEEM ice may involve multiple, complex chemical pathways not all related to past fire history and require further investigation.
Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data have shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently, there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emission estimates back in time based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant, with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 Pg C yr−1. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990s after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates, and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 % of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emission estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations.
Unlike fragmental rockfall runout assessments, there are only few robust methods to quantify rock-mass-failure susceptibilities at regional scale. A detailed slope angle analysis of recent Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to detect potential rockfall source areas, thanks to the Slope Angle Distribution procedure. However, this method does not provide any information on block-release frequencies inside identified areas. The present paper adds to the Slope Angle Distribution of cliffs unit its normalized cumulative distribution function. This improvement is assimilated to a quantitative weighting of slope angles, introducing rock-mass-failure susceptibilities inside rockfall source areas previously detected. Then rockfall runout assessment is performed using the GIS- and process-based software Flow-R, providing relative frequencies for runout. Thus, taking into consideration both susceptibility results, this approach can be used to establish, after calibration, hazard and risk maps at regional scale. As an example, a risk analysis of vehicle traffic exposed to rockfalls is performed along the main roads of the Swiss alpine valley of Bagnes.
The Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) contribute to one fifth of the global catches in the ocean. Often associated with Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs), EBUS represent key regions for the oceanic nitrogen (N) cycle. Important bioavailable N loss due to denitrification and anammox processes as well as greenhouse gas emissions (e.g, N2O) occur also in these EBUS. However, their dynamics are currently crudely represented in global models. In the climate change context, improving our capability to properly represent these areas is crucial due to anticipated changes in the winds, productivity, and oxygen content. We developed a biogeochemical model (BioEBUS) taking into account the main processes linked with EBUS and associated OMZs. We implemented this model in a 3-D realistic coupled physical/biogeochemical configuration in the Namibian upwelling system (northern Benguela) using the high-resolution hydrodynamic ROMS model. We present here a validation using in situ and satellite data as well as diagnostic metrics and sensitivity analyses of key parameters and N2O parameterizations. The impact of parameter values on the OMZ off Namibia, on N loss, and on N2O concentrations and emissions is detailed. The model realistically reproduces the vertical distribution and seasonal cycle of observed oxygen, nitrate, and chlorophyll a concentrations, and the rates of microbial processes (e.g, NH4+ and NO2− oxidation, NO3− reduction, and anammox) as well. Based on our sensitivity analyses, biogeochemical parameter values associated with organic matter decomposition, vertical sinking, and nitrification play a key role for the low-oxygen water content, N loss, and N2O concentrations in the OMZ. Moreover, the explicit parameterization of both steps of nitrification, ammonium oxidation to nitrate with nitrite as an explicit intermediate, is necessary to improve the representation of microbial activity linked with the OMZ. The simulated minimum oxygen concentrations are driven by the poleward meridional advection of oxygen-depleted waters offshore of a 300 m isobath and by the biogeochemical activity inshore of this isobath, highlighting a spatial shift of dominant processes maintaining the minimum oxygen concentrations off Namibia. In the OMZ off Namibia, the magnitude of N2O outgassing and of N loss is comparable. Anammox contributes to about 20% of total N loss, an estimate lower than currently assumed (up to 50%) for the global ocean.
Palanques, A.; Puig, P.; Guillén, J.; Durrieu de Madron, X.; Latasa, M.; Scharek, R.; Martin, J.;
Palanques, A.; Puig, P.; Guillén, J.; Durrieu de Madron, X.; Latasa, M.; Scharek, R.; Martin, J.;
Project: EC | HERMIONE (226354)
Shelf-to-basin sediment transport during storms was studied at the southwestern end of the Gulf of Lions from November 2003 to March 2004. Waves, near-bottom currents, temperature and sediment fluxes were measured on the inner shelf at 28-m depth, in the Cap de Creus submarine canyon head at 300-m depth and in the northwestern Mediterranean basin at 2350-m depth. This paper is a synthesis of results published separately in different papers; it includes some new data and focusses on the subject of storms. It is the first paper in which simultaneous data about the effect of storms on the shelf, the slope and in the basin are shown together. During the winter studied, there were two severe E-SE storms with significant wave heights ≥ 7 m: one in December 2003 and one in February 2004. During these storms, coastal water was exported off-shelf producing strong near-bottom currents (up to 82 cm s−1) at the canyon head that resuspended sediment and increased the downcanyon sediment fluxes by several orders of magnitude. The suspended sediment flux increase in the canyon head was much larger during the February storm than during the December storm. At the deep basin site, particle fluxes also increased drastically (1–2 orders of magnitude) immediately after the February storm but not after the December storm. The reason was that the February storm was reinforced by dense shelf water cascading and was long enough (43 h) to transfer large amounts of resuspended sediment from shallow shelf areas to the canyon head and from there to the northwestern Mediterranean basin. Thus, in the western Gulf of Lions, severe winter E-SE storms occurring during the dense shelf water cascading period can significantly increase the transfer to deep-sea (> 2000 m) environments of shelf and slope resuspended material, including anthropogenic contaminants and organic matter.
