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While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends Financial support was provided by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research through ISI-MIP (Grant01LS1201A1), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program (Grant 678193), and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G). We acknowledge additional financial support as follows: to H.K.L., W.W.L.C., and B.W. from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada; to D.P.T. from the Kanne Rasmussen Foundation Denmark; to A.B.-B. from the NSERC Transatlantic Ocean Science and Technology Program; to W.W.L.C. and T.D.E. from the Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program; to E.D.G., M.C. and J. Steenbeek from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Re-search and Innovation Program (Grants 682602 and 689518); to E.A.F., J.L.B., andT.R. from Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization and the Australian Research Council; to N.B., L.B., and O.M. from the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche and Pôle de Calcul et de Données pour la Mer; and to S.J. from the UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 6 pages, 5 figures, supporting information https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900194116.-- All data reported in this paper are archived and publicly available at http://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/pik/showshort.php?id=escidoc:2956913. Peer Reviewed

Shearwaters and petrels (hereafter petrels) are highly adapted seabirds that occur across all the world’s oceans. Petrels are a threatened seabird group comprising 124 species. They have bet-hedging life histories typified by extended chick rearing periods, low fecundity, high adult survival, strong philopatry, monogamy and long-term mate fidelity and are thus vulnerable to change. Anthropogenic alterations on land and at sea have led to a poor conservation status of many petrels with 52 (42%) threatened species based on IUCN criteria and 65 (52%) suffering population declines. Some species are well-studied, even being used as bioindicators of ocean health, yet for others there are major knowledge gaps regarding their breeding grounds, migratory areas or other key aspects of their biology and ecology. We assembled 38 petrel conservation researchers to summarize information regarding the most important threats according to the IUCN Red List of threatened species to identify knowledge gaps that must be filled to improve conservation and management of petrels. We highlight research advances on the main threats for petrels (invasive species at breeding grounds, bycatch, overfishing, light pollution, climate change, and pollution). We propose an ambitious goal to reverse at least some of these six main threats, through active efforts such as restoring island habitats (e.g., invasive species removal, control and prevention), improving policies and regulations at global and regional levels, and engaging local communities in conservation efforts. AR and FR were supported by Juan de la Cierva programme, Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (IJCI-2015-23913 and IJCI-2015-24531). ML was funded by the Ramón y Cajal programme (RYC-2012-09897), Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness. WM was supported by an NSERC Discovery grant. MG was partially supported by the European Union (MINOUW Project, H2020-634495). JMA and VC were supported by ZEPAMED Project, Pleamar programme, Fundación Biodiversidad, Spanish Ministry of Ecological Transition. Este artículo contiene 27 páginas, 2 tablas, 5 figuras. Peer reviewed

