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Abstract. The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global meansea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arcticcontinues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increasedsurface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat ofmarine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble ofGreenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset ofthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level risecontributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of theIce Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate thesea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climateforcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the twogreenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The resultsindicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in bothscenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largestmass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed bysurface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today.Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced controlexperiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. massloss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcingremained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertaintyexplains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty andocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm,respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, thelargest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding andimplementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheetwith the ocean. info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) extends around 600 km upstream from the coast to its onset near the ice divide in interior Greenland. Several maps of surface velocity and topography in the interior Greenland exist, but the accuracy is not well constrained by in situ observations and limiting detailed studies of flow structures and shear margins near the onset of NEGIS. Here we present the results from a GPS mapping of surface velocity in an area located approximately 150 km from the ice divide near the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EastGRIP) deep drilling site (75°38’ N, 35°60’ W). A GPS strain net consisting of 63 poles was established and observed over the years 2015–2019. The strain net covers 35 km along NEGIS and 40 km across NEGIS, including both shear margins. The ice flows with a uniform surface speed of approximately 55 m a−1 within a > 10 km wide central flow band with strain rates in the order of 10−4 a−1. The strain rates increase in the shear margins by an order of magnitude, and 10–20 m deep shear margin troughs mark a zone with enhanced longitudinal stretching, transverse compression and shear. We compare the GPS results to the Arctic Digital Elevation Model (ArcticDEM) and a list of satellite-based surface velocity products in order to evaluate these products. For each velocity product, we determine the bias and precision of the velocity compared to the GPS observations, as well as the smoothing of the velocity products needed to obtain optimal precision. The best products have a bias and precision of ~0.5 m a−1. We combine the GPS results with satellite-based products and show that organized patterns in flow and topography emerge in the NEGIS ice stream when the surface velocity exceeds approximately 55 m a−1 and are related to bedrock topography.

Projections of the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise include uncertainties primarily due to the imposed climate forcing and the initial state of the ice sheet model. Several state-of-the-art ice flow models are currently being employed on various grid resolutions to estimate future mass changes in the framework of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). Here we investigate the sensitivity to grid resolution of centennial sea-level contributions from the Greenland ice sheet and study the mechanism at play.We employ the finiteelement higher-order Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) and conduct experiments with four different horizontal resolutions, namely 4, 2, 1 and 0.75 km. We run the simulation based on the ISMIP6 core climate forcing from the MIROC5 global circulation model (GCM) under the highemission Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and consider both atmospheric and oceanic forcing in full and separate scenarios. Under the full scenarios, finer simulations unveil up to approximately 5% more sea-level rise compared to the coarser resolution. The sensitivity depends on the magnitude of outlet glacier retreat, which is implemented as a series of retreat masks following the ISMIP6 protocol. Without imposed retreat under atmosphereonly forcing, the resolution dependency exhibits an opposite behaviour with approximately 5% more sea-level contribution in the coarser resolution. The sea-level contribution indicates a converging behaviour below a 1 km horizontal resolution. A driving mechanism for differences is the ability to resolve the bedrock topography, which highly controls ice discharge to the ocean. Additionally, thinning and acceleration emerge to propagate further inland in high resolution for many glaciers. A major response mechanism is sliding, with an enhanced feedback on the effective normal pressure at higher resolution leading to a larger increase in sliding speeds under scenarios with outlet glacier retreat. info:eu-repo/semantics/published SCOPUS: ar.j

Curvilinear channels on the surface of an ice shelf indicate the presence of large channels at the base. Modelling studies have shown that where these surface expressions intersect the grounding line, they coincide with the likely outflow of subglacial water. An understanding of the initiation and the ice–ocean evolution of the basal channels is required to understand the present behaviour and future dynamics of ice sheets and ice shelves. Here, we present focused active seismic and radar surveys of a basal channel, ∼950 m wide and ∼200 m high, and its upstream continuation beneath Support Force Glacier, which feeds into the Filchner Ice Shelf, West Antarctica. Immediately seaward from the grounding line, below the basal channel, the seismic profiles show an ∼6.75 km long, 3.2 km wide and 200 m thick sedimentary sequence with chaotic to weakly stratified reflections we interpret as a grounding line fan deposited by a subglacial drainage channel directly upstream of the basal channel. Further downstream the seabed has a different character; it consists of harder, stratified consolidated sediments, deposited under different glaciological circumstances, or possibly bedrock. In contrast to the standard perception of a rapid change in ice shelf thickness just downstream of the grounding line, we find a flat topography of the ice shelf base with an almost constant ice thickness gradient along-flow, indicating only little basal melting, but an initial widening of the basal channel, which we ascribe to melting along its flanks. Our findings provide a detailed view of a more complex interaction between the ocean and subglacial hydrology to form basal channels in ice shelves.

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution inresponse to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute tofuture sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future massbalance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physicalprocesses, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presentsresults from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolutionof the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet ModelIntercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from theCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climatemodel results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in responseto increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent(SLE) under Representative ConcentrationPathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment withconstant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution underclimate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of theWest Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighingthe increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelfcollapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface ofice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without iceshelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, thecalibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavitiesand the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario basedon two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared tosimulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and displaylimited mass gain in East Antarctica. info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Snow consists of non-spherical grains of various shapes and sizes. Still, in radiative transfer calculations, snow grains are often treated as spherical. This also applies to the computation of snow albedo in the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model and in the Los Alamos sea ice model, version 4 (CICE4), both of which are employed in the Community Earth System Model and in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). In this study, we evaluate the effect of snow grain shape on climate simulated by NorESM in a slab ocean configuration of the model. An experiment with spherical snow grains (SPH) is compared with another (NONSPH) in which the snow shortwave single-scattering properties are based on a combination of three non-spherical snow grain shapes optimized using measurements of angular scattering by blowing snow. The key difference between these treatments is that the asymmetry parameter is smaller in the non-spherical case (0.77–0.78 in the visible region) than in the spherical case ( ≈ 0.89). Therefore, for the same effective snow grain size (or equivalently, the same specific projected area), the snow broadband albedo is higher when assuming non-spherical rather than spherical snow grains, typically by 0.02–0.03. Considering the spherical case as the baseline, this results in an instantaneous negative change in net shortwave radiation with a global-mean top-of-the-model value of ca. −0.22 W m−2. Although this global-mean radiative effect is rather modest, the impacts on the climate simulated by NorESM are substantial. The global annual-mean 2 m air temperature in NONSPH is 1.17 K lower than in SPH, with substantially larger differences at high latitudes. The climatic response is amplified by strong snow and sea ice feedbacks. It is further demonstrated that the effect of snow grain shape could be largely offset by adjusting the snow grain size. When assuming non-spherical snow grains with the parameterized grain size increased by ca. 70 %, the climatic differences to the SPH experiment become very small. Finally, the impact of assumed snow grain shape on the radiative effects of absorbing aerosols in snow is discussed.