Frigola, J.; Canals, M.; Cacho, I.; Moreno, A.; Sierro, F. J.; Flores, J. A.; Berné, S.; Jouet, G.; Dennielou, B.; Herrera, G.; +4 more
Frigola, J.; Canals, M.; Cacho, I.; Moreno, A.; Sierro, F. J.; Flores, J. A.; Berné, S.; Jouet, G.; Dennielou, B.; Herrera, G.; Pasqual, C.; Grimalt, J. O.; Galavazi, M.; Schneider, R.;
Project: EC | HERMIONE (226354)
Borehole PRGL1-4 drilled in the upper slope of the Gulf of Lion provides an exceptional record to investigate the impact of late Pleistocene orbitally-driven glacio-eustatic sea-level oscillations on the sedimentary outbuilding of a river fed continental margin. High-resolution grain-size and geochemical records supported by oxygen isotope chronostratigraphy allow reinterpreting the last 500 ka upper slope seismostratigraphy of the Gulf of Lion. Five main sequences, stacked during the sea-level lowering phases of the last five glacial-interglacial 100-kyr cycles, form the upper stratigraphic outbuilding of the continental margin. The high sensitivity of the grain-size record down the borehole to sea-level oscillations can be explained by the great width of the Gulf of Lion continental shelf. Sea level driven changes in accommodation space over the shelf cyclically modified the depositional mode of the entire margin. PRGL1-4 data also illustrate the imprint of sea-level oscillations at millennial time-scale, as shown for Marine Isotopic Stage 3, and provide unambiguous evidence of relative high sea-levels at the onset of each Dansgaard-Oeschger Greenland warm interstadial. The PRGL1-4 grain-size record represents the first evidence for a one-to-one coupling of millennial time-scale sea-level oscillations associated with each Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle.
The deep-sea hydrothermal vent mussel Bathymodiolus azoricus is a symbiont bearing bivalve that is found in great abundance at the Menez Gwen and Lucky Strike vent sites and in close vicinity off the Azores region near the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR). The distinct relationships that vent mussels have developed with their physical and chemical environments are likely reflected in global gene expression profiles providing thus a means to distinguish geographically distinct vent mussels on the basis of gene expression studies, fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) experiments and 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing, to assess the natural expression of bacterial genes and vent mussel immune genes and the constitutive distribution and relative abundance of endosymbiotic bacteria within gill tissues. Our results confirmed the presence of methanotroph-related endosymbionts in Menez Gwen vent mussels whereas Lucky Strike specimens seem to harbor a different bacterial morphotype when a methane monooxygenase gene specific probe was used. No qualitative differences could be visualized between Menez Gwen and Lucky Strike individuals when tested with sulfur-oxidizing-related nucleic-acid probe. Quantitative PCR (qPCR) studies revealed varied gene expression profiles in both Menez Gwen and Lucky Strike mussel gill tissues for the immune genes selected. Genes encoding transcription factors presented noticeably low levels of fold expression whether in MG or LS animals whereas the genes encoding effector molecules appeared to have higher levels expression in MG gill tissues. The peptidoglycan recognition molecule, encoding gene, PGRP presented the highest level of transcriptional activity among the genes analyzed in MG gill tissues, seconded by carcinolectin and thus denoting the relevance of immune recognition molecules in early stage of the immune responses onset. Genes regarded as encoding molecules involved in signaling pathways were consistently expressed in both MG and LS gill tissues. Remarkably, the immunity-related GTPase encoding gene demonstrated in LS samples, the highest level of expression among the signaling molecule encoding genes tested when expressions levels were compared between MG and LG animals. A differential expression analysis of bacterial genes between MG and LS indicated a clear expression signature in LS gill tissues. The bacterial community structure ensued from the 16S rRNA sequencing analyses pointed at a unpredicted conservation of endosymbiont bacterial loads between MG and LS samples. Taken together, our results support the premise that Bathymodiolus azoricus exhibits different transcriptional statuses depending on which hydrothermal vent site it is collected from and within the same collection site while exhibiting differential levels of expression of genes corresponding to different immune functional categories. The present study represents a first attempt to characterize gene expression signatures in hydrothermal vent animals issued from distinct deep-sea environmental sites based on immune and bacterial genes expressions.
Coastal time series of ocean carbonate chemistry are critical for understanding how global anthropogenic change manifests in near-shore ecosystems. Yet, they are few and have low temporal resolution. At the time series station Point B in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, seawater was sampled weekly from 2007 through 2015, at 1 and 50 m, and analyzed for total dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) and total alkalinity (AT). Parameters of the carbonate system such as pH (pHT, total hydrogen ion scale) were calculated and a deconvolution analysis was performed to identify drivers of change. The rate of surface ocean acidification was −0.0028 ± 0.0003 units pHT yr−1. This rate is larger than previously identified open-ocean trends due to rapid warming that occurred over the study period (0.072 ± 0.022 °C yr−1). The total pHT change over the study period was of similar magnitude as the diel pHT variability at this site. The acidification trend can be attributed to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing (59 %, 2.08 ± 0.01 ppm CO2 yr−1) and warming (41 %). Similar trends were observed at 50 m but rates were generally slower. At 1 m depth, the increase in atmospheric CO2 accounted for approximately 40 % of the observed increase in CT (2.97 ± 0.20 µmol kg−1 yr−1). The remaining increase in CT may have been driven by the same unidentified process that caused an increase in AT (2.08 ± 0.19 µmol kg−1 yr−1). Based on the analysis of monthly trends, synchronous increases in CT and AT were fastest in the spring–summer transition. The driving process of the interannual increase in AT has a seasonal and shallow component, which may indicate riverine or groundwater influence. This study exemplifies the importance of understanding changes in coastal carbonate chemistry through the lens of biogeochemical cycling at the land–sea interface. This is the first coastal acidification time series providing multiyear data at high temporal resolution. The data confirm rapid warming in the Mediterranean Sea and demonstrate coastal acidification with a synchronous increase in total alkalinity.
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