Esterases receive special attention because of their wide distribution in biological systems and environments and their importance for physiology and chemical synthesis. The prediction of esterases’ substrate promiscuity level from sequence data and the molecular reasons why certain such enzymes are more promiscuous than others remain to be elucidated. This limits the surveillance of the sequence space for esterases potentially leading to new versatile biocatalysts and new insights into their role in cellular function. Here, we performed an extensive analysis of the substrate spectra of 145 phylogenetically and environmentally diverse microbial esterases, when tested with 96 diverse esters. We determined the primary factors shaping their substrate range by analyzing substrate range patterns in combination with structural analysis and protein–ligand simulations. We found a structural parameter that helps rank (classify) the promiscuity level of esterases from sequence data at 94% accuracy. This parameter, the active site effective volume, exemplifies the topology of the catalytic environment by measuring the active site cavity volume corrected by the relative solvent accessible surface area (SASA) of the catalytic triad. Sequences encoding esterases with active site effective volumes (cavity volume/SASA) above a threshold show greater substrate spectra, which can be further extended in combination with phylogenetic data. This measure provides also a valuable tool for interrogating substrates capable of being converted. This measure, found to be transferred to phosphatases of the haloalkanoic acid dehalogenase superfamily and possibly other enzymatic systems, represents a powerful tool for low-cost bioprospecting for esterases with broad substrate ranges, in large scale sequence data sets. C.C. thanks the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness for a Ph.D. fellowship (Grant BES-2015-073829). This project received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program [Blue Growth: Unlocking the potential of Seas and Oceans] under grant agreement no. 634486 (project acronym INMARE). This research was also supported by the European Community Projects MAGICPAH (FP7-KBBE-2009-245226), ULIXES (FP7-KBBE-2010-266473), and KILLSPILL (FP7-KBBE2012-312139) and grants BIO2011-25012, PCIN-2014-107, BIO2014-54494-R, and CTQ2016-79138-R from the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness. The present investigation was also funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness within the ERA NET IB2, grant no. ERA-IB-14-030 (MetaCat), the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), grant no. BB/M029085/1, and the German Research Foundation (FOR1296). R.B. and P.N.G. acknowledge the support of the Supercomputing Wales project, which is part-funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) via the Welsh Government. O.V.G. and P.N.G. acknowledge the support of the Centre of Environmental Biotechnology Project funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through the Welsh Government. A.Y. and A.S. gratefully acknowledge funding from Genome Canada (2009-OGI-ABC-1405) and the NSERC Strategic Network grant IBN. A.I.P. was supported by the Counseling of Economy and Employment of the Principality of Asturias, Spain (Grant FC-15-GRUPIN14-107). V.G. acknowledges the joint BSC-CRG-IRB Research Program in Computational Biology. The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support provided by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). We acknowledge support by the CSIC Open Access Publication Initiative through its Unit of Information Resources for Research (URICI). Peer reviewed

The Mediterranean Sea has been defined “under siege” because of intense pressures from multiple human activities; yet there is still insufficient information on the cumulative impact of these stressors on the ecosystem and its resources. We evaluate how the historical (1950–2011) trends of various ecosystems groups/species have been impacted by changes in primary productivity (PP) combined with fishing pressure. We investigate the whole Mediterranean Sea using a food web modelling approach. Results indicate that both changes in PP and fishing pressure played an important role in driving species dynamics. Yet, PP was the strongest driver upon the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem. This highlights the importance of bottom-up processes in controlling the biological characteristics of the region. We observe a reduction in abundance of important fish species (~34%, including commercial and non-commercial) and top predators (~41%), and increases of the organisms at the bottom of the food web (~23%). Ecological indicators, such as community biomass, trophic levels, catch and diversity indicators, reflect such changes and show overall ecosystem degradation over time. Since climate change and fishing pressure are expected to intensify in the Mediterranean Sea, this study constitutes a baseline reference for stepping forward in assessing the future management of the basin M.C. acknowledges support by the European Commission through the Marie Curie Career Integration Grant Fellowships – PCIG10-GA-2011-303534 - to the BIOWEB project. RD, MC and JS were partially funded by the European Union’s Horizon research and innovation programme grant agreement No 689518 for the MERCES project.VC acknowledges support through NSERC Discovery Grant RGPIN-2014-05782 18 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables, supporting information https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep44491 Peer Reviewed

The biodiversity-productivity relationship (BPR) is foundational to our understanding of the global extinction crisis and its impacts on ecosystem functioning. Understanding BPR is critical for the accurate valuation and effective conservation of biodiversity. Using ground-sourced data from 777,126 permanent plots, spanning 44 countries and most terrestrial biomes, we reveal a globally consistent positive concave-down BPR, showing that continued biodiversity loss would result in an accelerating decline in forest productivity worldwide. The value of biodiversity in maintaining commercial forest productivity alone - US$166 billion to 490 billion per year according to our estimation - is more than twice what it would cost to implement effective global conservation. This highlights the need for a worldwide reassessment of biodiversity values, forest management strategies, and conservation priorities. Peer Reviewed